Higher educational and economic status are key factors for the timely initiation of breastfeeding in Ethiopia:A review and meta-analysis

Aim: To investigate the association between initiation of breastfeeding within 1 hour after birth (TIBF) and maternal educational status, paternal educational status, household income, marital status, media exposure and parity in Ethiopia. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, CINAHL and WHO Global health library databases. All studies were conducted in Ethiopia and published from 2000 to 2019 were included. To obtain the pooled odds ratio (OR), data were fitted in random-effects meta-analysis model. Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using Cochran's Q test, τ2 and I2 statistics. This meta-analytic review was reported in compliance with the PRISMA statement. Results: Out of 553 studies retrieved, 25 fulfilled our inclusion criteria. High maternal educational status (P <.001), paternal educational status (P =.001) and household income (P =.002), being married (P =.001) and multiparity (P =.01) were significantly associated with TIBF. There was no significant publication bias. Conclusions: Our meta-analysis showed that TIBF was associated with high educational and economic status, being married and multiparity. This suggests that the meta-analysis detected small associations that many previous studies in Ethiopia have not been able to show. Our findings can be useful for comparisons with other countries

Low-cost liquid medium for in vitro cultivation of Leishmania parasites in low-income countries

Background: Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) induced by Leishmania aethiopica has two clinical manifestations: ulcerating, self-healing CL and non-ulcerating, non-healing CL. The grossly disfiguring multiple nodules on the face and exterior surface of limbs during non-ulcerative CL are sometimes misdiagnosed as other skin infections. Thus the need for definitive and prompt laboratory diagnosis will be required. Identifying Leishmania parasite by culture method is considered as a definitive method for initiation of treatment and as an effective component of leishmaniasis control methods. Recently the involvement of Fas (CD95) and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Related Apoptosis Inducing Ligand (TRAIL) induced apoptotic pathways were proposed to be involved in tissue destruction and ulceration during L. major induced CL. Aims: 1) to develop an alternative culture media that could minimize the cost for culturing Leishmania from patient lesions. 2) to investigate if the expression of FasL and TRAIL differs in ulcerating and non- ulcerative CL. Methods: GALF-1 media was formulated in our lab and compared to RPMI 1640 medium and conventional Locke s semi solid media (LSSM) which is one of the modifications of Novy-MacNeal-Nicolle (NNN) culture media. Amastigotes transformation, cryopreservation, recovery of parasites, cost and mass cultivation were analysed. Expression of Fas ligand (FasL), TRAIL and apoptosis were assessed by immunohistology in human skin biopsies from L. aethiopica induced ulcerative or non-ulcerative CL. FasL and TRAIL blocking experiments were performed in a murine model of CL. Results and discussion: GALF-1 is cheap and its ingredients available in a low income country such as Ethiopia. GALF-1 was able to transform amastigotes from Ethiopian patients samples and could be used to cultivate promastigotes in large quantities. Cost analysis showed 80% to 95 % decreased costs as compared to conventional media. Promastigotes cultured with GALF-1 could be cryopreserved in liquid nitrogen with comparable re-culture potential to conventional media. Affordability of diagnostic assays is a key issue for resource poor countries and the possibility to cut the cost of the efficient culture method for diagnosis through the use of inexpensive local formulated reagents could improve the diagnosis of leishmaniasis in low income endemic countries. More FasL expressing cells were detected in dermis of ulcerative CL as compared to non-ulcerative CL and controls. TRAIL expression was higher in ulcerative CL as compared to non-ulcerative CL and controls in both epidermis and dermis. Increased dermal expression of FasL and TRAIL was associated with ulcer formation during CL. This correlated with an inhibition of the ulcerative process in a murine CL model during FasL and TRAIL neutralisation.The mechanisms of the involvement of FasL and TRAIL in ulceration was not elucidated and putative reason(s) for the difference in dysregulation of apoptosis are discussed

<i>Anopheles stephensi</i> as an emerging malaria vector in the Horn of Africa with high susceptibility to Ethiopian <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> and <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> isolates

AbstractAnopheles stephensi, an efficient Asian malaria vector, recently spread into the Horn of Africa and may increase malaria receptivity in African urban areas. We assessed occurrence, genetic complexity, blood meal source and infection status of An. stephensi in Awash Sebat Kilo town, Ethiopia. We used membrane feeding assays to assess competence of local An. stephensi to P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates from clinical patients. 75.3% of the examined waterbodies were infested with An. stephensi developmental stages that were genetically closely related to isolates from Djibouti and Pakistan. Both P. vivax and P. falciparum were detected in wild-caught adult An. stephensi. Local An. stephensi was more receptive to P. vivax compared to a colony of An. arabiensis. We conclude that An. stephensi is an established vector in this part of Ethiopia, highly permissive for local P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates and presents an important new challenge for malaria control.Summary of the articleAn. stephensi, a metropolitan malaria vector that recently expanded to the Horn of African, was highly susceptible to local P. falciparum and P. vivax isolates from Ethiopia and may increase malariogenic potential of rapidly expanding urban settings in Africa.</jats:sec

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold &gt;75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold &lt;0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold &lt;1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2 center dot 5th and 97 center dot 5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62 center dot 6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Single low-dose primaquine for blocking transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria - a proposed model-derived age-based regimen for sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended blocking the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum with single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ, target dose 0.25 mg base/kg body weight), without testing for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd), when treating patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. We sought to develop an age-based SLDPQ regimen that would be suitable for sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Using data on the anti-infectivity efficacy and tolerability of primaquine (PQ), the epidemiology of anaemia, and the risks of PQ-induced acute haemolytic anaemia (AHA) and clinically significant anaemia (CSA), we prospectively defined therapeutic-dose ranges of 0.15-0.4 mg PQ base/kg for children aged 1-5 years and 0.15-0.5 mg PQ base/kg for individuals aged ≥6 years (therapeutic indices 2.7 and 3.3, respectively). We chose 1.25 mg PQ base for infants aged 6-11 months because they have the highest rate of baseline anaemia and the highest risks of AHA and CSA. We modelled an anthropometric database of 661,979 African individuals aged ≥6 months (549,127 healthy individuals, 28,466 malaria patients and 84,386 individuals with other infections/illnesses) by the Box-Cox transformation power exponential and tested PQ doses of 1-15 mg base, selecting dosing groups based on calculated mg/kg PQ doses. RESULTS: From the Box-Cox transformation power exponential model, five age categories were selected: (i) 6-11 months (n = 39,886, 6.03%), (ii) 1-5 years (n = 261,036, 45.46%), (iii) 6-9 years (n = 20,770, 3.14%), (iv) 10-14 years (n = 12,155, 1.84%) and (v) ≥15 years (n = 328,132, 49.57%) to receive 1.25, 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 15 mg PQ base for corresponding median (1st and 99th centiles) mg/kg PQ base of: (i) 0.16 (0.12-0.25), (ii) 0.21 (0.13-0.37), (iii) 0.25 (0.16-0.38), (iv) 0.26 (0.15-0.38) and (v) 0.27 (0.17-0.40). The proportions of individuals predicted to receive optimal therapeutic PQ doses were: 73.2 (29,180/39,886), 93.7 (244,537/261,036), 99.6 (20,690/20,770), 99.4 (12,086/12,155) and 99.8% (327,620/328,132), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We plan to test the safety of this age-based dosing regimen in a large randomised placebo-controlled trial (ISRCTN11594437) of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in G6PDd African children aged 0.5 - 11 years. If the regimen is safe and demonstrates adequate pharmacokinetics, it should be used to support malaria elimination

Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage