Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Presence and activation of pro-inflammatory macrophages are associated with CRYAB expression in vitro and after peripheral nerve injury

Abstract Background Inflammation constitutes both positive and negative aspects to recovery following peripheral nerve injury. Following damage to the peripheral nervous system (PNS), immune cells such as macrophages play a beneficial role in creating a supportive environment for regrowing axons by phagocytosing myelin and axonal debris. However, a prolonged inflammatory response after peripheral nerve injury has been implicated in the pathogenesis of negative symptoms like neuropathic pain. Therefore, the post-injury inflammation must be carefully controlled to prevent secondary damage while allowing for regeneration. CRYAB (also known as alphaB-crystallin/HSPB5) is a small heat shock protein that has many protective functions including an immunomodulatory role in mouse models of multiple sclerosis, spinal cord injury, and stroke. Because its expression wanes and rebounds in the early and late periods respectively after PNS damage, and CRYAB null mice with sciatic nerve crush injury display symptoms of pain, we investigated whether CRYAB is involved in the immune response following PNS injury. Methods Sciatic nerve crush injuries were performed in age-matched Cryab knockout (Cryab−/−) and wildtype (WT) female mice. Nerve segments distal to the injury site were processed by immunohistochemistry for macrophages and myelin while protein lysates of the nerves were analyzed for cytokines and chemokines using Luminex and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Peritoneal macrophages from the two genotypes were also cultured and polarized into pro-inflammatory or anti-inflammatory phenotypes where their supernatants were analyzed for cytokines and chemokines by ELISA and protein lysates for macrophage antigen presenting markers using western blotting. Results We report that (1) more pro-inflammatory CD16/32+ macrophages are present in the nerves of Cryab−/− mice at days 14 and 21 after sciatic nerve crush-injury compared to WT counterparts, and (2) CRYAB has an immunosuppressive effect on cytokine secretion [interleukin (IL)-β, IL-6, IL-12p40, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α] from pro-inflammatory macrophages in vitro. Conclusions CRYAB may play a role in curbing the potentially detrimental pro-inflammatory macrophage response during the late stages of peripheral nerve regeneration

