Applicability of a flood forecasting system for Nebraska watersheds

Accurate and timely flood prediction can reduce the risk of flooding, bolster preparedness, and help build resilience. In this study, we have developed a flood forecasting system prototype and checked its potential for carrying out operational flood forecasting in the state of Nebraska. This system builds upon some of the core components of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS), which is a state-of-the-art platform widely recognized around the world. We implemented our platform on a pilot basin in Nebraska (Elkhorn River basin) by installing eight stream sensors and setting up the hydrologic model component of IFIS, i.e., the Hillslope Link Model (HLM). Due to their importance in the Midwest, we particularly emphasized the snow processes and developed an improved HLM model that can account for different aspects of snow (rain-snow-partitioning, snowmelt, and snow accumulation) through simple parameterizations. Results show that the more thorough treatment of snow processes in the hydrologic model, as proposed herein, leads to better flood peak simulations. In this paper, we discuss different steps involved in developing the flood forecasting system prototype, along with the associated challenges and opportunities. Supplementary materials attached below

Opinion formation in multiplex networks with general initial distributions

We study opinion dynamics over multiplex networks where agents interact with bounded confidence. Namely, two neighbouring individuals exchange opinions and compromise if their opinions do not differ by more than a given threshold. In literature, agents are generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence bound. Here, we study analytically and numerically opinion evolution over structured networks characterised by multiple layers with respective confidence thresholds and general initial opinion distributions. Through rigorous probability analysis, we show analytically the critical thresholds at which a phase transition takes place in the long-term consensus behaviour, over multiplex networks with some regularity conditions. Our results reveal the quantitative relation between the critical threshold and initial distribution. Further, our numerical simulations illustrate the consensus behaviour of the agents in network topologies including lattices and, small-world and scale-free networks, as well as for structure-dependent convergence parameters accommodating node heterogeneity. We find that the critical thresholds for consensus tend to agree with the predicted upper bounds in Theorems 4 and 5 in this paper. Finally, our results indicate that multiplexity hinders consensus formation when the initial opinion configuration is within a bounded range and, provide insight into information diffusion and social dynamics in multiplex systems modeled by networks

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Long- and short-range correlations and their event-scale dependence in high-multiplicity pp collisions at 1as = 13 TeV

Two-particle angular correlations are measured in high-multiplicity proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV by the ALICE Collaboration. The yields of particle pairs at short-( 06\u3b7 3c 0) and long-range (1.6 < | 06\u3b7| < 1.8) in pseudorapidity are extracted on the near-side ( 06\u3c6 3c 0). They are reported as a function of transverse momentum (pT) in the range 1 < pT< 4 GeV/c. Furthermore, the event-scale dependence is studied for the first time by requiring the presence of high-pT leading particles or jets for varying pT thresholds. The results demonstrate that the long-range \u201cridge\u201d yield, possibly related to the collective behavior of the system, is present in events with high-pT processes as well. The magnitudes of the short- and long-range yields are found to grow with the event scale. The results are compared to EPOS LHC and PYTHIA 8 calculations, with and without string-shoving interactions. It is found that while both models describe the qualitative trends in the data, calculations from EPOS LHC show a better quantitative agreement for the pT dependency, while overestimating the event-scale dependency. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Measurement of electrons from beauty-hadron decays in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV

The production of electrons from beauty-hadron decays was measured at midrapidity in proton-proton (pp) and central Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon pair √s NN = 5.02 TeV, using the ALICE detector at the LHC. The cross section measured in pp collisions in the transverse momentum interval 2 < pT < 8 GeV/c was compared with models based on perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculations. The yield in the 10% most central Pb-Pb collisions, measured in the interval 2 < pT < 26 GeV/c, was used to compute the nuclear modification factor RAA, extrapolating the pp reference cross section to pT larger than 8 GeV/c. The measured R AA shows significant suppression of the yield of electrons from beauty-hadron decays at high pT and does not show a significant dependence above 8 GeV/c within uncertainties. The results are de- scribed by several theoretical models based on different implementations of the interaction of heavy quarks with a quark-gluon plasma, which predict a smaller energy loss for beauty quarks compared to light and charm quark

First measurement of Ωc 0 production in pp collisions at s=13 TeV

The inclusive production of the charm–strange baryon Omega_c^0 is measured for the first time via its hadronic decay into Omega-pi+ at midrapidity (|y|<0.5) in proton–proton (pp) collisions at the centre-of-mass energy sqrt(s) = 13 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The transverse momentum (pT) differential cross section multiplied by the branching ratio is presented in the interval 2 < pT < 12 GeV/c . The pT dependence of the Omega_C^0-baryon production relative to the prompt D^0-meson and to the prompt Csi_C^0-baryon production is compared to various models that take different hadronisation mechanisms into consideration. In the measured pT interval, the ratio of the pT-integrated cross sections of Omega_c^0 and prompt Lambda_c^+ baryons multiplied by the Omega- pi+ branching ratio is found to be larger by a factor of about 20 with a significance of about 4σ when compared to e+e- collisions

Photoproduction of low-pT J/ψ from peripheral to central Pb–Pb collisions at 5.02 TeV

An excess of J/ψ yield at very low transverse momentum (pT < 0.3 GeV/c), originating from coherent photoproduction, is observed in peripheral and semicentral hadronic Pb–Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of sqrt(sNN) = 5.02 TeV. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector via the dimuon decay channel at forward rapidity (2.5 < y <4). The nuclear modification factor at very low pT and the coherent photoproduction cross section are measured as a function of centrality down to the 10% most central collisions. These results extend the previous study at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV, confirming the clear excess over hadronic production in the pT range 0-0.3 GeV/c and the centrality range 70–90%, and establishing an excess with a significance greater than 5σ also in the 50–70% and 30–50% centrality ranges. The results are compared with earlier measurements at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV and with different theoretical predictions aiming at describing how coherent photoproduction occurs in hadronic interactions with nuclear overlap

First measurement of Λc+ production down to pT=0 in pp and p-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV

The production of prompt Lambda+c baryons has been measured at midrapidity in the transverse momentum interval 0 < pT < 1 GeV/c for the first time, in pp and p–Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon collision √s NN = 5.02 TeV. The measurement was performed in the decay channel Lambda+c → pK0S by applying new decay reconstruction techniques using a Kalman-Filter vertexing algorithm and adopting a machine-learning approach for the candidate selection. The pT -integrated Lambda+c production cross sections in both collision systems were determined and used along with the measured yields in Pb–Pb collisions to compute the pT -integrated nuclear modification factors R pPb and R AA of Lambda+c baryons, which are compared to model calculations that consider nuclear modification of the parton distribution functions. The Lambda+c /D0 baryon-to-meson yield ratio is reported for pp and p–Pb collisions. Comparisons with models that include modified hadronization processes are presented, and the implications of the results on the understanding of charm hadronization in hadronic collisions are discussed. A significant (3.7σ ) modification of the mean transverse momentum of Lambda+c baryons is seen in p–Pb collisions with respect to pp collisions, while the pT -integrated Lambda+c /D0 yield ratio was found to be consistent between the two collision systems within the uncertainties

Observation of flow angle and flow magnitude fluctuations in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

This Letter reports on the first measurements of transverse momentum dependent flow angle n and flow magnitude vn fluctuations determined using new four-particle correlators. The measurements are performed for various centralities in Pb–Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of √s NN = 5.02 TeV with ALICE at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Both flow angle and flow magnitude fluctuations are observed in the presented centrality ranges and are strongest in the most central collisions and for a transverse momentum pT > 2 GeV/c. Comparison with theoretical models, including iEBE-VISHNU, MUSIC, and AMPT, show that the measurements exhibit unique sensitivities to the initial state of heavy-ion collisions