Refugia and connectivity sustain amphibian metapopulations afflicted by disease

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes depends on habitat patches that can support resilient local populations and sufficient connectivity between patches. Yet epidemiological theory for metapopulations has largely overlooked the capacity of particular patches to act as refuges from disease, and has suggested that connectivity can undermine persistence. Here, we show that relatively warm and saline wetlands are environmental refuges from chytridiomycosis for an endangered Australian frog, and act jointly with connectivity to sustain frog metapopulations. We coupled models of microclimate and infection probability to map chytrid prevalence, and demonstrate a strong negative relationship between chytrid prevalence and the persistence of frog populations. Simulations confirm that frog metapopulations are likely to go extinct when they lack environmental refuges from disease and lose connectivity between patches. This study demonstrates that environmental heterogeneity can mediate host-pathogen interactions in fragmented landscapes, and provides evidence that connectivity principally supports host metapopulations afflicted by facultative pathogens

Red hot frogs:Identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change

The Essential Role for Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry

Laboratory studies of atmospheric chemistry characterize the nature of atmospherically relevant processes down to the molecular level, providing fundamental information used to assess how human activities drive environmental phenomena such as climate change, urban air pollution, ecosystem health, indoor air quality, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have a central role in addressing the incomplete fundamental knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. This article highlights the evolving science needs for this community and emphasizes how our knowledge is far from complete, hindering our ability to predict the future state of our atmosphere and to respond to emerging global environmental change issues. Laboratory studies provide rich opportunities to expand our understanding of the atmosphere via collaborative research with the modeling and field measurement communities, and with neighboring disciplines

The Essential Role for Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry

Laboratory studies of atmospheric chemistry characterize the nature of atmospherically relevant processes down to the molecular level, providing fundamental information used to assess how human activities drive environmental phenomena such as climate change, urban air pollution, ecosystem health, indoor air quality, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have a central role in addressing the incomplete fundamental knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. This article highlights the evolving science needs for this community and emphasizes how our knowledge is far from complete, hindering our ability to predict the future state of our atmosphere and to respond to emerging global environmental change issues. Laboratory studies provide rich opportunities to expand our understanding of the atmosphere via collaborative research with the modeling and field measurement communities, and with neighboring disciplines

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Interspecific variation in the phenology of advertisement calling in a temperate Australian frog community

Spatial and temporal partitioning of resources underlies the coexistence of species with similar niches. In communities of frogs and toads, the phenology of advertisement calling provides insights into temporal partitioning of reproductive effort and its implications for community dynamics. This study assessed the phenology of advertisement calling in an anuran community from Melbourne, in southern Australia. We collated data from 1432 surveys of 253 sites and used logistic regression to quantify seasonality in the nightly probability of calling and the influence of meteorological variables on this probability for six species of frogs. We found limited overlap in the predicted seasonal peaks of calling among these species. Those shown to have overlapping calling peaks are unlikely to be in direct competition, due to differences in larval ecology (Crinia signifera and Litoria ewingii) or differences in calling behavior and acoustics (Limnodynastes dumerilii and Litoria raniformis). In contrast, closely related and ecologically similar species (Crinia signfera and Crinia parinsignifera; Litoria ewingii and Litoria verreauxii) appear to have staggered seasonal peaks of calling. In combination with interspecific variation in the meteorological correlates of calling, these results may be indicative of temporal partitioning of reproductive activity to facilitate coexistence, as has been reported for tropical and temperate anurans from other parts of the globe

Dealing with trade-offs in destructive sampling designs for occupancy surveys

Occupancy surveys should be designed to minimise false absences. This is commonly achieved by increasing replication or increasing the efficiency of surveys. In the case of destructive sampling designs, in which searches of individual microhabitats represent the repeat surveys, minimising false absences leads to an inherent trade-off. Surveyors can sample more low quality microhabitats, bearing the resultant financial costs and producing wider-spread impacts, or they can target high quality microhabitats were the focal species is more likely to be found and risk more severe impacts on local habitat quality. We show how this trade-off can be solved with a decision-theoretic approach, using the Millewa Skink Hemiergis millewae from southern Australia as a case study. Hemiergis millewae is an endangered reptile that is best detected using destructive sampling of grass hummocks. Within sites that were known to be occupied by H. millewae, logistic regression modelling revealed that lizards were more frequently detected in large hummocks. If this model is an accurate representation of the detection process, searching large hummocks is more efficient and requires less replication, but this strategy also entails destruction of the best microhabitats for the species. We developed an optimisation tool to calculate the minimum combination of the number and size of hummocks to search to achieve a given cumulative probability of detecting the species at a site, incorporating weights to reflect the sensitivity of the results to a surveyor's priorities. The optimisation showed that placing high weight on minimising volume necessitates impractical replication, whereas placing high weight on minimising replication requires searching very large hummocks which are less common and may be vital for H. millewae. While destructive sampling methods are sometimes necessary, surveyors must be conscious of the ecological impacts of these methods. This study provides a simple tool for identifying sampling strategies that minimise those impacts

Integrating variability in detection probabilities when designing wildlife surveys : a case study of amphibians from south-eastern Australia

Occupancy-based monitoring programs rely on survey data to infer presence or absence of the target species. However, species may occupy a site and go undetected, leading to erroneous inference of absence ('false absence'). If detectability is influenced by the time of year or weather conditions, survey protocols can be adjusted to minimize the chance of false absences. In this study, detection probabilities for three amphibian species from south-eastern Australia were modelled using a Bayesian approach. For aural surveys, we compared basic models, which only included effects of survey date, duration and time of day on detection, to models including additional effects of weather. Model selection using deviance information criterion (DIC) suggested that the basic model was the most parsimonious for Crinia signifera, while models including relative humidity and water temperature were most supported for Limnodynastes dumerilii and L. tasmaniensis respectively. When predictive performance was assessed by cross validation, DIC results were largely matched for C. signifera and L. dumerilii, while models of detection for L. tasmaniensis were indistinguishable, AUC scores suggesting inadequate performance. We show how results such as these can be used to design surveys, developing protocols for individual surveys and estimating the number of surveys required under those protocols to achieve a threshold cumulative probability of detection. Conservation managers can use these models to maximize the efficiency of surveys. This will improve the accuracy of occupancy data, and reduce the risk of misdirected conservation actions resulting from false absences

Connectivity over a disease risk gradient enables recovery of rainforest frogs

Chytridiomycosis has been a key driver of global frog declines and extinctions, particularly for high-altitude populations across Australia and the Americas. While recent evidence shows some species are recovering, the extent of such recoveries and the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly resolved. We surveyed the historical latitudinal and elevational range of four Australian rainforest frogs that disappeared from upland sites between 1989 and 1994 to establish their contemporary distribution and elevational limits, and investigate factors affecting population recovery. Five rainforest streams were surveyed from mountain-base to summit (30 sites in total), with swabs collected from the target species (Litoria dayi, L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and L. serrata) to determine their infection status, and data loggers deployed to measure microclimatic variation across the elevational gradient. Infection probability increased with elevation and canopy cover as it was tightly and inversely correlated with stream-side air temperature. Occupancy patterns suggest varying responses to this disease threat gradient. Two species, L. rheocola and L. serrata, were found over their full historical elevational range (>= 1,000 m above sea level [asl]), while L. dayi was not detected above 400 m (formerly known up to 900 m asl) and L. nannotis was not detected above 800 m (formerly known up to 1,200 m asl). Site occupancy probability was negatively related to predicted infection prevalence for L. dayi, L. nannotis, and L. rheocola, but not L. serrata, which appears to now tolerate high fungal burdens. This study highlights the importance of environmental refuges and connectivity across disease risk gradients for the persistence and natural recovery of frogs susceptible to chytridiomycosis. Likewise, in documenting both interspecific variation in recovery rates and intraspecific differences between sites, this study suggests interactions between disease threats and host selection exist that could be manipulated. For example, translocations may be warranted where connectivity is poor or the increase in disease risk is too steep to allow recolonization, combined with assisted selection or use of founders from populations that have already undergone natural selection

A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Aim: Population viability analysis (PVA) is used to quantify the risks faced by species under alternative management regimes. Bayesian PVAs allow uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying population model to be easily propagated through to the predictions. We developed a Bayesian stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) and used this model to assess the viability of a metapopulation of the growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) under different urbanization scenarios. Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Methods: We fitted a Bayesian model that accounted for imperfect detection to a multiseason occupancy dataset for L. raniformis collected across northern Melbourne. The probability of extinction was modelled as a function of effective wetland area, aquatic vegetation cover and connectivity, using logistic regression. The probability of colonization was modelled as a function of connectivity alone. We then simulated the dynamics of a metapopulation of L. raniformis subject to differing levels of urbanization and compensatory wetland creation. Uncertainty was propagated by conducting simulations for 5000 estimates of the parameters of the models for extinction and colonization. Results: There was considerable uncertainty in both the probability of quasi-extinction and the minimum number of occupied wetlands under most urbanization scenarios. Uncertainty around the change in quasi-extinction risk and minimum metapopulation size increased with increasing habitat loss. For our focal metapopulation, the analysis revealed that significant investment in new wetlands may be required to offset the impacts of urbanization. Main conclusions: Bayesian approaches to PVA allow parametric uncertainty to be propagated and considered in management decisions. They also provide means of identifying parameters that represent critical uncertainties, and, through the use of informative priors, can easily assimilate new data to reduce parametric uncertainty. These advantages, and the ready availability of software to run Bayesian analyses, will ensure that Bayesian approaches are used increasingly for PVAs.12 page(s