Electric current circuits in astrophysics

Cosmic magnetic structures have in common that they are anchored in a dynamo, that an external driver converts kinetic energy into internal magnetic energy, that this magnetic energy is transported as Poynting fl ux across the magnetically dominated structure, and that the magnetic energy is released in the form of particle acceleration, heating, bulk motion, MHD waves, and radiation. The investigation of the electric current system is particularly illuminating as to the course of events and the physics involved. We demonstrate this for the radio pulsar wind, the solar flare, and terrestrial magnetic storms

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

Dose-Response of a Norovirus GII.2 Controlled Human Challenge Model Inoculum

Background: Genogroup II noroviruses are the most common cause of acute infectious gastroenteritis. We evaluated the use of a new GII.2 inoculum in a human challenge. Methods: Forty-four healthy adults (36 secretor-positive and 8 secretor-negative for histo-blood group antigens) were challenged with ascending doses of a new safety-Tested Snow Mountain virus (SMV) GII.2 norovirus inoculum (1.2×104 to 1.2×107 genome equivalent copies [GEC]; n=38) or placebo (n=6). Illness was defined as diarrhea and/or vomiting postchallenge in subjects with evidence of infection (defined as GII.2 norovirus RNA detection in stool and/or anti-SMV immunoglobulin G [IgG] seroconversion). Results: The highest dose was associated with SMV infection in 90%, and illness in 70% of subjects with 10 of 12 secretor-positive (83%) and 4 of 8 secretor-negative (50%) becoming ill. There was no association between prechallenge anti-SMV serum IgG concentration, carbohydrate-binding blockade antibody, or salivary immunoglobulin A and infection. The median infectious dose (ID50) was 5.1×105 GEC. Conclusions: High rates of infection and illness were observed in both secretor-positive and secretor-negative subjects in this challenge study. However, a high dose will be required to achieve the target of 75% illness to make this an efficient model for evaluating potential norovirus vaccines and therapeutics. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02473224

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

J2: An evaluation of new estimates from GPS, GRACE, and load models compared to SLR

Changes in J2, resulting from past and present changes in Earth's climate, are traditionally observed by Satellite Laser ranging (SLR). Assuming an elastic Earth, it is possible to infer changes in J2 from changes in Earth's shape observed by GPS. We compare estimates of non-secular J2 changes from GPS, SLR, GRACE, and a load model. The GPS and SLR annual signals agree but are different (16%) to the load model. Subtraction of the load model removes the annual variation from GPS, SLR, and GRACE, and the semi-annual variation in GPS. The GPS and SLR long-term signals are highly correlated, but GPS is better correlated with the loading model. Subtraction of the load model removes the 1998 anomaly from the GPS J2 series but not completely from the SLR J2 series, suggesting that the SLR anomaly may not be entirely due to mass re-distribution as has been presumed.Aerospace Engineerin