West African monsoon 2012

Living up to its reputation as a highly variable climate system, the West African Monsoon (WAM) 2012 contrasted strikingly with the previous year. In 2011, the West African rainy season was delayed, patchy, and irregular. In 2012, whilst it was anomalously wet in many area, the Guinea coastal countries and some crucial agricultural regions remained very dry, persisting from the previous year. As a result, 2012 generated the third big food crisis to hit the region in the last seven years. The 2012 WAM forecast, observed climate conditions and the ongoing socio-economic implications for the region are reviewed here

Disaggregated Analysis: The Key to Understanding Wellbeing in Kenya in the Context of Food Price Volatility

This article provides a national?level picture of food security and wellbeing in Kenya, focusing on the situation before the 2008 food price crisis, and the period after 2008. The extent and impact of food price changes differ spatially, and households have different ways of trying to respond. The major food price shocks in 2008 and 2011 impacted negatively on wellbeing, but even after 2011 prices continued to rise in most areas. Seasonal price movements also have adverse effects for resource?poor households. Food price rises have a particularly negative impact on the poorest households. Urban slum dwellers are vulnerable given their dependence on market purchases to meet food needs, but most rural households also have high dependence on market purchases. Current social protection programmes are piecemeal and unreliable. The article concludes with proposals on more effective social protection approaches and agricultural programmes which can address problems linked to food price rises

The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa

Variation in the seasonal cycle of African rainfall is of key importance for agriculture. Here, an objective method of determining the timing of onset and cessation is, for the first time, extended to the whole of Africa. The method is applied to five observational datasets and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall datasets confirm the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. The biannual rainfall regime is correctly identified over the coastal region of Ghana and the Ivory Coast. However, the ERA-Interim reanalysis exhibits timing biases over areas with two rainy seasons, and both ERA-Interim and the ARCv2 observational dataset exhibit some inconsistent deviations over West Africa. The method can be used to analyze both seasonal - interannual variability and long-term change. Over East Africa, we find that failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons, e.g. on average the long rains were 11 days shorter in 2011. Cessation of the short rains over this region is 7 days later in El Niño and 5 days earlier in La Niña years with only a small change in onset date. The methodology described in this paper is applicable to multiple datasets and to large regions, including those that experience multiple rainy seasons. As such, it provides a means for investigating variability and change in the seasonal cycle over the whole of Africa

A systematic approach to assess climate information products applied to agriculture and food security in Guatemala and Colombia

[EN] Increased interannual climate variability affects agricultural livelihoods throughout the world. In many regions, climate services support decision-makers in their adaptation efforts. The range of these services and the number of associated information products have increased dramatically in recent years. However, the relationships between these products and their use and usability for targeted decision-making have rarely been systematically evaluated. Here, we report on the development of a systematic and user-centered approach to assess climate information products and networks of products; and apply it to products covering the nexus of climate, agri- culture, and food security in Guatemala and Colombia. Across both countries, we assessed 28 products used for agricultural decision making, outreach, planning research, and design of emergency responses. While climate- only information products play a central role in each network, information products intended to support agri- culture and food security need to integrate information from different themes or disciplines and sources at different scales. We find that major improvements in the credibility, legitimacy, scale, cognition, procedures, recommendations, and content of most existing products are required. Brevity and clarity of language are highlighted as desirable in both countries, as well as use of trusted and publicly-available data, and non-paper- based delivery formats. The approach and methodology are valuable for facilitating the prioritization of actions for improvement and/or the development of new products, thereby helping climate services for agriculture and food security to realize their true potential.We acknowledge support from the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), under the project P42 Agroclimas 1 - Tailored agroclimatic and food security information for decision making in Latin America and P1604 Agroclimas 2 - Digitally integrated approaches for managing climate risks and increasing food security (http://bit.ly/2i3V0Nh).CCAFS is carried out with support from CGIAR Trust Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors.The views expressed in this paper cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations. We also acknowledge support from the Colombian Ministry of Agriculture (MADR), who enable the co-production of climate services in Colombia through the AClimateColombia program (http://www.aclimatecolombia.org).JR-V and DG were partly supported by the project Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD)-United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Award#: AID-BFS-G-11-00002-10 towards the CGIAR Fund (MTO 069018). CSRD (http://www.cs4rd.org/) brings together public and private organizations and agencies committed to realizing the potential to enhance climate resilience and climate-smart policies and practices throughout the world, particularly in developing countries.Bouroncle-Seoane, C.; Müller, A.; Giraldo, D.; Rios, D.; Imbach, P.; Girón, E.; Portillo, F.... (2019). A systematic approach to assess climate information products applied to agriculture and food security in Guatemala and Colombia. Climate Services. 16:1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100137S1171

Dominant atmospheric circulation patterns associated with abnormal rainfall events over Rwanda, East Africa

The study investigated the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns associated with abnormal rainfall over Rwanda during the March–May (MAM) rainfall season in 1981–2010. The data sets used in this study include: rainfall, wind, sea surface temperature (SST), and humidity. Correlation and composite analysis and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) were deployed in this study. In the wet years (1987, 1988, and 1998), the country was dominated by moisture convergence, which is in line with wind anomalies that exhibits strong westerly winds from the Atlantic Ocean and southeasterly winds originated from the Indian Ocean. These winds carry moist air mass passing over Congo to the study area, leading to wet events. On the other hand, easterly winds were noted over the study area during the dry years (1984, 2000, 2007, and 2008). The observed wet years coincided with the El Niño events, while the dry years are noted during the La Niña episodes. The dry years exhibited a wide spread of moisture divergence anomaly at the low level and were characterized by the sinking motion as opposed to the wet years with the rising motion. The anomalies of velocity potential/divergence further showed that the wet (dry) years were characterized by convergence (divergence) at the low level. The results also show that there exists a low positive correlation between mean MAM rainfall and SST over the Indian Ocean, which shows minimum influence of the Ocean. On the other hand, it was noted that rainfall amounts is significantly correlated at 95% confidence level with the elevation (altitude) of a given station. This study improves the understanding of the occurrence of wet and dry events in Rwanda, which is helpful in future monitoring of these events

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Eastern Africa Rainfall

This study evaluates the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall patterns over eastern Africa. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and interannual variability of RCM output have been assessed over three homogeneous subregions against a number of observational datasets. The ability of the RCMs in simulating large-scale global climate forcing signals is further assessed by compositing the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. It is found that most RCMs reasonably simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology over the three subregions and also reproduce the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO and IOD forcings. At the same time the analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on subregion and season; however, the ensemble mean has better agreement with observation than individual models. In general, the analysis herein demonstrates that the multimodel ensemble mean simulates eastern Africa rainfall adequately and can therefore be used for the assessment of future climate projections for the region

Rapport mensuel sur la sécurité alimentaire au Rwanda

Document collected by the University of Texas Libraries from the web-site of the Reseau Documentaire International Sur La Region Des Grands Lacs Africains (International Documentation Network on the Great African Lakes Region). The Reseau distributes "gray literature", non-published or limited distribution government or NGO documents regarding the Great Lakes area of central Africa including Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.UT Librarie