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Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 degrees C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 degrees C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats

Designating Spatial Priorities for Marine Biodiversity Conservation in the Coral Triangle

To date, most marine protected areas (MPAs) have been designated on an ad hoc basis. However, a comprehensive regional and global network should be designed to be representative of all aspects of biodiversity, including populations, species, and biogenic habitats. A good exemplar would be the Coral Triangle (CT) because it is the most species rich area in the ocean but only 2% of its area is in any kind of MPA. Our analysis consisted of five different groups of layers of biodiversity features: biogenic habitat, species richness, species of special conservation concern, restricted range species, and areas of importance for sea turtles. We utilized the systematic conservation planning software Zonation as a decision-support tool to ensure representation of biodiversity features while balancing selection of protected areas based on the likelihood of threats. Our results indicated that the average representation of biodiversity features within the existing MPA system is currently about 5%. By systematically increasing MPA coverage to 10% of the total area of the CT, the average representation of biodiversity features within the MPA system would increase to over 37%. Marine areas in the Halmahera Sea, the outer island arc of the Banda Sea, the Sulu Archipelago, the Bismarck Archipelago, and the Malaita Islands were identified as priority areas for the designation of new MPAs. Moreover, we recommended that several existing MPAs be expanded to cover additional biodiversity features within their adjacent areas, including MPAs in Indonesia (e.g., in the Birds Head of Papua), the Philippines (e.g., in the northwestern part of the Sibuyan Sea), Malaysia (e.g., in the northern part of Sabah), Papua New Guinea (e.g., in the Milne Bay Province), and the Solomon Islands (e.g., around Santa Isabel Island). An MPA system that covered 30% of the CT would include 65% of the biodiversity features. That just two-thirds of biodiversity was represented by one-third of the study area supports calls for at least 30% of the ocean to be in no-fishing MPA. This assessment provides a blueprint for efficient gains in marine conservation through the extension of the current MPA system in the CT region. Moreover, similar data could be compiled for other regions, and globally, to design ecologically representative MPAs

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals\u27 natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5)

Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts

Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement

International audienceIncreasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning

Impacts of climate change on World Heritage coral reefs: a first global scientific assessment

Since 1972, the UNESCO World Heritage Convention has united the world around a shared responsibility to protect natural and cultural places of Outstanding Universal Value (OUV). The World Heritage List includes 29 natural, marine properties that contain coral reef systems. Stretching around the planet, these globally significant reefs include icons such as the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (Kiribati), the Great Barrier Reef (Australia), Papahānaumokuākea (USA), Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (Belize) and Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park (Philippines). They are recognized for their unique and global importance and for being part of the common heritage of humanity. Coral reefs are ecologically and economically important ecosystems found across the world’s tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Despite covering less than 0.1% of the ocean floor, reefs host more than one quarter of all marine fish species (in addition to many other marine animals). They are the most inherently biodiverse ecosystems in the ocean – comparable to rainforests on land. These ‘Rainforests of the Sea’ provide social, economic and cultural services with an estimated value of over USD $1 Trillion globally. For example, the complex three-dimensional structure of reefs not only provides habitat but also dissipates wave energy to protect coastlines from erosion and damage. Coastal protection and human use (including tourism, recreation and fishing) supply the greatest economic benefits from coral reefs to over half a billion people around the world. Despite their importance and value, most coral reefs are under enormous pressure from a range of different human activities globally including agricultural run-off, urban development, and over-fishing. Superimposed on these local threats, increased ocean temperature has caused the death of corals around the world in recent years. At this point, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by human activity is the greatest threat to coral reefs globally, primarily due to ocean warming but also due to ocean acidification that ensues

Evaluating annual severe coral bleaching risk for marine protected areas across Indonesia

Coral reefs face an uncertain future under global climate change, with thermal-induced bleaching increasing in frequency such that corals will soon experience annual severe bleaching (ASB). Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are therefore becoming increasingly important as a conservation tool. Here we evaluate (i) Indonesia’s coral reefs’ spatial variation in ASB, (ii) whether reefs projected to have a later onset of ASB (i.e. possible climate refugia) are protected within MPAs, and (iii) the ASB risk profiles for reefs related to MPAs receiving priority investments. Our results highlight considerable variability across Indonesia’s reefs being at risk of ASB. The ASB risk before 2028 is greater for coral reefs protected by MPAs versus those outside MPA boundaries. The ASB risk before 2025 is greater for coral reefs protected by priority MPAs versus those protected by non-priority MPAs. Overall, our results show that only ∼45% of the coral reef areas that are currently located within MPAs will likely act as thermal refugia (ASB > 2044). This is unsurprising given that the MPA network in Indonesia has been established over many decades, with most MPAs designated before suitable bleaching risk projections were available to inform MPA placement. Our results highlight the scope to further incorporate potential climate refugia for reefs into new MPA designations. This study also provides strategic information, which can support the development of Indonesia’s long-term MPA and coral reef conservation strategy to effectively manage, mitigate, and adapt to the impacts of climate change on coral reefs