The effects of CO2, climate and land-use on terrestrial carbon balance, 1920-1992: An analysis with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system

Storm-induced upwelling of high pCO2 waters onto the continental shelf of the western Arctic Ocean and implications for carbonate mineral saturation states

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L07606, doi:10.1029/2012GL051574.The carbon system of the western Arctic Ocean is undergoing a rapid transition as sea ice extent and thickness decline. These processes are dynamically forcing the region, with unknown consequences for CO2 fluxes and carbonate mineral saturation states, particularly in the coastal regions where sensitive ecosystems are already under threat from multiple stressors. In October 2011, persistent wind-driven upwelling occurred in open water along the continental shelf of the Beaufort Sea in the western Arctic Ocean. During this time, cold (32.4) halocline water—supersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO2 (pCO2 > 550 μatm) and undersaturated in aragonite (Ωaragonite < 1.0) was transported onto the Beaufort shelf. A single 10-day event led to the outgassing of 0.18–0.54 Tg-C and caused aragonite undersaturations throughout the water column over the shelf. If we assume a conservative estimate of four such upwelling events each year, then the annual flux to the atmosphere would be 0.72–2.16 Tg-C, which is approximately the total annual sink of CO2 in the Beaufort Sea from primary production. Although a natural process, these upwelling events have likely been exacerbated in recent years by declining sea ice cover and changing atmospheric conditions in the region, and could have significant impacts on regional carbon budgets. As sea ice retreat continues and storms increase in frequency and intensity, further outgassing events and the expansion of waters that are undersaturated in carbonate minerals over the shelf are probable.Funding for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation (ARC1041102 – JTM, OPP0856244-RSP, and ARC1040694- LWJ), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CIFAR11021- RHB) and the West Coast & Polar Regions Undersea Research Center (POFP00983 – CLM and JM).2012-10-1

Shellfish Face Uncertain Future in High CO2 World: Influence of Acidification on Oyster Larvae Calcification and Growth in Estuaries

BACKGROUND: Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO(2) has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address CO(2)-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis) were grown in estuarine water under four pCO(2) regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 microatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO(2) manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO(2) in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21(st) century pCO(2) treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO(2) and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying biota, will be species-specific and therefore much more variable and complex than reported previously

Comment on Qian et al. 2008: La Niña and El Niño composites of atmospheric CO2 change

It is well known that interannual extremes in the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 are strongly influenced by the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Qian et al. presented ENSO composites of atmospheric CO2 changes. We show that their composites do not reflect the atmospheric changes that are most relevant to understanding the role of ENSO on atmospheric CO2 variability. We present here composites of atmospheric CO2 change that differ markedly from those of Qian et al., and reveal previously unreported asymmetries between the effects on the global carbon system of El Niño and La Niña events. The calendar-year timing differs; La Niña changes in atmospheric CO2 typically occur primarily over September–May, while El Niño changes occur primarily over December–August. And the net concentration change is quite different; La Niña changes are about half the size of El Niño changes. These results illustrate new aspects of the ENSO/global carbon budget interaction and provide useful global-scale benchmarks for the evaluation of Earth System Model studies of the carbon system

Ocean acidification reduces demersal zooplankton that reside in tropical coral reefs

The in situ effects of ocean acidification on zooplankton communities remain largely unexplored. Using natural volcanic CO2 seep sites around tropical coral communities, we show a threefold reduction in the biomass of demersal zooplankton in high-CO2 sites compared with sites with ambient CO2. Differences were consistent across two reefs and three expeditions. Abundances were reduced in most taxonomic groups. There were no regime shifts in zooplankton community composition and no differences in fatty acid composition between CO2 levels, suggesting that ocean acidification affects the food quantity but not the quality for nocturnal plankton feeders. Emergence trap data show that the observed reduction in demersal plankton may be partly attributable to altered habitat. Ocean acidification changes coral community composition from branching to massive bouldering coral species, and our data suggest that bouldering corals represent inferior daytime shelter for demersal zooplankton. Since zooplankton represent a major source of nutrients for corals, fish and other planktivores, this ecological feedback may represent an additional mechanism of how coral reefs will be affected by ocean acidification

