An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. We describe an "early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This system, dubbed "Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night, and can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. The sensitivity of ATLAS permits detection of 140m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our galaxy, many micro-lensing events from stellar alignments, luminous stars and novae in nearby galaxies, thousands of supernovae, nearly a million quasars and active galactic nuclei, tens of millions of galaxies, and a billion stars. With two views per day ATLAS will make the variable universe as familiar to us as the sunrise and sunset.Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in PASP, Jan 201

Determining the Type, Redshift, and Phase of a Supernova Spectrum

We present an algorithm to identify the types of supernova spectra, and determine their redshift and phase. This algorithm, based on the correlation techniques of Tonry & Davis, is implemented in the SuperNova IDentification code (SNID). It is used by members of the ESSENCE project to determine whether a noisy spectrum of a high-redshift supernova is indeed of type Ia, as opposed to, e.g., type Ib/c. Furthermore, by comparing the correlation redshifts obtained using SNID with those determined from narrow lines in the supernova host galaxy spectrum, we show that accurate redshifts (with a typical error < 0.01) can be determined for SNe Ia for which a spectrum of the host galaxy is unavailable. Last, the phase of an input spectrum is determined with a typical accuracy of ~3 days.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "The Multicoloured Landscape of Compact Objects and their Explosive Progenitors: Theory vs Observations" (Cefalu, Sicily, June 2006). Eds. L. Burderi et al. (New York: AIP

Fuzzy Supernova Templates II: Parameter Estimation

Wide field surveys will soon be discovering Type Ia supernovae (SNe) at rates of several thousand per year. Spectroscopic follow-up can only scratch the surface for such enormous samples, so these extensive data sets will only be useful to the extent that they can be characterized by the survey photometry alone. In a companion paper (Rodney and Tonry, 2009) we introduced the SOFT method for analyzing SNe using direct comparison to template light curves, and demonstrated its application for photometric SN classification. In this work we extend the SOFT method to derive estimates of redshift and luminosity distance for Type Ia SNe, using light curves from the SDSS and SNLS surveys as a validation set. Redshifts determined by SOFT using light curves alone are consistent with spectroscopic redshifts, showing a root-mean-square scatter in the residuals of RMS_z=0.051. SOFT can also derive simultaneous redshift and distance estimates, yielding results that are consistent with the currently favored Lambda-CDM cosmological model. When SOFT is given spectroscopic information for SN classification and redshift priors, the RMS scatter in Hubble diagram residuals is 0.18 mags for the SDSS data and 0.28 mags for the SNLS objects. Without access to any spectroscopic information, and even without any redshift priors from host galaxy photometry, SOFT can still measure reliable redshifts and distances, with an increase in the Hubble residuals to 0.37 mags for the combined SDSS and SNLS data set. Using Monte Carlo simulations we predict that SOFT will be able to improve constraints on time-variable dark energy models by a factor of 2-3 with each new generation of large-scale SN surveys.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, accepted to ApJ; paper 1 is arXiv:0910.370

K-band versus I-band Surface Brightness Fluctuations as distance indicators

We evaluate the method of optical and infrared Surface Brightness Fluctuations (SBF) as a distance indicator and its application on 8-m class telescopes, such as the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The novelty of our approach resides in the development of Monte Carlo simulations of SBF observations incorporating realistic elliptical galaxy stellar population models, the effects induced by globular clusters and background galaxies, instrumental noise, sky background and PSF blurring. We discuss, for each band and in different observational conditions, the errors on distance measurements arising from stellar population effects, data treatment and observational constraints. With 8-m class telescopes, one can extend I-band SBF measurements out to 6000-10000 km/s. Integration times in the K-band are too expensive from the ground, due to the high infrared background for large-scale distance determination projects. Nevertheless ground-based K-band measurements are necessary to understand stellar population effects on the SBF calibration, and to prepare future space-based observations, where this band is more efficient.Comment: A&A, in press, 17 pages, 10 figure

Distances from Surface Brightness Fluctuations

The practice of measuring galaxy distances from their spatial fluctuations in surface brightness is now a decade old. While several past articles have included some review material, this is the first intended as a comprehensive review of the surface brightness fluctuation (SBF) method. The method is conceptually quite simple, the basic idea being that nearby (but unresolved) star clusters and galaxies appear "bumpy", while more distant ones appear smooth. This is quantified via a measurement of the amplitude of the Poisson fluctuations in the number of unresolved stars encompassed by a CCD pixel (usually in an image of an elliptical galaxy). Here, we describe the technical details and difficulties involved in making SBF measurements, discuss theoretical and empirical calibrations of the method, and review the numerous applications of the method from the ground and space, in the optical and near-infrared. We include discussions of stellar population effects and the "universality" of the SBF standard candle. A final section considers the future of the method.Comment: Invited review article to appear in: `Post-Hipparcos Cosmic Candles', A. Heck & F. Caputo (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in press. 22 pages, including 3 postscript figures; uses Kluwer's crckapb.sty LaTex macro file, enclose

The observed infall of galaxies towards the Virgo cluster

We examine the velocity field of galaxies around the Virgo cluster induced by its overdensity. A sample of 1792 galaxies with distances from the Tip of the Red Giant Branch, the Cepheid luminosity, the SNIa luminosity, the surface brightness fluctuation method, and the Tully-Fisher relation has been used to study the velocity-distance relation in the Virgocentric coordinates. Attention was paid to some observational biases affected the Hubble flow around Virgo. We estimate the radius of the zero-velocity surface for the Virgo cluster to be within (5.0 - 7.5) Mpc corresponding to (17 - 26)^\circ at the mean cluster distance of 17.0 Mpc. In the case of spherical symmetry with cosmological parameter \Omega_m=0.24 and the age of the Universe T_0= 13.7 Gyr, it yields the total mass of the Virgo cluster to be within M_T=(2.7 - 8.9) * 10^{14} M_\sun in reasonable agreement with the existing virial mass estimates for the cluster.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA