The inverse care law in critical care during the COVID-19 pandemic

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Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of existing needle and syringe programmes in preventing hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugs

AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) compared with no NSPs on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis from a National Health Service (NHS)/health-provider perspective, utilizing a dynamic transmission model of HCV infection and disease progression, calibrated using city-specific surveillance and survey data, and primary data collection on NSP costs. The effectiveness of NSPs preventing HCV acquisition was based on empirical evidence. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: UK settings with different chronic HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID): Dundee (26%), Walsall (18%) and Bristol (45%) INTERVENTIONS: Current NSP provision is compared with a counterfactual scenario where NSPs are removed for 10 years and then returned to existing levels with effects collected for 40 years. MEASUREMENTS: HCV infections and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained through NSPs over 50 years. FINDINGS: Compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, NSPs were highly cost-effective over a time-horizon of 50 years and decreased the number of HCV incident infections. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was cost-saving in Dundee and Bristol, and £596 per QALY gained in Walsall, with 78, 46 and 40% of simulations being cost-saving in each city, respectively, with differences driven by coverage of NSP and HCV prevalence (lowest in Walsall). More than 90% of simulations were cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including varying the time-horizon, HCV treatment cost and numbers of HCV treatments per year. CONCLUSIONS: Needle and syringe programmes are a highly effective low-cost intervention to reduce hepatitis C virus transmission, and in some settings they are cost-saving. Needle and syringe programmes are likely to remain cost-effective irrespective of changes in hepatitis C virus treatment cost and scale-up

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of existing needle and syringe programmes in preventing Hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugs

Aim To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) compared to no NSPs on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in the United Kingdom.Design Cost-effectiveness analysis from NHS/ health-provider perspective, utilising a dynamic transmission model of HCV infection and disease progression, calibrated using city-specific surveillance and survey data, and primary data collection on NSP costs. The effectiveness of NSPs preventing HCV acquisition was based on empirical evidence.Setting UK settings with different chronic HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID): Dundee (26%), Walsall (18%), and Bristol (45%)Population PWIDInterventions Current NSP provision is compared to a counterfactual scenario where NSPs are removed for 10 years and then returned to existing levels with effects collected for 40 years. Measurements HCV infections, and cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained through NSPs over 50 years Findings Compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained, NSPs were highly cost-effective over a time-horizon of 50 years and decreased the number of HCV incident infections. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was cost-saving in Dundee and Bristol, and £596 per QALY gained in Walsall, with 78%, 46% and 40% of simulations being cost-saving in each city, respectively, with differences driven by coverage of NSP and HCV prevalence (lowest in Walsall). Over 90% of simulations were cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses including varying the time-horizon, HCV treatment cost and numbers of HCV treatments per year. Conclusions We projected NSPs avert HCV infections and are highly cost-effective in the UK and could be cost-saving to the NHS and other health care providers. NSPs will remain cost-effective in the UK irrespective of changes in HCV treatment cost and scale-up, meaning that NSPs will continue to be an efficient strategy for preventing HCV transmission in the future

Reconciling diverse mammalian pigmentation patterns with a fundamental mathematical model

Bands of colour extending laterally from the dorsal to ventral trunk are a common feature of mouse chimeras. These stripes were originally taken as evidence of the directed dorsoventral migration of melanoblasts (the embryonic precursors of melanocytes) as they colonize the developing skin. Depigmented 'belly spots' in mice with mutations in the receptor tyrosine kinase Kit are thought to represent a failure of this colonization, either due to impaired migration or proliferation. Tracing of single melanoblast clones, however, has revealed a diffuse distribution with high levels of axial mixing--hard to reconcile with directed migration. Here we construct an agent-based stochastic model calibrated by experimental measurements to investigate the formation of diffuse clones, chimeric stripes and belly spots. Our observations indicate that melanoblast colonization likely proceeds through a process of undirected migration, proliferation and tissue expansion, and that reduced proliferation is the cause of the belly spots in Kit mutants

Ethnic and social inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland:protocol for early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II)

Introduction: Evidence from previous pandemics, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, has found that risk of infection/severity of disease is disproportionately higher for ethnic minority groups, and those in lower socioeconomic positions. It is imperative that interventions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are targeted towards high-risk populations. We will investigate the associations between social characteristics (such as ethnicity, occupation and socioeconomic position) and COVID-19 outcomes and the extent to which characteristics/risk factors might explain observed relationships in Scotland. The primary objective of this study is to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 by social factors. Secondary objectives are to (1) examine receipt of treatment and prevention of COVID-19 by social factors; (2) quantify ethnic/social differences in adverse COVID-19 outcomes; (3) explore potential mediators of relationships between social factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection/COVID-19 prognosis; (4) examine whether occupational COVID-19 differences differ by other social factors and (5) assess quality of ethnicity coding within National Health Service datasets. Methods and analysis: We will use a national cohort comprising the adult population of Scotland who completed the 2011 Census and were living in Scotland on 31 March 2020 (~4.3 million people). Census data will be linked to the Early Assessment of Vaccine and Anti-Viral Effectiveness II cohort consisting of primary/secondary care, laboratory data and death records. Sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive values will be used to assess coding quality of ethnicity. Descriptive statistics will be used to examine differences in treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Poisson/Cox regression analyses and mediation techniques will examine ethnic and social differences, and drivers of inequalities in COVID-19. Effect modification (on additive and multiplicative scales) between key variables (such as ethnicity and occupation) will be assessed. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from the National Research Ethics Committee, South East Scotland 02. We will present findings of this study at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and to policy-makers

