Blame it on the goats? Desertification in the Near East during the Holocene

The degree to which desertification during the Holocene resulted from climatic deterioration or alternatively from overgrazing has puzzled Quaternary scientists in many arid regions of the world. In the research reported upon here, a multi-disciplinary investigation of a 5-m deep, ~11,000-year-old sediment column excavated in a dry lake bed in southern Jordan revealed an early interval in which proxies of plant cover and sheep/goat stocking rates co-varied directly with climatic cycles. Beginning ~5.6 kcal BP, however, this pattern changed with fecal spherulite and phytolith densities failing to co-vary and with spherulites often greatly exceeding phytolith densities, which we suggest is indicative of overgrazing. Moreover, the lack of agreement between the high phytolith densities and other indicators of a desert landscape (i.e. geomorphic and palynologic) suggests that phytolith densities were inflated by fodder subsidies and as such are not entirely reflective of plant cover for this later interval. Given the co-incidental emergence of overgrazing with archaeological evidence for a marked rise in regional population, emergence of widespread trade, and expansion of the Timnian pastoral complex during Chalcolithic–early Bronze times, we argue that desertification was a consequence of socio-economic factors (e.g. higher stocking rates) associated with a shift from a subsistence to a market economy. In addition, we contend that the signature lithic artifact variety (tabular scraper) that appeared in great abundance during this period was directly tied to the emergent market economy and its secondary products (wool) in having been used to shear sheep. Moreover, in that these changes took place largely concurrent with local and regionally recognized evidence of a moist interval, we conclude that the mid- to late-Holocene desertification of the southern Levant was induced more by anthropogenic than climatic factors

Over half of the far-infrared background light comes from galaxies at z >= 1.2

Submillimetre surveys during the past decade have discovered a population of luminous, high-redshift, dusty starburst galaxies. In the redshift range 1 <= z <= 4, these massive submillimetre galaxies go through a phase characterized by optically obscured star formation at rates several hundred times that in the local Universe. Half of the starlight from this highly energetic process is absorbed and thermally re-radiated by clouds of dust at temperatures near 30 K with spectral energy distributions peaking at 100 microns in the rest frame. At 1 <= z <= 4, the peak is redshifted to wavelengths between 200 and 500 microns. The cumulative effect of these galaxies is to yield extragalactic optical and far-infrared backgrounds with approximately equal energy densities. Since the initial detection of the far-infrared background (FIRB), higher-resolution experiments have sought to decompose this integrated radiation into the contributions from individual galaxies. Here we report the results of an extragalactic survey at 250, 350 and 500 microns. Combining our results at 500 microns with those at 24 microns, we determine that all of the FIRB comes from individual galaxies, with galaxies at z >= 1.2 accounting for 70 per cent of it. As expected, at the longest wavelengths the signal is dominated by ultraluminous galaxies at z > 1.Comment: Accepted to Nature. Maps available at http://blastexperiment.info

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Whole Earth Telescope Observations of the Helium Interacting Binary PG 1346+082 (CR Bootis)

We present our analysis of 240 hr of white-light, high-speed photometry of the dwarf nova-like helium variable PG 1346+082 (CR Boo). We identify two frequencies in the low-state power spectrum, at 679.670 ± 0.004 μHz and 669.887 ± 0.008 μHz. The 679.670 μHz variation is coherent over at least a 2 week time span, the first demonstration of a phase-coherent photometric variation in any dwarf nova-like interacting binary white dwarf system. The high-state power spectrum contains a complex fundamental with a frequency similar, but not identical, to the low-state spectrum, and a series of harmonics not detected in low state. We also uncover an unexpected dependence of the high-frequency power\u27s amplitude and frequency structure on overall system magnitude. We discuss these findings in light of the general AM CVn system model, particularly the implications of the high-order harmonics on future studies of disk structure, mass transfer, and disk viscosity

Direct Measurements of the Convective Recycling of the Upper Troposphere

We present a statistical representation of the aggregate effects of deep convection on the chemistry and dynamics of the Upper Troposphere (UT) based on direct aircraft observations of the chemical composition of the UT over the Eastern United States and Canada during summer. These measurements provide new and unique observational constraints on the chemistry occurring downwind of convection and the rate at which air in the UT is recycled, previously only the province of model analyses. These results provide quantitative measures that can be used to evaluate global climate and chemistry models

Is Higher Viral Load in the Upper Respiratory Tract Associated With Severe Pneumonia? Findings From the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: The etiologic inference of identifying a pathogen in the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with pneumonia is unclear. To determine if viral load could provide evidence of causality of pneumonia, we compared viral load in the URT of children with World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia and age-matched community controls. METHODS.: In the 9 developing country sites, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with and without pneumonia were tested using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for 17 viruses. The association of viral load with case status was evaluated using logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine optimal discriminatory viral load cutoffs. Viral load density distributions were plotted. RESULTS.: The mean viral load was higher in cases than controls for 7 viruses. However, there was substantial overlap in viral load distribution of cases and controls for all viruses. ROC curves to determine the optimal viral load cutoff produced an area under the curve of <0.80 for all viruses, suggesting poor to fair discrimination between cases and controls. Fatal and very severe pneumonia cases did not have higher viral load than less severe cases for most viruses. CONCLUSIONS.: Although we found higher viral loads among pneumonia cases than controls for some viruses, the utility in using viral load of URT specimens to define viral pneumonia was equivocal. Our analysis was limited by lack of a gold standard for viral pneumonia

