Augmenting the Participatory Design Concept in Systems Development

Participatory Design (PD) is an effective tool for designing organizational systems where views, aspirations and the input of both the system users and developers are sought and reconciled in the development of a system. This paper attempts to highlight and identify the fit between the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) as applied in systems development and the tools of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) as applied in manufacturing and how that fit does enhance Participatory Design in systems development. By recognizing the complementarities of the tools of these two approaches (SSM and QFD), we can enhance Participatory Design in systems development. Findings from literature review show that a comprehensive application of this concept is yet to be done in information systems development. The approach builds on the seven phases of Soft Systems Methodology by applying the Quality Function Deployment techniques to elicit information from complex and amorphous real-world situations to augment the Participatory Design process.Keywords: Participatory Design; Soft Systems Methodology; Quality Function Deployment; House of Qualit

Organizational Culture and Information Systems Implementation: A Structuration Theory Perspective

The structure and culture of an organization does affect implementation of projects. In this paper we try to identify organizational factors that could affect the implementation efforts of an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS). The information system in question has taken overtly a long time and it’s not complete yet. We set out to find out whether organizational issues are at play in this particular project. The project under study is a large-scale integrated information system which aims at strengthening and further developing Financial Management Information in the wider public service in Kenya. We borrow concepts from Structuration Theory as applied in sociology to understand the organizational perspective in the project. We use the theory to help explain some of the meanings, norms and issues of power experienced during the implementation of the IFMIS. Without ruling out problems of technological nature, the findings suggest that many of the problems in the IFMIS implementation may be attributed to organizational factors, and that certain issues are related to the existing organization culture within government

Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya

We estimate the potential value of general circulation model (GCM)-based seasonal precipitation forecasts for maize planting and fertilizer management decisions at two semi-arid locations (Katumani and Makindu) in Southern Kenya. Analyses combine downscaled rainfall forecasts, crop yield simulation, stochastic enterprise budgeting and identification of profit-maximizing fertilizer N rates and stand densities. October–February rainfall predictions were downscaled from a GCM, run with both observed and forecast sea surface temperature boundary conditions – representing upper and lower bounds of predictability – and stochastically disaggregated into daily crop model inputs. Simulated interactive effects of rainfall, N supply and stand density on yield and profit are consistent with literature. Perfect foreknowledge of daily weather for the growing season would be worth an estimated 15–30% of the average gross value of production and 24–69% of average gross margin, depending on location and on whether household labor is included in cost calculations. GCM predictions based on observed sea surface temperatures increased average gross margins 24% at Katumani and 9% at Makindu when labor cost was included. At the lead time used, forecasts using forecast sea surface temperatures are not skillful and showed nearzero value. Forecast value was much more sensitive to grain price than to input costs. Stochastic dominance analysis shows that farmers at any level of risk aversion would prefer the forecast-based management strategy over management optimized for climatology under the study’s assumptions, despite high probability (25% at Katumani, 34% at Makindu) of lower returns in individual years. Results contribute to knowledge of seasonal forecast value in a relatively high-risk, high-predictability context; utility and value of forecasts derived from a GCM; and risk implications of smallholder farmers responding to forecasts

Indian Ocean Dipole drives malaria resurgence in East African highlands

Malaria resurgence in African highlands in the 1990s has raised questions about the underlying drivers of the increase in disease incidence including the role of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, climatic anomalies other than the ENSO are clearly associated with malaria outbreaks in the highlands. Here we show that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean, affected highland malaria re-emergence. Using cross-wavelet coherence analysis, we found four-year long coherent cycles between the malaria time series and the dipole mode index (DMI) in the 1990s in three highland localities. Conversely, we found a less pronounced coherence between malaria and DMI in lowland localities. The highland/lowland contrast can be explained by the effects of mesoscale systems generated by Lake Victoria on its climate basin. Our results support the need to consider IOD as a driving force in the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010

Recent special reports on climate extremes have shown evidences of changes in the patterns of climate extremes at global, regional and local scales. Understanding the characteristics of climate extremes at regional and local levels is critical not only for the development of preparedness and early warning systems, but is also fundamental in the development of any adaptation strategies. There is still very limited knowledge regarding the past, present and future patterns of climate extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). This study, which was supported by the World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (WB-GFDRR) and implemented by the World Meteorological Organization, was organized in terms of three workshops with three main objectives; (1) analysis of daily rainfall and temperature extremes for ten countries in the GHA region using observed in situ data running from 1971 to 2006, (2) assessing whether the United Kingdom Met-office and Hadley centre Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (UK-PRECIS) modelling system can provide realistic representation of the past and present climate extremes as observed by available in situ data, and (3) studying the future regional climate extremes under different scenarios to further assess the expected changes in climate extremes.This paper, therefore, uses the outputs of these workshops and also includes post-workshop analyses to assess the changes of climate extremes within the GHA. The results showed a significant decrease in total precipitation in wet days greater than 1mm and increasing warm extremes, particularly at night, while cold extremes are decreasing. Considering a combination of geophysical models and satellite gravimetry observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission in the frame of GRACE daily Kalman-smoothing models, for the years 2002 to 2010, we explored a decline in total water storage variations over the GHA

Potential impacts of climate and environmental change on the stored water of Lake Victoria Basin and economic implications

The changing climatic patterns and increasing human population within the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), together with overexploitation of water for economic activities call for assessment of water management for the entire basin. This study focused on the analysis of a combination of available in situ climate data, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and high resolution Regional Climate simulations during recent decade(s) to assess the water storage changes within LVB that may be linked to recent climatic variability/changes and anomalies. We employed trend analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and temporal/spatial correlations to explore the associations and covariability among LVB stored water, rainfall variability, and large-scale forcings associated with El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Potential economic impacts of human and climate-induced changes in LVB stored water are also explored.Overall, observed in situ rainfall from lake-shore stations showed a modest increasing trend during the recent decades. The dominant patterns of rainfall data from the TRMM satellite estimates suggest that the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation have not changed much during the period of 1998–2012 over the basin consistent with in situ observations. However, GRACE-derived water storage changes over LVB indicate an average decline of 38.2 mm/yr for 2003–2006, likely due to the extension of the Owen Fall/Nalubale dam, and an increase of 4.5 mm/yr over 2007–2013, likely due to two massive rainfalls in 2006–2007 and 2010–2011. The temporal correlations between rainfall and ENSO/IOD indices during the study period, based on TRMM and model simulations, suggest significant influence of large-scale forcing on LVB rainfall, and thus stored water. The contributions of ENSO and IOD on the amplitude of TRMM-rainfall and GRACE-derived water storage changes, for the period of 2003–2013, are estimated to be ~2.5 cm and ~1.5 cm, respectively

Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models

This study presents potential future variations of mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa (EA) based on five models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. In this study, climate simulations of two timeframes, a baseline period (1961–1990) and projection period (2071–2100), are compared. The models reproduce EA's bimodal rainfall pattern but overestimate and underestimate seasonal rainfall of October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM), respectively. Rainfall is projected to increase under the two scenarios. Larger increases in rainfall will occur during the OND season than during the MAM season and in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. During the last half of the 21st century, EA is likely to warm by 1.7–2.8 and 2.2–5.4 °C under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the baseline period. Scenario uncertainty is projected to exceed model uncertainty from the middle to the end of the 21st century. The central parts of Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin will witness the highest increases in seasonal rainfall. The probability density functions (PDFs) of future seasonal rainfall show a positive shift and a statistically insignificant increase in variance relative to the baseline. Thus, EA is likely to experience an increase in extreme rainfall events. Understanding the future climate variability in EA is important for planning purposes but these results are based on relatively course resolution models prone to bias and therefore should be used with caution. There is a need for further research on climate projections over EA, including determining the causes of the poor performance of global models in reproducing rainfall climatology and trends over the region

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Eastern Africa Rainfall

This study evaluates the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall patterns over eastern Africa. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and interannual variability of RCM output have been assessed over three homogeneous subregions against a number of observational datasets. The ability of the RCMs in simulating large-scale global climate forcing signals is further assessed by compositing the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. It is found that most RCMs reasonably simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology over the three subregions and also reproduce the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO and IOD forcings. At the same time the analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on subregion and season; however, the ensemble mean has better agreement with observation than individual models. In general, the analysis herein demonstrates that the multimodel ensemble mean simulates eastern Africa rainfall adequately and can therefore be used for the assessment of future climate projections for the region