The sustainability of China's exchange rate policy and capital account liberalisation.

This paper deals with two related issues: the sustainability of China’s exchange rate regime and the opening up of its capital account. The exchange rate discussion deliberately passes over the issue of the “equilibrium” value of the renminbi and its alleged undervaluation – typically at the heart of the current policy debate – and focuses instead on the domestic costs of the current regime and the potential risks to domestic financial stability in the long run. The paper argues that the renminbi exchange rate should be increasingly determined by market forces and that administrative controls should be progressively relinquished. The exchange rate is obviously linked to well-functioning and efficient capital markets, which require no barriers to capital flows. Thus, exchange rate reform has to be correctly sequenced with reform of the capital account to avoid disruptive capital flows. The paper discusses China’s twin surpluses of the current and capital accounts and attempts to identify the drivers of this “anomalous” external position. The pragmatic strategy pursued by the Chinese authorities in the aftermath of the Asian crisis encouraged FDI inflows and favoured the accumulation of a large stock of foreign exchange reserves. Combined with a relatively weak institutional setting, these factors have been important determinants of the pattern and composition of the country’s capital flows and international investment position. Finally, the paper speculates on the outlook for Chinese capital flows should barriers to capital movements be lifted. It argues that whether China continues to supply capital to the rest of the world or eventually becomes a net borrower in international capital markets – as was the case for most of its recent history – will depend on the evolution of its institutions. JEL Classification: F10, F21, F31, F32, P48.China, exchange rate policy, international investment position, capital account liberalisation, institutions.

Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies

In recent years there has been considerable variation in savings patterns across countries and regions, with implications for the configuration of global current account balances, asset valuations and real interest rates. This paper looks at the empirical drivers behind these trends. It uses a reduced-form model that relates private savings to a set of economic fundamentals, while controlling for structural and institutional differences across countries. Addressing a typical shortcoming of the previous literature, estimates are obtained from a dynamic model, which accounts for cross-sectional heterogeneity. The results suggest that saving rates in emerging economies are higher than cross-country estimates based on fundamentals, particularly in Asia. Demographic factors and financial catching-up have been key drivers of the observed changes in savings in these economies. Looking ahead, the prospective population aging is likely to lead to a considerable fall in saving rates in many economies - albeit the process will take decades to unfold. Further progress in financial deepening in developing economies may be conducive to a redistribution of international saving flows and may potentially support a smoother adjustment of global imbalances. JEL Classification: E20, E60emerging economies, global imbalances, panel error correction model, pooled mean group estimation, Private savings

Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities

In this paper we analyse the pass-through of a commodity price shock along the food price chain in the euro area. Unlike the existing literature, which mainly focuses on food commodity prices quoted in international markets, we use a novel database that accounts for the role of the Common Agricultural Policy in the European Union. We model several departures from the linear pass-through benchmark and compare alternative specifications with aggregate and disaggregate food data. Overall, when the appropriate dataset and methodology are used, it is possible to identify a significant and longlasting food price pass-through. The results of our regressions are applied to the strong increase in food prices in the 2007-08 period; a simple decomposition exercise shows that commodity prices are the main determinant of the increase in producer and consumer prices, thus solving the pass-through puzzle highlighted in the existing literature for the euro area. JEL Classification: C32, C53, E3, Q17food commodity prices, inflation, non-linearities, Pass-Through

Frontotemporal dementia and its subtypes: a genome-wide association study

SummaryBackground Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is a complex disorder characterised by a broad range of clinical manifestations, differential pathological signatures, and genetic variability. Mutations in three genes—MAPT, GRN, and C9orf72—have been associated with FTD. We sought to identify novel genetic risk loci associated with the disorder. Methods We did a two-stage genome-wide association study on clinical FTD, analysing samples from 3526 patients with {FTD} and 9402 healthy controls. To reduce genetic heterogeneity, all participants were of European ancestry. In the discovery phase (samples from 2154 patients with {FTD} and 4308 controls), we did separate association analyses for each {FTD} subtype (behavioural variant FTD, semantic dementia, progressive non-fluent aphasia, and {FTD} overlapping with motor neuron disease FTD-MND), followed by a meta-analysis of the entire dataset. We carried forward replication of the novel suggestive loci in an independent sample series (samples from 1372 patients and 5094 controls) and then did joint phase and brain expression and methylation quantitative trait loci analyses for the associated (p<5 × 10−8) single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Findings We identified novel associations exceeding the genome-wide significance threshold (p<5 × 10−8). Combined (joint) analyses of discovery and replication phases showed genome-wide significant association at 6p21.3, \{HLA\} locus (immune system), for rs9268877 (p=1·05 × 10−8; odds ratio=1·204 95% \{CI\} 1·11–1·30), rs9268856 (p=5·51 × 10−9; 0·809 0·76–0·86) and rs1980493 (p value=1·57 × 10−8, 0·775 0·69–0·86) in the entire cohort. We also identified a potential novel locus at 11q14, encompassing RAB38/CTSC (the transcripts of which are related to lysosomal biology), for the behavioural \{FTD\} subtype for which joint analyses showed suggestive association for rs302668 (p=2·44 × 10−7; 0·814 0·71–0·92). Analysis of expression and methylation quantitative trait loci data suggested that these loci might affect expression and methylation in cis. Interpretation Our findings suggest that immune system processes (link to 6p21.3) and possibly lysosomal and autophagy pathways (link to 11q14) are potentially involved in FTD. Our findings need to be replicated to better define the association of the newly identified loci with disease and to shed light on the pathomechanisms contributing to FTD. Funding The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and National Institute on Aging, the Wellcome/MRC Centre on Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's Research UK, and Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center

