Sentinel-1 interferometric coherence as a vegetation index for agriculture

In this study, the use of Sentinel-1 interferometric coherence data as a tool for crop monitoring has been explored. For this purpose, time series of images acquired by Sentinel-1 and 2 spanning 2017 have been analysed. The study site is an agricultural area in Sevilla, Spain, where 16 different crop species were cultivated during that year. The time series of 6-day repeat-pass coherence measured at each polarimetric channel (VV and VH), as well as their difference, have been compared to the NDVI and to the backscattering ratio (VH/VV) and other indices based on backscatter. The contribution of different decorrelation sources and the effect of the bias from the space-averaged sample coherence magnitude estimation have been evaluated. Likewise, the usage of 12 days as temporal baseline was tested. The study has been carried for three different orbits, characterised by different incidence angles and acquisition times. All results support using coherence as a measure for monitoring the crop growing season, as it shows good correlations with the NDVI (R2>0.7), and its temporal evolution fits well the main phenological stages of the crops. Although each crop shows its own evolution, the performance of coherence as a vegetation index is high for most of them. VV is generally more correlated with the NDVI than VH. For crop types characterised by low plant density, this difference decreases, with VH even showing higher correlation values in some cases. For a few crop types, such as rice, the backscattering ratio outperforms the coherence in following the growth stages of the plants. Since both coherence and backscattering are directly computed from the radar images, they could be used as complementary sources of information for this purpose. Notably, the measured coherence performs well without the need of compensating the thermal noise decorrelation or the bias due to the finite equivalent number of looks.This work was supported in part by the European Space Agency under Project SEOM-S14SCI-Land (SInCohMap), and in part by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (State Agency of Research, AEI) and the European Funds for Regional Development under Project PID2020-117303GB-C22

Time Series of Sentinel-1 Interferometric Coherence and Backscatter for Crop-Type Mapping

The potential use of the interferometric coherence measured with Sentinel-1 satellites as input feature for crop classification is explored in this study. A one-year time series of Sentinel-1 images acquired over an agricultural area in Spain, in which 17 crop species are present, is exploited for this purpose. Different options regarding temporal baselines, polarisation, and combination with radiometric data (backscattering coefficient) are analysed. Results show that both radiometric and interferometric features provide notable classification accuracy when used individually (overall accuracy lies between 70% and 80%). It is found that the shortest temporal baseline coherences (6 days) and the use of all available intensity images perform best, hence proving the advantage of the 6-day revisit time provided by the Sentinel-1 constellation with respect to longer revisit times. It is also shown that dual-pol data always provide better classification results than single-pol ones. More importantly, when both coherence and backscattering coefficient are jointly used, a significant increase of accuracy is obtained (greater than 7% in overall accuracy). Individual accuracies of all crop types are increased, and an overall accuracy above 86% is reached. This proves that both features provide complementary information, and that the combination of interferometric and radiometric radar data constitute a solid information source for this application.This work was supported in part by the European Space Agency via the ESA SEOM Program ITT under Grant AO/1-8306/15/I-NB “SEOM-S14SCI Land,” and in part by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, the State Agency of Research (AEI), and the European Funds for Regional Development (EFRD) under Project TEC2017-85244-C2-1-P

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Global estimation of above-ground biomass from spaceborne C-band scatterometer observations aided by LiDAR metrics of vegetation structure

The backscattered power recorded by a spaceborne scatterometer operating at C-band is sensitive to land surface parameters and is operationally used by some global remote sensing services, e.g., to estimate soil moisture. The estimation of forest variables, in particular above-ground biomass (AGB), from scatterometer data instead was seldom explored. Given the availability of multi-decadal sets of scatterometer observations from space, it is of interest to address the contribution of C-band scatterometer data to the quantification of carbon stocks stored in forests even if the spatial resolution of spaceborne scatterometers is very coarse. In this paper, we investigated the prospects of AGB estimation using backscatter observations by the MetOp Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. For this study, ASCAT observations acquired in 2010 were used to be contemporary with AGB datasets selected to benchmark the performance of the estimation. A Water Cloud Model that integrates two allometric equations derived from spaceborne LiDAR data reproduced the relationship between observations of radar backscatter as a function of AGB. Estimates of AGB from individual observations were then combined with a weighted average to reduce uncertainties. Finally, a correction was introduced to compensate for the offset introduced by sloped terrain and surfaces not covered by woody vegetation on the AGB estimate of a pixel. Uncertainties associated with the scatterometer observations, and the modelling framework were propagated to obtain per-pixel values of the standard deviation of an AGB estimate. The proposed method explains much of the variance in AGB estimates when compared to measurements from inventory data (R2 = 0.72) and generated unbiased estimates globally (bias: −3.3 Mg⋅ha−1). Nonetheless, the discrepancy between estimated and plot-based AGB values tended to increase for decreasing biomass level from 20% to 60% of the reference AGB level. A further assessment related to global stocks indicated that the value estimated from the scatterometer dataset (596 Pg, 95% of which 563 Pg stored in forest land) was in line with two published estimates based on forest inventory data only (571 Pg and 600 Pg, respectively). Despite the coarse spatial resolution, our results indicate that C-band scatterometer observations from space can contribute to the characterization of terrestrial biomass pools. The record of observations starting in the early 1990s may provide an unprecedented way to look at long-term forest dynamics as well as to constrain the strength of carbon-climate cycle feedback simulated by Earth System models

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4,5,6 and surface melting7,8,9 have been driven by oceanic10,11,12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet’s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate