Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers

Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision-making. Such information is often communicated verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values (e.g., “.75”), yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individuals receive probability information in verbal rather than numerical point format. In four experiments (N = 213, 201, 26, and 343, respectively), we manipulated probability communication format between-subjects. Participants averaged and multiplied sets of four probabilities. Across experiments, arithmetic accuracy and coherence was significantly better with point than with verbal probabilities. These findings generalized between expert (intelligence analysts) and non-expert samples and when controlling for calculator use. Experiment 4 revealed an important qualification: whereas accuracy and coherence were better among participants presented with point probabilities than with verbal probabilities, imprecise numeric probability ranges (e.g., “.70 to .80”) afforded no computational advantage over verbal probabilities. Experiment 4 also revealed that the advantage of the point over the verbal format is partially mediated by strategy use. Participants presented with point estimates are more likely to use mental computation than guesswork, and mental computation was found to be associated with better accuracy. Our findings suggest that where computation is important, probability information should be communicated to end users with precise numeric probabilities

Effectiveness and safety of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use in the perioperative period

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Detection of Outflowing and Extraplanar Gas in Disks in an Assembling Galaxy Cluster at z=0.37

We detect ionized gas characteristics indicative of winds in three disk-dominated galaxies that are members of a super-group at z=0.37 that will merge to form a Coma-mass cluster. All three galaxies are IR-luminous (L_IR > 4 x 10^{10} L_sun, SFR >8 M_sun per year) and lie outside the X-ray cores of the galaxy groups. We find that the most IR-luminous galaxy has strong blue and redshifted emission lines with velocities of ~ +/-200 km/s and a third, blueshifted (~ 900 km/s) component. This galaxy's line-widths (Hb, [OIII]5007, [NII], Ha) correspond to velocities of 100-1000 km/s. We detect extraplanar gas in two of three galaxies with SFR > 8 M_sun per year whose orientations are approximately edge-on and which have IFU spaxels off the stellar disk. IFU maps reveal that the extraplanar gas extends to r_h ~ 10 kpc; [NII] and Ha line-widths correspond to velocities of ~200-400 km/s in the disk and decrease to ~50-150 km/s above the disk. Multi-wavelength observations indicate that the emission is dominated by star formation. Including the most IR-luminous galaxy we find that 18% of supergroup members with SFR > 8 M_sun per year show ionized gas characteristics indicative of outflows. This is a lower limit as showing that gas is outflowing in the remaining, moderately inclined, galaxies requires a non-trivial decoupling of contributions to the emission lines from rotational and turbulent motion. Ionized gas mass loss in these winds is ~0.1 M_sun per year for each galaxy, although the winds are likely to entrain significantly larger amounts of mass in neutral and molecular gas.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures (slightly degraded in quality), accepted for publication in ApJ

XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of three X-ray faint early-type galaxies

We present XMM-Newton observations of three X-ray under-luminous elliptical galaxies, NGC 3585, NGC 4494 and NGC 5322. All three galaxies have relatively large optical luminosities (log LB=10.35-10.67 solar) but have X-ray luminosities consistent with emission from discrete sources only. In conjunction with a Chandra observation of NGC 3585, we analyse the XMM data and show that the three galaxies are dominated by discrete source emission, but do possess some X-ray emitting gas. The gas is at relatively low temperatures, kT=0.25-0.44 keV. All three galaxies show evidence of recent dynamical disturbance and formation through mergers, including kinematically distinct cores, young stellar ages, and embedded stellar disks. This leads us to conclude that the galaxies formed relatively recently and have yet to build up large X-ray halos. They are likely to be in a developmental phase where the X-ray gas has a very low density, making it undetectable outside the galaxy core. However, if the gas is a product of stellar mass loss, as seems most probable, we would expect to observe supersolar metal abundances. While abundance is not well constrained by the data, we find best fit abundances <0.1 solar for single-temperature models, and it seems unlikely that we could underestimate the metallicity by such a large factor.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 12 pages, 8 postscript figure

Discs in early-type lensing galaxies: effects on magnification ratios and measurements of H0H_0

Observations of early-type galaxies, both in the local universe and in clusters at medium redshifts, suggest that these galaxies often contain discs or disc-like structures. Using the results of Kelson et al. (2000) for the incidence of disc-components among the galaxies in the redshift z=0.33 cluster CL 1358+62, we investigate the effect of disc structures on the lensing properties of early-type galaxies. Statistical properties, like magnification cross sections and the expected number of quad (four-image) lens systems, are not affected greatly by the inclusion of discs that contain less than about 10 per cent of the total stellar mass. However, the properties of individual lens systems are affected. We estimate that 10-30 per cent of all quad lens systems, with early-type deflector galaxies, would be affected measurably by the presence of disc components. Intriguingly, the image magnification ratios are altered significantly. The amplitude of the predicted change is sufficient to explain the observed magnification ratios in systems like B1422+231 without requiring compact substructure. Furthermore, time delays between images also change; fitting a bulge-only model to early-type lenses that in fact contain a disc would yield a value of the Hubble constant H_0 that is systematically too low by about 25 per cent.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 17 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables. Mainly minor changes to submitted version. Includes a more extended discussion on evidence of discs from light profile

CMB Telescopes and Optical Systems

The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) is now firmly established as a fundamental and essential probe of the geometry, constituents, and birth of the Universe. The CMB is a potent observable because it can be measured with precision and accuracy. Just as importantly, theoretical models of the Universe can predict the characteristics of the CMB to high accuracy, and those predictions can be directly compared to observations. There are multiple aspects associated with making a precise measurement. In this review, we focus on optical components for the instrumentation used to measure the CMB polarization and temperature anisotropy. We begin with an overview of general considerations for CMB observations and discuss common concepts used in the community. We next consider a variety of alternatives available for a designer of a CMB telescope. Our discussion is guided by the ground and balloon-based instruments that have been implemented over the years. In the same vein, we compare the arc-minute resolution Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). CMB interferometers are presented briefly. We conclude with a comparison of the four CMB satellites, Relikt, COBE, WMAP, and Planck, to demonstrate a remarkable evolution in design, sensitivity, resolution, and complexity over the past thirty years.Comment: To appear in: Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems (PSSS), Volume 1: Telescopes and Instrumentatio

Dark sectors 2016 Workshop: community report

This report, based on the Dark Sectors workshop at SLAC in April 2016, summarizes the scientific importance of searches for dark sector dark matter and forces at masses beneath the weak-scale, the status of this broad international field, the important milestones motivating future exploration, and promising experimental opportunities to reach these milestones over the next 5-10 years