Evaluation of Pneumococcal Load in Blood by Polymerase Chain Reaction for the Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Young Children in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND.: Detection of pneumococcus by lytA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in blood had poor diagnostic accuracy for diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia in children in 9 African and Asian sites. We assessed the value of blood lytA quantification in diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS.: The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study tested whole blood by PCR for pneumococcus in children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with signs of pneumonia and in age-frequency matched community controls. The distribution of load among PCR-positive participants was compared between microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) cases, cases confirmed for nonpneumococcal pathogens, nonconfirmed cases, and controls. Receiver operating characteristic analyses determined the "optimal threshold" that distinguished MCPP cases from controls. RESULTS.: Load was available for 290 of 291 cases with pneumococcal PCR detected in blood and 273 of 273 controls. Load was higher in MCPP cases than controls (median, 4.0 × 103 vs 0.19 × 103 copies/mL), but overlapped substantially (range, 0.16-989.9 × 103 copies/mL and 0.01-551.9 × 103 copies/mL, respectively). The proportion with high load (≥2.2 log10 copies/mL) was 62.5% among MCPP cases, 4.3% among nonconfirmed cases, 9.3% among cases confirmed for a nonpneumococcal pathogen, and 3.1% among controls. Pneumococcal load in blood was not associated with respiratory tract illness in controls (P = .32). High blood pneumococcal load was associated with alveolar consolidation on chest radiograph in nonconfirmed cases, and with high (>6.9 log10 copies/mL) nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal load and C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L (both P < .01) in nonconfirmed cases but not controls. CONCLUSIONS.: Quantitative pneumococcal PCR in blood has limited diagnostic utility for identifying pneumococcal pneumonia in individual children, but may be informative in epidemiological studies

Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia in Infants and Children From Low- and Middle-Income Countries Participating in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND:  Few data exist describing pertussis epidemiology among infants and children in low- and middle-income countries to guide preventive strategies. METHODS:  Children 1-59 months of age hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 African and Asian countries and similarly aged community controls were enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study. They underwent a standardized clinical evaluation and provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and induced sputum (cases only) for Bordetella pertussis polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors and pertussis-associated clinical findings were identified. RESULTS:  Bordetella pertussis was detected in 53 of 4200 (1.3%) cases and 11 of 5196 (0.2%) controls. In the age stratum 1-5 months, 40 (2.3% of 1721) cases were positive, all from African sites, as were 8 (0.5% of 1617) controls. Pertussis-positive African cases 1-5 months old, compared to controls, were more often human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) uninfected-exposed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.2), unvaccinated (aOR, 3.7), underweight (aOR, 6.3), and too young to be immunized (aOR, 16.1) (all P ≤ .05). Compared with pertussis-negative African cases in this age group, pertussis-positive cases were younger, more likely to vomit (aOR, 2.6), to cough ≥14 days (aOR, 6.3), to have leukocyte counts >20 000 cells/µL (aOR, 4.6), and to have lymphocyte counts >10 000 cells/µL (aOR, 7.2) (all P ≤ .05). The case fatality ratio of pertussis-infected pneumonia cases 1-5 months of age was 12.5% (95% confidence interval, 4.2%-26.8%; 5/40); pertussis was identified in 3.7% of 137 in-hospital deaths among African cases in this age group. CONCLUSIONS:  In the postneonatal period, pertussis causes a small fraction of hospitalized pneumonia cases and deaths; however, case fatality is substantial. The propensity to infect unvaccinated infants and those at risk for insufficient immunity (too young to be vaccinated, premature, HIV-infected/exposed) suggests that the role for maternal vaccination should be considered along with efforts to reduce exposure to risk factors and to optimize childhood pertussis vaccination coverage

Safety of Induced Sputum Collection in Children Hospitalized With Severe or Very Severe Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND.: Induced sputum (IS) may provide diagnostic information about the etiology of pneumonia. The safety of this procedure across a heterogeneous population with severe pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries has not been described. METHODS.: IS specimens were obtained as part a 7-country study of the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in hospitalized children <5 years of age. Rigorous clinical monitoring was done before, during, and after the procedure to record oxygen requirement, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, consciousness level, and other evidence of clinical deterioration. Criteria for IS contraindications were predefined and serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported to ethics committees and a central safety monitor. RESULTS.: A total of 4653 IS procedures were done among 3802 children. Thirteen SAEs were reported in relation to collection of IS, or 0.34% of children with at least 1 IS specimen collected (95% confidence interval, 0.15%-0.53%). A drop in oxygen saturation that required supplemental oxygen was the most common SAE. One child died after feeding was reinitiated 2 hours after undergoing sputum induction; this death was categorized as "possibly related" to the procedure. CONCLUSIONS.: The overall frequency of SAEs was very low, and the nature of most SAEs was manageable, demonstrating a low-risk safety profile for IS collection even among severely ill children in low-income-country settings. Healthcare providers should monitor oxygen saturation and requirements during and after IS collection, and assess patients prior to reinitiating feeding after the IS procedure, to ensure patient safety

Standalone vertex finding in the ATLAS muon spectrometer

A dedicated reconstruction algorithm to find decay vertices in the ATLAS muon spectrometer is presented. The algorithm searches the region just upstream of or inside the muon spectrometer volume for multi-particle vertices that originate from the decay of particles with long decay paths. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using both a sample of simulated Higgs boson events, in which the Higgs boson decays to long-lived neutral particles that in turn decay to bbar b final states, and pp collision data at √s = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC during 2011