Science goals and mission architecture of the Europa Lander mission concept

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hand, K., Phillips, C., Murray, A., Garvin, J., Maize, E., Gibbs, R., Reeves, G., San Martin, A., Tan-Wang, G., Krajewski, J., Hurst, K., Crum, R., Kennedy, B., McElrath, T., Gallon, J., Sabahi, D., Thurman, S., Goldstein, B., Estabrook, P., Lee, S. W., Dooley, J. A., Brinckerhoff, W. B., Edgett, K. S., German, C. R., Hoehler, T. M., Hörst, S. M., Lunine, J. I., Paranicas, C., Nealson, K., Smith, D. E., Templeton, A. S., Russell, M. J., Schmidt, B., Christner, B., Ehlmann, B., Hayes, A., Rhoden, A., Willis, P., Yingst, R. A., Craft, K., Cameron, M. E., Nordheim, T., Pitesky, J., Scully, J., Hofgartner, J., Sell, S. W., Barltrop, K. J., Izraelevitz, J., Brandon, E. J., Seong, J., Jones, J.-P., Pasalic, J., Billings, K. J., Ruiz, J. P., Bugga, R. V., Graham, D., Arenas, L. A., Takeyama, D., Drummond, M., Aghazarian, H., Andersen, A. J., Andersen, K. B., Anderson, E. W., Babuscia, A., Backes, P. G., Bailey, E. S., Balentine, D., Ballard, C. G., Berisford, D. F., Bhandari, P., Blackwood, K., Bolotin, G. S., Bovre, E. A., Bowkett, J., Boykins, K. T., Bramble, M. S., Brice, T. M., Briggs, P., Brinkman, A. P., Brooks, S. M., Buffington, B. B., Burns, B., Cable, M. L., Campagnola, S., Cangahuala, L. A., Carr, G. A., Casani, J. R., Chahat, N. E., Chamberlain-Simon, B. K., Cheng, Y., Chien, S. A., Cook, B. T., Cooper, M., DiNicola, M., Clement, B., Dean, Z., Cullimore, E. A., Curtis, A. G., Croix, J-P. de la, Pasquale, P. Di, Dodd, E. M., Dubord, L. A., Edlund, J. A., Ellyin, R., Emanuel, B., Foster, J. T., Ganino, A. J., Garner, G. J., Gibson, M. T., Gildner, M., Glazebrook, K. J., Greco, M. E., Green, W. M., Hatch, S. J., Hetzel, M. M., Hoey, W. A., Hofmann, A. E., Ionasescu, R., Jain, A., Jasper, J. D., Johannesen, J. R., Johnson, G. K., Jun, I., Katake, A. B., Kim-Castet, S. Y., Kim, D. I., Kim, W., Klonicki, E. F., Kobeissi, B., Kobie, B. D., Kochocki, J., Kokorowski, M., Kosberg, J. A., Kriechbaum, K., Kulkarni, T. P., Lam, R. L., Landau, D. F., Lattimore, M. A., Laubach, S. L., Lawler, C. R., Lim, G., Lin, J. Y., Litwin, T. E., Lo, M. W., Logan, C. A., Maghasoudi, E., Mandrake, L., Marchetti, Y., Marteau, E., Maxwell, K. A., Namee, J. B. Mc, Mcintyre, O., Meacham, M., Melko, J. P., Mueller, J., Muliere, D. A., Mysore, A., Nash, J., Ono, H., Parker, J. M., Perkins, R. C., Petropoulos, A. E., Gaut, A., Gomez, M. Y. Piette, Casillas, R. P., Preudhomme, M., Pyrzak, G., Rapinchuk, J., Ratliff, J. M., Ray, T. L., Roberts, E. T., Roffo, K., Roth, D. C., Russino, J. A., Schmidt, T. M., Schoppers, M. J., Senent, J. S., Serricchio, F., Sheldon, D. J., Shiraishi, L. R., Shirvanian, J., Siegel, K. J., Singh, G., Sirota, A. R., Skulsky, E. D., Stehly, J. S., Strange, N. J., Stevens, S. U., Sunada, E. T., Tepsuporn, S. P., Tosi, L. P. C., Trawny, N., Uchenik, I., Verma, V., Volpe, R. A., Wagner, C. T., Wang, D., Willson, R. G., Wolff, J. L., Wong, A. T., Zimmer, A. K., Sukhatme, K. G., Bago, K. A., Chen, Y., Deardorff, A. M., Kuch, R. S., Lim, C., Syvertson, M. L., Arakaki, G. A., Avila, A., DeBruin, K. J., Frick, A., Harris, J. R., Heverly, M. C., Kawata, J. M., Kim, S.-K., Kipp, D. M., Murphy, J., Smith, M. W., Spaulding, M. D., Thakker, R., Warner, N. Z., Yahnker, C. R., Young, M. E., Magner, T., Adams, D., Bedini, P., Mehr, L., Sheldon, C., Vernon, S., Bailey, V., Briere, M., Butler, M., Davis, A., Ensor, S., Gannon, M., Haapala-Chalk, A., Hartka, T., Holdridge, M., Hong, A., Hunt, J., Iskow, J., Kahler, F., Murray, K., Napolillo, D., Norkus, M., Pfisterer, R., Porter, J., Roth, D., Schwartz, P., Wolfarth, L., Cardiff, E. H., Davis, A., Grob, E. W., Adam, J. R., Betts, E., Norwood, J., Heller, M. M., Voskuilen, T., Sakievich, P., Gray, L., Hansen, D. J., Irick, K. W., Hewson, J. C., Lamb, J., Stacy, S. C., Brotherton, C. M., Tappan, A. S., Benally, D., Thigpen, H., Ortiz, E., Sandoval, D., Ison, A. M., Warren, M., Stromberg, P. G., Thelen, P. M., Blasy, B., Nandy, P., Haddad, A. W., Trujillo, L. B., Wiseley, T. H., Bell, S. A., Teske, N. P., Post, C., Torres-Castro, L., Grosso, C. Wasiolek, M. Science goals and mission architecture of the Europa Lander mission concept. The Planetary Science Journal, 3(1), (2022): 22, https://doi.org/10.3847/psj/ac4493.Europa is a premier target for advancing both planetary science and astrobiology, as well as for opening a new window into the burgeoning field of comparative oceanography. The potentially habitable subsurface ocean of Europa may harbor life, and the globally young and comparatively thin ice shell of Europa may contain biosignatures that are readily accessible to a surface lander. Europa's icy shell also offers the opportunity to study tectonics and geologic cycles across a range of mechanisms and compositions. Here we detail the goals and mission architecture of the Europa Lander mission concept, as developed from 2015 through 2020. The science was developed by the 2016 Europa Lander Science Definition Team (SDT), and the mission architecture was developed by the preproject engineering team, in close collaboration with the SDT. In 2017 and 2018, the mission concept passed its mission concept review and delta-mission concept review, respectively. Since that time, the preproject has been advancing the technologies, and developing the hardware and software, needed to retire risks associated with technology, science, cost, and schedule.K.P.H., C.B.P., E.M., and all authors affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory carried out this research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant No. 80NM0018D0004). J.I.L. was the David Baltimore Distinguished Visiting Scientist during the preparation of the SDT report. JPL/Caltech2021

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (73.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol