Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event: Marine Isotope Stage M2

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature ofwarmclimates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausibleM2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude thepossibilityof the existenceof larger icemasses duringM2 in the Northern or SouthernHemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant icemasses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further

The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes

Reconciling palaeodata with model simulations of the Pliocene climate is essential for understanding a world with atmospheric CO2 concentration near 400 ppmv (parts per million by volume). Both models and data indicate an amplified warming of the high latitudes during the Pliocene; however, terrestrial data suggest that Pliocene northern high-latitude temperatures were much higher than can be simulated by models. We focus on the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and show that understanding the northern high-latitude terrestrial temperatures is particularly difficult for the coldest months. Here the temperatures obtained from models and different proxies can vary by more than 20 ∘C. We refer to this mismatch as the “warm winter paradox”. Analysis suggests the warm winter paradox could be due to a number of factors including model structural uncertainty, proxy data not being strongly constrained by winter temperatures, uncertainties in data reconstruction methods, and the fact that the Pliocene northern high-latitude climate does not have a modern analogue. Refinements to model boundary conditions or proxy dating are unlikely to contribute significantly to the resolution of the warm winter paradox. For the Pliocene high-latitude terrestrial summer temperatures, models and different proxies are in good agreement. Those factors which cause uncertainty in winter temperatures are shown to be much less important for the summer. Until some of the uncertainties in winter high-latitude Pliocene temperatures can be reduced, we suggest a data–model comparison should focus on the summer. This is expected to give more meaningful and accurate results than a data–model comparison which focuses on the annual mean

The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene,

We present the role of CO2 forcing in controlling Late Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) change using six models from Phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) and palaeoclimate proxy data from the PlioVAR working group. At a global scale, SST change in the Late Pliocene relative to the pre-industrial is predominantly driven by CO2 forcing in the low and mid-latitudes and non-CO2 forcing in the high latitudes. We find that CO2 is the dominant driver of SST change at the vast majority of proxy data sites assessed (17 out of 19), but the relative dominance of this forcing varies between all proxy sites, with CO2 forcing accounting for between 27 % and 82 % of the total change seen. The dearth of proxy data sites in the high latitudes means that only two sites assessed here are predominantly forced by non-CO2 forcing (such as changes to ice sheets and orography), both of which are in the North Atlantic Ocean.We extend the analysis to show the seasonal patterns of SST change and its drivers at a global scale and at a site-specific level for three chosen proxy data sites. We also present a new estimate of Late Pliocene climate sensitivity using site-specific proxy data values. This is the first assessment of site-specific drivers of SST change in the Late Pliocene and highlights the strengths of using palaeoclimate proxy data alongside model outputs to further develop our understanding of the Late Pliocene. We use the best available proxy and model data, but the sample sizes remain limited, and the confidence in our results would be improved with greater data availability

Accounting for Centennial Scale Variability when Detecting Changes in ENSO: a study of the Pliocene

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability. However, climate models are inconsistent in future predictions of ENSO, and long term variations in ENSO cannot be quantified from the short instrumental records available. Here we analyse ENSO behaviour in millennial-scale climate simulations of a warm climate of the past, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼3.3 − 3.0Ma). We consider centennial-scale variability in ENSO for both the mPWP and the preindustrial, and consider which changes between the two climates are detectable above this variability. We find that El Niño typically occurred 12% less frequently in the mPWP but with a 20% longer duration, and with stronger amplitude in precipitation and temperature. However low frequency variability in ENSO meant that Pliocene-preindustrial changes in El Niño temperature amplitude in the NINO3.4 region (5° N-5° S, 170° W-120° W) were not always detectable. The Pliocene-preindustrial El Niño temperature signal in the NINO4 region (5° N-5° S, 160° E-150° W) and the El Niño precipitation signal are usually larger than centennial scale variations of El Niño amplitude, and provide consistent indications of ENSO amplitude change. The enhanced mPWP temperature signal in the NINO4 region is associated with an increase in Central Pacific El Niño events similar to those observed in recent decades and predicted for the future. This study highlights the importance of considering centennial scale variability when comparing ENSO changes between two climate states. If centennial scale variability in ENSO has not first been established, results suggesting changes in ENSO behaviour may not be robust

Foraging ecology of Mediterranean juvenile loggerhead turtles: insights from C and N stable isotope ratios

Bycatch is one of the key threats to juvenile marine turtles in the Mediterranean Sea. As fishing methods are regional or habitat specific, the susceptibility of marine turtles may differ according to inter- and intra-population variations in foraging ecology. An understanding of these variations is necessary to assess bycatch susceptibility and to implement region-specific management. To determine if foraging ecology differs with region, sex, and size of juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen was performed on 171 juveniles from a range of foraging regions across the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. Isotope ratios differed with geographical region, likely due to baseline variations in δ13C and δ15N values. The absence of sex-specific differences suggests that within an area, all comparably sized animals likely exploit similar foraging strategies, and therefore, their susceptibility to fisheries threats will likely be similar. The isotope ratios of juveniles occupying the North East Adriatic and North Levantine basin increased with size, potentially due to increased consumption of more prey items at higher trophic levels from a more neritic source. Isotope ratios of juveniles with access to both neritic and oceanic habitats did not differ with size which is consistent with them consuming prey items from both habitats interchangeably. With foraging habitats exploited differently among size classes in a population, the susceptibility to fisheries interactions will likely differ with size; therefore, region-specific management approaches will be needed

20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia.

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems

The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models

Threatened North African seagrass meadows have supported green turtle populations for millennia

"Protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity" is the second official aim of the current UN Ocean Decade (2021 to 2030) calling for the identification and protection of critical marine habitats. However, data to inform policy are often lacking altogether or confined to recent times, preventing the establishment of long-term baselines. The unique insights gained from combining bioarchaeology (palaeoproteomics, stable isotope analysis) with contemporary data (from satellite tracking) identified habitats which sea turtles have been using in the Eastern Mediterranean over five millennia. Specifically, our analysis of archaeological green turtle (Chelonia mydas) bones revealed that they likely foraged on the same North African seagrass meadows as their modern-day counterparts. Here, millennia-long foraging habitat fidelity has been directly demonstrated, highlighting the significance (and long-term dividends) of protecting these critical coastal habitats that are especially vulnerable to global warming. We highlight the potential for historical ecology to inform policy in safeguarding critical marine habitats

Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensemble's variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic