Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

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Not AvailableSoybean is a leading oilseed crop in India, which contains about 40% of protein and 20% of oil. Core collection will accelerate the management and utilization of soybean genetic resources in breeding programmes. In the present study, eight agromorphological traits of 3443 soybean germplasm were analysed for the development of core collection using the principal component score (PCS) strategy and the power core method. The PCS strategy yielded core collection (CC1) of 576 accessions, which accounted for 16.72% of the entire collection (EC). The analysis based on the power core programme resulted in CC2 of 402 accessions, which accounted for 11.67% of the EC. Statistical analysis showed similar trends for the mean and range estimated in both core collections and EC. In addition, the variance, standard deviation and coefficient of variance were in general higher in core collections than in the EC. The correlations observed in the EC in general were preserved in core collections. A total of 311 and 137 unique accessions were found in CC1 and CC2 in addition to 265 accessions that were found to be common in both core collections. These 265 common accessions were the most diverse core sets, which accounted for 7.64% of the EC. We proposed to constitute an integrated core collection (ICC) by integrating both common and unique accessions. The ICC comprised 713 accessions, which accounted for about 20.62% of the EC. Statistical analysis indicated that the ICC captured maximum variation than CC1 and CC2. Therefore, the ICC can be extensively evaluated for a large number of economically important traits for the identification of desirable genotypes and for the development of mini core collection in soybean.Not Availabl

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Not AvailableAllelic combinations of major photoperiodic (E1, E3, E4) and maturity (E2) genes have extended the adaptation of quantitative photoperiod sensitive soybean crop from its origin (China ∼35◦N latitude) to both north (up to ∼50◦N) and south (up to 40◦S) latitudes, but their allelic status and role in India (6–35◦N) are unknown. Loss of function and hypoactive alleles of these genes are known to confer photoinsensitivity to long days and early maturity. Early maturity has helped to adapt soybean to short growing season of India. We had earlier found that all the Indian cultivars are sensitive to incandescent long day (ILD) and could identify six insensitive accessions through screening 2071 accessions under ILD. Available models for ILD insensitivity suggested that identified insensitive genotypes should be either e3/e4 or e1 (e1-nl or e1-fs) with either e3 or e4. We found that one of the insensitive accessions (EC 390977) was of e3/e4 genotype and hybridized it with four ILD sensitive cultivars JS 335, JS 95-60, JS 93-05, NRC 37 and an accession EC 538828. Inheritance studies and marker-based cosegregation analyses confirmed the segregation of E3 and E4 genes and identified JS 93-05 and NRC 37 as E3E3E4E4 and EC 538828 as e3e3E4E4. Further, genotyping through sequencing, derived cleaved amplified polymorphic sequences (dCAPS) and cleaved amplified polymorphic sequences (CAPS) markers identified JS 95-60 with hypoactive e1-as and JS 335 with loss of function e3-fs alleles. Presence of photoperiodic recessive alleles in these two most popular Indian cultivars suggested for their role in conferring early flowering and maturity. This observation could be confirmed in F2 population derived from the cross JS 95-60 × EC 390977, where individuals with e1-as e1-as and e4e4 genotypes could flower 7 and 2.4 days earlier, respectively. Possibility of identification of new alleles or mechanism for ILD insensitivity and use of photoinsensitivity in Indian conditions have been discussed.Not Availabl