Statistical Analysis of Rabies Submissions in Kentucky and Weather as a Potential Predictor of Positive Cases

Background The rabies virus is a zoonotic pathogen that is nearly 100 percent fatal once symptoms occur. Because it is still active in wildlife populations in Kentucky, the need for preventive measures and surveillance is critical. Temperature and precipitation have been shown to affect rabies. This study examined rabies submissions in Kentucky, weather and geographical distribution to both describe and predict cases. Methods Data from the University of Kentucky Veterinary Diagnostics laboratory were used to assess rabies submissions from 2005 through 2015. These submissions were anonymously submitted by the public and the Florescent Antibody Test was used to determine infection status. Submissions were totaled across years to interpret distribution over time. The rate of positive submissions over total submissions by county was used to evaluate where rabies occurred in Kentucky. Next, maps were made to assess distribution geographically. Fisher’s exact test was used to determine differences between climate regions. Linear regression was used to examine the association between climate region data and positive rates of submissions. Results Yearly distribution of submissions was fairly stable with a spike of both submissions and positive results for the years 2008-2009. Fisher’s Exact test revealed significant differences between climate region. Post-hoc analysis showed a non-significant difference between the northern region of Kentucky compared to other regions. Maps of distribution of positive rates showed a belt of activity in southern Kentucky. A warmer observed regional temperature was a statistically significant predictor of positive rates of rabies submissions in linear regression models for all species as well as bats when considered separately. However, this increase was exceptionally small and provided little clinical significance. Conclusion Rabies in Kentucky is still active. While the majority of submissions come from the northern parts of the state, the southern portion of Kentucky has a higher proportion of positive submissions. Based on the results of this study, temperature should be considered when trying to predict future cases of rabies in Kentucky. More research using additional predictors could help establish a stronger relationship

Supporting blood pressure measurement prior to online prescription of the combined oral contraceptive.

Editorial - No Abstract available

Contraception in Person-Contraception Online (CiP-CO) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Online contraception services increasingly provide information, clinical assessment and home-delivered oral contraceptives (OCs). Evidence is lacking on the effects of online contraceptive service use on short-term contraceptive continuation. METHODS: Cohort study comparing contraceptive continuation between new users of a free-to-access online OC service in South East London with those from other, face-to-face services in the same area. Online questionnaires collected data on participants' sociodemographic characteristics, motivations for OC access, service ratings, OC knowledge and contraceptive use. Contraceptive use in the 4-month study period was measured using health service records. Unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression models compared outcomes between the online service group and those using other services. RESULTS: Online service-users (n=138) were more likely to experience short-term continuation of OCs compared with participants using other services (n=98) after adjusting for sociodemographic and other characteristics (adjusted OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.52 to 5.70). Online service-users rated their service more highly (mean 25.22, SD 3.77) than the other services group (mean 22.70, SD 4.35; p<0.001), valuing convenience and speed of access. Among progestogen-only pill users, knowledge scores were higher for the online group (mean 4.83, SD 1.90) than the other services group (mean 3.87, SD 1.73; p=0.007). Among combined oral contraceptive users, knowledge scores were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Free-to-access, online contraception has the potential to improve short-term continuation of OCs. Further research using a larger study population and analysis of longer-term outcomes are required to understand the impact of online services on unintended pregnancy

Successful recruitment to trials : findings from the SCIMITAR+ Trial

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCT) can struggle to recruit to target on time. This is especially the case with hard to reach populations such as those with severe mental ill health. The SCIMITAR+ trial, a trial of a bespoke smoking cessation intervention for people with severe mental ill health achieved their recruitment ahead of time and target. This article reports strategies that helped us to achieve this with the aim of aiding others recruiting from similar populations. METHODS: SCIMITAR+ is a multi-centre pragmatic two-arm parallel-group RCT, which aimed to recruit 400 participants with severe mental ill health who smoke and would like to cut down or quit. The study recruited primarily in secondary care through community mental health teams and psychiatrists with a smaller number of participants recruited through primary care. Recruitment opened in October 2015 and closed in December 2016, by which point 526 participants had been recruited. We gathered information from recruiting sites on strategies which led to the successful recruitment in SCIMITAR+ and in this article present our approach to trial management along with the strategies employed by the recruiting sites. RESULTS: Alongside having a dedicated trial manager and trial management team, we identified three main themes that led to successful recruitment. These were: clinicians with a positive attitude to research; researchers and clinicians working together; and the use of NHS targets. The overriding theme was the importance of relationships between both the researchers and the recruiting clinicians and the recruiting clinicians and the participants. CONCLUSIONS: This study makes a significant contribution to the limited evidence base of real-world cases of successful recruitment to RCTs and offers practical guidance to those planning and conducting trials. Building positive relationships between clinicians, researchers and participants is crucial to successful recruitment

Patterns of eye-movements when Male and Female observers judge female attractiveness, body fat and waist-to-hip ratio

Behavioural studies of the perceptual cues for female physical attractiveness have suggested two potentially important features; body fat distribution (the waist-to-hip ratio or WHR) and overall body fat (often estimated by the body mass index or BMI). However none of these studies tell us directly which regions of the stimulus images inform observers’ judgments. Therefore, we recorded the eye-movements of 3 groups of 10 male observers and 3 groups of 10 female observers, when they rated a set of 46 photographs of female bodies. The first sets of observers rated the images for attractiveness, the second sets rated for body fat and the third sets for WHR. If either WHR and/or body fat are used to judge attractiveness, then observers rating attractiveness should look at those areas of the body which allow assessment of these features, and they should look in the same areas when they are directly asked to estimate WHR and body fat. So we are able to compare the fixation patterns for the explicit judgments with those for attractiveness judgments, and infer which features were used for attractiveness. Prior to group analysis of the eye-movement data, the locations of individual eye fixations were transformed into a common reference space to permit comparisons of fixation density at high resolution across all stimuli. This manipulation allowed us to use spatial statistical analysis techniques to show: 1) Observers’ fixations for attractiveness and body fat clustered in the central and upper abdomen and chest, but not the pelvic or hip areas, consistent with the finding that WHR had little influence over attractiveness judgments. 2) The pattern of fixations for attractiveness ratings was very similar to the fixation patterns for body fat judgments. 3) The fixations for WHR ratings were significantly different from those for attractiveness and body fat

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Capacity shortfalls hinder the performance of marine protected areas globally

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being used globally to conserve marine resources. However, whether many MPAs are being effectively and equitably managed, and how MPA management influences substantive outcomes remain unknown. We developed a global database of management and fish population data (433 and 218 MPAs, respectively) to assess: MPA management processes; the effects of MPAs on fish populations; and relationships between management processes and ecological effects. Here we report that many MPAs failed to meet thresholds for effective and equitable management processes, with widespread shortfalls in staff and financial resources. Although 71% of MPAs positively influenced fish populations, these conservation impacts were highly variable. Staff and budget capacity were the strongest predictors of conservation impact: MPAs with adequate staff capacity had ecological effects 2.9 times greater than MPAs with inadequate capacity. Thus, continued global expansion of MPAs without adequate investment in human and financial capacity is likely to lead to sub-optimal conservation outcomes

“Older-wiser-lesbians” and “baby-dykes”: mediating age and generation in New Queer Cinema

Representations of intersections of gender, age, and sexuality can reveal deep-rooted cultural anxieties about older women and sexuality. Images of lesbian ageing are of particular interest in terms of alterity, as the old/er queer woman can combine layers of otherness—not only is she the cultural “other” within heteronormativity, but she can also appear as the opposite of popular culture’s lesbian chic. In this article, a cultural analysis of a range of films—If These Walls Could Talk 2 (dir. Anderson, Coolidge, and Heche 2000), Itty Bitty Titty Committee (dir. Babbit 2007), The Owls (dir. Dunye 2010), Hannah Free (dir. Carlton 2009), and Cloudburst (dir. Fitzgerald 2011)—considers diverse dramatisations of lesbian generations. This article interrogates to what extent alternative cinemas deconstruct normative conceptualisations of ageing. Drawing on recent critiques of post-feminist culture, and a range of feminist and age/ing studies scholarship, it suggests that a linear understanding of ageing and the generational underlies dominant depictions of oppositional binaries of young versus old, of generational segregation or rivalry, and the othering of age. It concludes that non-linear understandings of temporality and ageing contain the potential for New Queer Cinema to counteract such idealisations of youthfulness, which, it argues, is one of the most deep-rooted manifestations of (hetero)normativity

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p&lt;0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p&lt;0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p&lt;0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP &gt;5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification