BNP-prognoser och mål för inflationsprognoser - Sannolikhetsskattningar av framtida vändningspunkter i amerikansk och svensk BNP

Svensson (1997) föreslår att centralbanker på grund av implementerings- och utvärderingssvårigheter hos inflationsmål även bör ha ett mål för inflationsprognoser. Han argumenterar för detta med hjälp av en teoretisk modell som antar att den korta räntan, som centralbanken kontrollerar, påverkar BNP-gapet med en periods fördröjning, vilket sedan påverkar inflationen efter ännu en period. För att man ska kunna genomföra tillförlitliga inflationsprognoser krävs därför att man även kan prognostisera BNP-gapet med gott resultat. Nuvarande BNP-prognoser är dock oprecisa, vilket skapar problem i bedrivandet av penningpolitik. Uppsatsen undersöker därför om man istället kan prediktera vändningspunkter och konjunkturer i BNP med hjälp av en binär sannolikhetsmodell och sedan använda resultaten av dessa som underlag för att bestämma hur den korta räntan ska förändras. Närmare bestämt undersöks i uppsatsen om man med hjälp av probitmodellen kan prediktera konjunkturer och vändningspunkter i BNP ett, två och tre år framåt i tiden. Undersökningsländerna är USA och Sverige. Slutsatsen är att modellerna som testas i uppsatsen varken kan prediktera vändningspunkter eller konjunkturer

Public Policy, Household Finance and the Macroeconomy

The thesis contains four separate essays, spanning questions of the interaction between public policy, household finance and the macroeconomy. How does public policy affect macroeconomic outcomes, and the choices and welfare of households, and what are households’ optimal financial responses to changes in macroeconomic environments? Furthermore, the thesis includes a development of a method, which is helpful to answer questions like the ones stated above.  The first essay, Optimal Public Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy with Asymmetric Shocks, shows how fiscal policy can complement monetary policy. It is shown that fiscal policy can be used to improve macroeconomic outcomes and make the economy more efficient. Since fiscal policy, in general, includes more instruments than monetary policy, it is possible to neutralize several frictions in the economy simultaneously. This is shown in a general equilibrium model with dynastic households, where firms face monopolistic competition, sticky prices, productivity shocks and cost-push shocks.  The second essay, On the Design of Mortgage Default Legislation, asks how different types of mortgage contracts interact with different types of mortgage default policies regarding the probability of a default on home-owner’s mortgage. The different types of mortgage contracts analyzed are fixed rate annuity mortgages, adjustable rate amortized mortgages and adjustable rate non-amortized mortgages. The mortgage default policies span from non-recourse (where the mortgage lender takes all the default risk) to full recourse (where the borrower takes all the default risk). It is shown that a “borrower friendly” non-recourse policy is, as the one implemented in many parts of the United States, not necessarily borrower friendly due to its effect on the risk premium. This is investigated in a model with finitely lived households and an endogenous risk premium.  The third essay, On The Empirical Relevance of Cointegration Between Stock Market Returns and Labor Income on Optimal Portfolio Choice, investigates how finitely lived households optimally choose a portfolio consisting of risk-free bonds and risky equity, and how this choice is affected by the long-run correlation between risky (cumulative) equity returns and stochastic labor income. More specifically, I investigate if the empirical cointegration (long-run correlation) between the two variables is strong enough to affect the optimal portfolio choice.  It is shown that it is not. Cointegration exists between the two variables, but the speed-of-adjustment back to the cointegration equilibrium is to slow to have a significant effect on the households’ optimal portfolios.  The fourth essay, Solving Dynamic Programming Problems Using Stochastic Grids and Nearest-Neighbor Interpolation, describes a new computational method, which is used in the second and third essays. The method is developed to solve models with finitely lived households who face a complex economic environment. Post-state decision rules for the households are used together with simulated stochastic grids over the exogenous variables. By simulating the grids it is possible to reduce the number of grid points that the model is solved for, thereby making it significantly faster to solve models with many exogenous state variables. It is shown that it is possible to solve non-linear life-cycle models including at least eight state variables relatively quickly on a standard desktop computer.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p

World Business Cycles over Time and Scale

By transmissions of economic shocks from one country to another and through non-country specific shocks, the GDP growth of all countries might be more correlated than ever. This should have significant impact on individual countries’ stabilization policy. Therefore we want to know if there exists a world common cycle in output. To get more information about the cause for existence of these cycles we also investigate earlier periods. The time set is divided into three periods: the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and Post-Bretton Woods. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Components are then used to investigate if common cycles are found. If they are interpretable we test them against different variables with the help of Granger-Causality tests. We find a world cycle in the Gold Standard period and the modern period. The Gold Standard world cycle can be explained by specie flows to the US, while we do not find any causes for world cycles in the modern period

Två vägar att bli professor, eller vägen till två sorters professorer? Om befordringsreformen och dess implementering

Förutsättningarna för karriäravancemang inom högskolan ändrades radikalt den 1 januari 1999 då regeringen införde en bestämmelse om att man nu även skulle kunna befordras till professor. Vi ställde oss frågan om det bildats ett A- och B-lag bland professorerna som konsekvens av denna reform. Vi sökte ett svar på frågan genom att göra en jämförande fallstudie mellan Lunds universitet (LU) och Malmö högskola (MAH), och där se på generella löneskillnader mellan befordrade och rekryterade professorer. Därefter valdes en fakultet ut med höga löneskillnader och en med låga, från respektive lärosäte. På fakulteterna intervjuades en lektor, en befordrad professor och en rekryterad professor, vilka tillfrågades om arbetsvillkor och uppfattning om reformen. Materialet bearbetades sedan med implementeringsteori för att kunna ge oss svaret att det finns tendenser till bildandet av ett A- och B-lag på tre av de fyra undersökta fakulteterna

