Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet theyare inevitablyassociated withuncertainty.Identifying,quantifying,andcommunicatingthisuncertaintyis keytobothevaluatingtherisk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. Wereview howuncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employan approach developedin climatemodelling by breaking uncertainty down into(i) structural (model) uncertainty,(ii) initialization and internalvariabilityuncertainty,(iii)parametricuncertainty,and(iv)scenariouncertainty.Foreachuncertaintytype,wethenexaminethecurrent state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gainsontheseasonal-to-decadaltime-scale.Weconcludethatallpartsofmarinesciencecouldbenefitfromagreaterexchangeofideas,particularly concerningsuchauniversalproblemsuchasthetreatmentofuncertainty.Finally,marinescienceshouldstrivetoreachthepointwherescenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Study of the decays B->D_s1(2536)+ anti-D(*)

We report a study of the decays B -> D_s1(2536)+ anti-D(*), where anti-D(*) is anti-D0, D- or D*-, using a sample of 657 x 10^6 B anti-B pairs collected at the Upsilon(4S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e+e- collider. The branching fractions of the decays B+ -> D_s1(2536)+ anti-D0, B0 -> D_s1(2536)+ D- and B0 -> D_s1(2536)+ D*- multiplied by that of D_s1(2536)+ -> (D*0K+ + D*+K0) are found to be (3.97+-0.85+-0.56) x 10^-4, (2.75+-0.62+-0.36) x 10^-4 and (5.01+-1.21+-0.70) x 10^-4, respectively.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figues, submitted to PRD (RC

Gene family information facilitates variant interpretation and identification of disease-associated genes in neurodevelopmental disorders

Background Classifying pathogenicity of missense variants represents a major challenge in clinical practice during the diagnoses of rare and genetic heterogeneous neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs). While orthologous gene conservation is commonly employed in variant annotation, approximately 80% of known disease-associated genes belong to gene families. The use of gene family information for disease gene discovery and variant interpretation has not yet been investigated on a genome-wide scale. We empirically evaluate whether paralog-conserved or non-conserved sites in human gene families are important in NDDs. Methods Gene family information was collected from Ensembl. Paralog-conserved sites were defined based on paralog sequence alignments; 10,068 NDD patients and 2078 controls were statistically evaluated for de novo variant burden in gene families. Results We demonstrate that disease-associated missense variants are enriched at paralog-conserved sites across all disease groups and inheritance models tested. We developed a gene family de novo enrichment framework that identified 43 exome-wide enriched gene families including 98 de novo variant carrying genes in NDD patients of which 28 represent novel candidate genes for NDD which are brain expressed and under evolutionary constraint. Conclusion This study represents the first method to incorporate gene family information into a statistical framework to interpret variant data for NDDs and to discover new NDD-associated genes

Massive Peatland Carbon Banks Vulnerable to Rising Temperatures

Peatlands contain one-third of the world’s soil carbon (C). If destabilized, decomposition of this vast C bank could accelerate climate warming; however, the likelihood of this outcome remains unknown. Here, we examine peatland C stability through five years of whole-ecosystem warming and two years of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2). Warming exponentially increased methane (CH4) emissions and enhanced CH4 production rates throughout the entire soil profile; although surface CH4 production rates remain much greater than those at depth. Additionally, older deeper C sources played a larger role in decomposition following prolonged warming. Most troubling, decreases in CO2:CH4 ratios in gas production, porewater concentrations, and emissions, indicate that the peatland is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We observed limited evidence of eCO2 effects. Our results suggest that ecosystem responses are largely driven by surface peat, but that the vast C bank at depth in peatlands is responsive to prolonged warming

Studying the Underlying Event in Drell-Yan and High Transverse Momentum Jet Production at the Tevatron

We study the underlying event in proton-antiproton collisions by examining the behavior of charged particles (transverse momentum pT > 0.5 GeV/c, pseudorapidity |\eta| < 1) produced in association with large transverse momentum jets (~2.2 fb-1) or with Drell-Yan lepton-pairs (~2.7 fb-1) in the Z-boson mass region (70 < M(pair) < 110 GeV/c2) as measured by CDF at 1.96 TeV center-of-mass energy. We use the direction of the lepton-pair (in Drell-Yan production) or the leading jet (in high-pT jet production) in each event to define three regions of \eta-\phi space; toward, away, and transverse, where \phi is the azimuthal scattering angle. For Drell-Yan production (excluding the leptons) both the toward and transverse regions are very sensitive to the underlying event. In high-pT jet production the transverse region is very sensitive to the underlying event and is separated into a MAX and MIN transverse region, which helps separate the hard component (initial and final-state radiation) from the beam-beam remnant and multiple parton interaction components of the scattering. The data are corrected to the particle level to remove detector effects and are then compared with several QCD Monte-Carlo models. The goal of this analysis is to provide data that can be used to test and improve the QCD Monte-Carlo models of the underlying event that are used to simulate hadron-hadron collisions.Comment: Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Measurement of the W+W−W^+W^- Production Cross Section and Search for Anomalous WWγWW\gamma and WWZWWZ Couplings in ppˉp \bar p Collisions at s=1.96\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

This Letter describes the current most precise measurement of the $W$ boson pair production cross section and most sensitive test of anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings in $p \bar p$ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The $WW$ candidates are reconstructed from decays containing two charged leptons and two neutrinos, where the charged leptons are either electrons or muons. Using data collected by the CDF II detector from 3.6 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity, a total of 654 candidate events are observed with an expected background contribution of $320 \pm 47$ events. The measured total cross section is $\sigma (p \bar p \to W^+ W^- + X) = 12.1 \pm 0.9 \textrm{(stat)} ^{+1.6}_{-1.4} \textrm{(syst)}$ pb, which is in good agreement with the standard model prediction. The same data sample is used to place constraints on anomalous $WW\gamma$ and $WWZ$ couplings.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Observation of the Baryonic Flavor-Changing Neutral Current Decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-

We report the first observation of the baryonic flavor-changing neutral current decay Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- with 24 signal events and a statistical significance of 5.8 Gaussian standard deviations. This measurement uses ppbar collisions data sample corresponding to 6.8fb-1 at sqrt{s}=1.96TeV collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. The total and differential branching ratios for Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu- are measured. We find B(Lambda_b -> Lambda mu+ mu-) = [1.73+-0.42(stat)+-0.55(syst)] x 10^{-6}. We also report the first measurement of the differential branching ratio of B_s -> phi mu+ mu- using 49 signal events. In addition, we report branching ratios for B+ -> K+ mu+ mu-, B0 -> K0 mu+ mu-, and B -> K*(892) mu+ mu- decays.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Search for New Physics in Lepton + Photon + X Events with L=305 pb-1 of ppbar Collisions at roots=1.96 TeV

We present results of a search for anomalous production of events containing a charged lepton (either electron or muon) and a photon, both with high transverse momentum, accompanied by additional signatures, X, including missing transverse energy (MET) and additional leptons and photons. We use the same kinematic selection criteria as in a previous CDF search, but with a substantially larger data set, 305 pb-1, a ppbar collision energy of 1.96 TeV, and the upgraded CDF II detector. We find 42 Lepton+Photon+MET events versus a standard model expectation of 37.3 +- 5.4 events. The level of excess observed in Run I, 16 events with an expectation of 7.6 +- 0.7 events (corresponding to a 2.7 sigma effect), is not supported by the new data. In the signature of Multi-Lepton+Photon+X we observe 31 events versus an expectation of 23.0 +- 2.7 events. In this sample we find no events with an extra photon or MET and so find no events like the one ee+gg+MET event observed in Run I.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Accepted to PR