Формирование эмоциональной культуры как компонента инновационной культуры студентов

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1 and Darwin was one of the first to recognise that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity, ROH), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3,4. Here we use ROH to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity (SROH) and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in 1 second (FEV1), general cognitive ability (g) and educational attainment (nominal p<1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10, 1.8 × 10−10). In each case increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing convincing evidence for the first time that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5,6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been

Genome-wide Analyses Identify KIF5A as a Novel ALS Gene

To identify novel genes associated with ALS, we undertook two lines of investigation. We carried out a genome-wide association study comparing 20,806 ALS cases and 59,804 controls. Independently, we performed a rare variant burden analysis comparing 1,138 index familial ALS cases and 19,494 controls. Through both approaches, we identified kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) as a novel gene associated with ALS. Interestingly, mutations predominantly in the N-terminal motor domain of KIF5A are causative for two neurodegenerative diseases: hereditary spastic paraplegia (SPG10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 2 (CMT2). In contrast, ALS-associated mutations are primarily located at the C-terminal cargo-binding tail domain and patients harboring loss-of-function mutations displayed an extended survival relative to typical ALS cases. Taken together, these results broaden the phenotype spectrum resulting from mutations in KIF5A and strengthen the role of cytoskeletal defects in the pathogenesis of ALS.Peer reviewe

Mendelian randomization implies no direct causal association between leukocyte telomere length and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Funder: QingLan Research Project of Jiangsu for Outstanding Young TeachersFunder: Project funded by Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Xuzhou Medical UniversityFunder: Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) for Xuzhou Medical UniversityAbstract: We employed Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal relationship between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) with summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (n = ~ 38,000 for LTL and ~ 81,000 for ALS in the European population; n = ~ 23,000 for LTL and ~ 4,100 for ALS in the Asian population). We further evaluated mediation roles of lipids in the pathway from LTL to ALS. The odds ratio per standard deviation decrease of LTL on ALS was 1.10 (95% CI 0.93–1.31, p = 0.274) in the European population and 0.75 (95% CI 0.53–1.07, p = 0.116) in the Asian population. This null association was also detected between LTL and frontotemporal dementia in the European population. However, we found that an indirect effect of LTL on ALS might be mediated by low density lipoprotein (LDL) or total cholesterol (TC) in the European population. These results were robust against extensive sensitivity analyses. Overall, our MR study did not support the direct causal association between LTL and the ALS risk in neither population, but provided suggestive evidence for the mediation role of LDL or TC on the influence of LTL and ALS in the European population

Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads

In this paper the empirical determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads are estimated, using a ragged-edge panel of JP Morgan EMBI and EMBI Global secondary market spreads and a set of common macro-prudential indicators. The panel is estimated using the pooled mean group technique of Pesaran, Shin and Smith. This is essentially a dynamic error correction model where cross-sectional coefficients are allowed to vary in the short run but are required to be homogeneous in the long run. It allows a separation of short-run dynamics and adjustment towards the equilibrium. The model is used to benchmark market spreads and assess whether sovereign risk was overpriced or underpriced during different periods over the past decade. The results suggest that a debtor country's fundamentals and external liquidity conditions are important determinants of market spreads. However, the diagnostic statistics also indicate that the market assessment of a country's creditworthiness is more broad based than that provided by the set of fundamentals included in the model. It is found that the generalised fall in sovereign spreads seen between 1995 and 1997 cannot be entirely explained in terms of improved fundamentals.

Inflation and climate change: the role of climate variables in inflation forecasting and macro modelling

Climate change is increasingly affecting the objective, conduct and transmission of monetary policy. Yet, climate-related shocks and trends are still generally absent from the canonical models used by central banks for their policy analysis and forecasting. This briefing paper reviews the potential pitfalls of using a modelling framework that omits climate-related information and provides some reflections on how central banks can integrate climate change considerations into their ‘workhorse’ models. This includes: accounting for an explicit role of the energy sector in the production structure and for specific climate change policies; improving the ability of models to cope with various sources of heterogeneity; and incorporating a more realistic representation of the financial sector, to analyse the possible stranding of assets and impairments in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. It argues that a ‘suite-of-models’ strategy is a promising approach for central banks to cope with the climate challenge when designing a new generation of models. To complement theory with practice, several examples of central banks that have already integrated climate-related information into their analytical frameworks are provided. The paper concludes with some specific recommendations