Clinical practice guidelines for evidence-based management of sedoanalgesia in critically ill adult patients

El óptimo manejo de la sedación, analgesia y delirium ofrece al paciente crítico comodidad y seguridad, facilita el buen desarrollo de medidas de soporte y manejo integral y disminuye complicaciones, impactando en un mejor desenlace. Actualizar la Guía de práctica clínica basada en la evidencia para el manejo de la sedoanalgesia en el paciente adulto críticamente enfermo publicada en Medicina Intensiva en el 2007 y dar recomendaciones para el manejo de la sedación, analgesia y delirium. Se reunió un grupo de 21 intensivistas procedentes de 9 países de la Federación Panamericana e Ibérica de Sociedades de Medicina Crítica y Terapia Intensiva, 3 de ellos además especialistas en epidemiología clínica y metodología para elaboración de guías. Se acogió la propuesta del Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group para emitir el grado de recomendación y evaluar la calidad de la evidencia. La fuerza de las recomendaciones fue calificada como 1 = fuerte, o 2 = débil, y la calidad de la evidencia como A = alta, B = moderada, o C = baja. Expertos en búsqueda de literatura apoyaron con esta estrategia de búsqueda: MEDLINE a través de PUBMED, bases de datos de la biblioteca Cochrane a través de The Cochrane Library y la base de datos Literatura Latinoamericana y del Caribe en Ciencias de la Salud. Los miembros asignados a las 11 secciones de la guía, basándose en la revisión de la literatura, presentaron las recomendaciones, sustentadas y discutidas en sesiones plenarias, aprobando aquellas que superaron el 80% del consenso. La elaboración de las guías contó con el soporte de la Asociación Colombiana de Medicina Crítica y Cuidado Intensivo. Para la elaboración de la guía fueron finalmente seleccionadas 467 referencias, observándose un importante aumento en el número y calidad de los estudios, permitiendo realizar 64 fuertes recomendaciones con evidencia alta y moderada, contrastando con las 28 de la edición anterior. Esta guía contiene recomendaciones y sugerencias basadas en la mejor evidencia para el manejo de la sedación, analgesia y delirium del paciente crítico, incluyendo un paquete de medidas (bundle). Se destacan: evaluación del dolor y la agitación/sedación mediante escalas; usar inicialmente opioides para el control de la analgesia, adicionando técnicas multimodales para disminuir consumo de opioides; promover el menor nivel de sedación necesario, evitando la sobresedación; en caso de requerir medicamentos sedantes, escoger el más apropiado, evitando el uso rutinario de benzodiazepinas; por último, identificar factores de riesgo para delirium, prevenirlo, diagnosticarlo y manejarlo, con el medicamento más conveniente, ya sea haloperidol, antipsicóticos atípicos o dexmedetomidina, evitando el uso de benzodiazepinas y disminuyendo el uso de opioides.Optimal management of sedation, analgesia and delirium offers comfort and security for the critical care patient, allows support measures to be applied more easily and enables an integral approach of medical care, at the same time that lowers the incidence of complications, wich translates in better patient outcomes. To update the Guía de práctica clínica basada en la evidencia para el manejo de la sedoanalgesia en el paciente adulto críticamente enfermo published in Medicina Intensiva in 2007, and give recommendations for the management of sedation, analgesia, and delirium. A group of 21 intensivists from 9 countries of the Federación Panamericana e Ibérica de Sociedades de Medicina Crítica y Terapia Intensiva, 3 of them also specialists in clinical epidemiology and methodology, gathered for the development of guidelines. Assessment of evidence quality and recommendations were made based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. Strength of recommendations was classified as 1 = strong, or 2 = weak, and quality of evidence as A = high, B = moderate, or C = low. Two authors searched the following databases: MEDLINE through PUBMED, The Cochrane Library and Literatura Latinoamericana y del Caribe en Ciencias de la Salud and retrieved pertinent information. Members assigned to the 11 sections of the guidelines, based on the literature review, formulated the recommendations, that were discussed in plenary sessions. Only those recommendations that achieved more than 80% of consensus were approved for the final document. The Colombian Association of Critical Medicine and Intensive Care (AMCI) supported the elaboration of this guidelines. Four hundred sixty-seven articles were included for review. An increase in number and quality of publications was observed. This allowed to generate 64 strong recommendations with high and moderate quality of evidence in contrast to the 28 recommendations of the previous edition. This Guidelines contains recommendations and suggestions based on the best evidence available for the management of sedation, analgesia and delirium of the critically ill patient, including a bundle of strategies that serves this purpose. We highlight the assessment of pain and agitation/sedation through validated scales, the use of opioids initially to apropiate analgesic control, associated with multimodal strategies in order to reduce opioide consumption; to promote the lowest level of sedation necessary avoiding over-sedation. Also, in case of the need of sedatives, choose the most appropiate for the patient needs, avoiding the use of benzodiazepines and identify risk factors for delirium, in order to prevent its occurrence, diagnose delirium and treat it with the most suitable pharmacological agent, whether it is haloperidol, atypical antipsychotics or dexmedetomidine, once again, avoiding the use of benzodiazepines and decreasing the use of opioids