Preservation of iron(II) by carbon-rich matrices in a hydrothermal plume

Hydrothermal venting associated with mid-ocean ridge volcanism is globally widespread. This venting is responsible for a dissolved iron flux to the ocean that is approximately equal to that associated with continental riverine runoff. For hydrothermal fluxes, it has long been assumed that most of the iron entering the oceans is precipitated in inorganic forms. However, the possibility of globally significant fluxes of iron escaping these mass precipitation events and entering open-ocean cycles is now being debated, and two recent studies suggest that dissolved organic ligands might influence the fate of hydrothermally vented metals. Here we present spectromicroscopic measurements of iron and carbon in hydrothermal plume particles at the East Pacific Rise mid-ocean ridge. We show that organic carbon-rich matrices, containing evenly dispersed iron(II)-rich materials, are pervasive in hydrothermal plume particles. The absence of discrete iron(II) particles suggests that the carbon and iron associate through sorption or complexation. We suggest that these carbon matrices stabilize iron(II) released from hydrothermal vents in the region, preventing its oxidation and/or precipitation as insoluble minerals. Our findings have implications for deep-sea biogeochemical cycling of iron, a widely recognized limiting nutrient in the oceans

Global Peak in Atmospheric Radiocarbon Provides a Potential Definition for the Onset of the Anthropocene Epoch in 1965

Anthropogenic activity is now recognised as having profoundly and permanently altered the Earth system, suggesting we have entered a human-dominated geological epoch, the ‘Anthropocene’. To formally define the onset of the Anthropocene, a synchronous global signature within geological-forming materials is required. Here we report a series of precisely-dated tree-ring records from Campbell Island (Southern Ocean) that capture peak atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) resulting from Northern Hemisphere-dominated thermonuclear bomb tests during the 1950s and 1960s. The only alien tree on the island, a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), allows us to seasonally-resolve Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C, demonstrating the ‘bomb peak’ in this remote and pristine location occurred in the last-quarter of 1965 (October-December), coincident with the broader changes associated with the post-World War II ‘Great Acceleration’ in industrial capacity and consumption. Our findings provide a precisely-resolved potential Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) or ‘golden spike’, marking the onset of the Anthropocene Epoch

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

An update to the Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT version 2)

The Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT), an activity of the international marine carbon research community, provides access to synthesis and gridded fCO₂ (fugacity of carbon dioxide) products for the surface oceans. Version 2 of SOCAT is an update of the previous release (version 1) with more data (increased from 6.3 million to 10.1 million surface water fCO₂ values) and extended data coverage (from 1968–2007 to 1968–2011). The quality control criteria, while identical in both versions, have been applied more strictly in version 2 than in version 1. The SOCAT website (http://www.socat.info/) has links to quality control comments, metadata, individual data set files, and synthesis and gridded data products. Interactive online tools allow visitors to explore the richness of the data. Applications of SOCAT include process studies, quantification of the ocean carbon sink and its spatial, seasonal, year-to-year and longerterm variation, as well as initialisation or validation of ocean carbon models and coupled climate-carbon models

Autonomous Seawater \u3ci\u3ep\u3c/i\u3eCO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e and pH Time Series From 40 Surface Buoys and the Emergence of Anthropogenic Trends

Ship-based time series, some now approaching over 3 decades long, are critical climate records that have dramatically improved our ability to characterize natural and anthropogenic drivers of ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and biogeochemical processes. Advancements in autonomous marine carbon sensors and technologies over the last 2 decades have led to the expansion of observations at fixed time series sites, thereby improving the capability of characterizing sub-seasonal variability in the ocean. Here , we present a data product of 40 individual autonomous moored surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) time series established between 2004 and 2013, 17 also include autonomous pH measurements. These time series characterie a wide range of surface ocean carbonate conditions in diffferent oceanic (17 sites), coastal (13 sites), and coral reef (10 sites) regimes. A time of trend emergence (ToE) methodology applied ot the time series that exhibit well-constrained daily to interannual variability and an estimate of decadal variability indicates that the length of sustained observations necessary to detect statistically significant anthropogenic trends varies by marine environment. The ToE estisites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 and pH range from 8 to 15 years at the open ocean sites, 16 to 41 years at the coastal sites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station (WHOTS) in the subtropical North Pacific and Stratus n the South Pacific gyre, have been deployed longer than the estimated trend detection time and, for these, deseasoned monthly means show estimated anthropogenic trends of 1.9 ± 0.3 and 1.6 ± 0.3 μatm yr-1, respectively. In the future, it is possible that updates to this product will allow for the estimation of anthropogenic trends at more sites; however, the product currently provides a valuable tool in an accessible format for evaluating climatology and natural variability of surface ocean carbonate chemistry in a variety of regions. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V5DB8043 and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/Moorings/ndp097.html (Sutton et al., 2018)