Variation in population levels of sedentary time in European adults according to cross European studies: a systematic literature review within DEDIPAC

peer-reviewedBackground: Sedentary behaviour is increasingly recognized as a public health risk that needs to be monitored at the population level. Across Europe, there is increasing interest in assessing population levels of sedentary time. This systematic literature review aims to provide an overview of all existing cross-European studies that measure sedentary time in adults, to describe the variation in population levels across these studies and to discuss the impact of assessment methods. Methods: Six literature databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SportDiscus and OpenGrey) were searched, supplemented with backward- and forward tracking and searching authors’ and experts’ literature databases. Articles were included if they reported on observational studies measuring any form of sedentary time in the general population in two or more European countries. Each record was reviewed, extracted and assessed by two independent researchers, and disagreements were resolved by a third researcher. The review protocol of this review is registered in the PROSPERO database under registration number CRD42014010335. Results: Of the 9,756 unique articles that were identified in the search, twelve articles were eligible for inclusion in this review, reporting on six individual studies and three Eurobarometer surveys. These studies represented 2 to 29 countries, and 321 to 65,790 participants. Eleven studies focused on total sedentary time, while one studied screen time. The majority of studies used questionnaires to assess sedentary time, while two studies used accelerometers. Total sedentary time was reported most frequently and varied from 150 (median) to 620 (mean) minutes per day aConclusions: One third of European countries were not included in any of the studies. Objective measures of European adults are currently limited, and most studies used single-item self-reported questions without assessing sedentary behaviour types or domains. Findings varied substantially between studies, meaning that population levels of sedentary time in European adults are currently unknown. In general, people living in northern Europe countries appear to report more sedentary time than southern Europeans. The findings of this review highlight the need for standardisation of the measurement methods and the added value of cross-European surveillance of sedentary behaviour.cross studies and countries

Polypeptide-grafted macroporous polyHIPE by surface-initiated N-Carboxyanhydride (NCA) polymerization as a platform for bioconjugation

A new class of functional macroporous monoliths from polymerized high internal phase emulsion (polyHIPE) with tunable surface functional groups was developed by direct polypeptide surface grafting. In the first step, amino-functional polyHIPEs were obtained by the addition of 4-vinylbenzyl or 4-vinylbenzylphthalimide to the styrenic emulsion and thermal radical polymerization. The obtained monoliths present the expected open-cell morphology and a high surface area. The incorporated amino group was successfully utilized to initiate the ring-opening polymer- ization of benzyl-L-glutamate N-carboxyanhydride (BLG NCA) and benzyloxycarbonyl-L-lysine (Lys(Z)) NCA, which resulted in a dense homogeneous coating of polypeptides throughout the internal polyHIPE surfaces as confirmed by SEM and FTIR analysis. The amount of polypeptide grafted to the polyHIPE surfaces could be modulated by varying the initial ratio of amino acid NCA to amino-functional polyHIPE. Subsequent removal of the polypeptide protecting groups yielded highly functional polyHIPE-g-poly(glutamic acid) and polyHIPE-g- poly(lysine). Both types of polypeptide-grafted monoliths responded to pH by changes in their hydrohilicity. The possibility to use the high density of function (−COOH or −NH2) for secondary reaction was demonstrated by the successful bioconjugation of enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP) and fluorescein isocyanate (FITC) on the polymer 3D-scaffold surface. The amount of eGFP and FITC conjugated to the polypeptide-grafted polyHIPE was significantly higher than to the amino- functional polyHIPE, signifying the advantage of polypeptide grafting to achieve highly functional polyHIPEs

Determinants of recovery from post-COVID-19 dyspnoea: analysis of UK prospective cohorts of hospitalised COVID-19 patients and community-based controls

Background The risk factors for recovery from COVID-19 dyspnoea are poorly understood. We investigated determinants of recovery from dyspnoea in adults with COVID-19 and compared these to determinants of recovery from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea. Methods We used data from two prospective cohort studies: PHOSP-COVID (patients hospitalised between March 2020 and April 2021 with COVID-19) and COVIDENCE UK (community cohort studied over the same time period). PHOSP-COVID data were collected during hospitalisation and at 5-month and 1-year follow-up visits. COVIDENCE UK data were obtained through baseline and monthly online questionnaires. Dyspnoea was measured in both cohorts with the Medical Research Council Dyspnoea Scale. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify determinants associated with a reduction in dyspnoea between 5-month and 1-year follow-up. Findings We included 990 PHOSP-COVID and 3309 COVIDENCE UK participants. We observed higher odds of improvement between 5-month and 1-year follow-up among PHOSP-COVID participants who were younger (odds ratio 1.02 per year, 95% CI 1.01–1.03), male (1.54, 1.16–2.04), neither obese nor severely obese (1.82, 1.06–3.13 and 4.19, 2.14–8.19, respectively), had no pre-existing anxiety or depression (1.56, 1.09–2.22) or cardiovascular disease (1.33, 1.00–1.79), and shorter hospital admission (1.01 per day, 1.00–1.02). Similar associations were found in those recovering from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea, excluding age (and length of hospital admission). Interpretation Factors associated with dyspnoea recovery at 1-year post-discharge among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were similar to those among community controls without COVID-19. Funding PHOSP-COVID is supported by a grant from the MRC-UK Research and Innovation and the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) rapid response panel to tackle COVID-19. The views expressed in the publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Health Service (NHS), the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. COVIDENCE UK is supported by the UK Research and Innovation, the National Institute for Health Research, and Barts Charity. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation