How Does Consumer Spending Change During Boom, Recession, and Recovery?

[Excerpt] This Beyond the Numbers article compares relative importances based on data collected during three periods that can be characterized roughly as boom, recession, and recovery. The “recovery” era is represented by the current CPI relative importances, which are based on surveys conducted in 2011–2012. These relative importances replaced figures that were based on data collected during 2009–2010, and represent the “recession” period. (While the economy was recovering at least during the latter part of this period, it seems reasonable to expect consumer behavior to reflect recession conditions.) Because the 2007–2008 period was one of transition from boom to recession, we will examine the weights based on 2005–2006 data, as representing spending during a booming economy

Measures of Gasoline Price Change

[Excerpt] No prices are more visible to the public than gasoline prices. Even for people who don’t have to fill up a tank on a regular basis, gasoline prices are likely to be in their view, posted every day. In addition, no prices have more of an impact on short-run movements in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Gasoline prices are so much more volatile than other CPI components that, even though gasoline makes up less than 6 percent of the CPI, it is often the main source of monthly price movements in the all items index. Moreover, because they are so visible and gasoline is purchased so frequently, gasoline prices have a major impact on the perception of prices. Constantly seeing prices at the pump creep ever higher will often create a perception of broader inflation—and, of course, higher gasoline prices are likely to eventually have an impact on other prices as transportation costs increase. So, it is particularly important that gasoline price changes be measured accurately and reliably. Fortunately, gasoline is one of the few consumer goods for which there are many sources of price data. In fact, the ease of price collection makes it feasible for other government agencies and even private sources to create reliable measures. On the government side, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes extensive gasoline price data. Among private sources are the American Automobile Association, the Oil Price Information Service, and the Lundberg Survey. Furthermore, gasoline is one of the few nonfood items for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes an average price series as well as an index; the fact that gasoline is a relatively homogenous product makes meaningful average price data possible. This article examines three measures of gasoline prices: the BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) U.S. city average for all types of gasoline, the BLS CPI average price series for all types of gasoline, and the EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices for all grades of gasoline. The purpose of the article is to identify how these measures have behaved over the 10-year period from December 2002 to December 2012

Writing an Escalation Contract Using the Consumer Price Index

[Excerpt] Each year thousands of people write contracts with escalation clauses that are tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Escalation contracts call for an increase in some type of payment in the event of an increase in prices. These contracts are used in a wide variety of ways, from adjusting rent prices to adding cost-of-living adjustments to alimony payments and wage contracts. Unfortunately, many escalation contracts tied to the CPI are vague. For example, a contract may stipulate that “the Consumer Price Index (CPI) be used to escalate an apartment rent, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes thousands of CPIs each month, so a more carefully worded contract could minimize ambiguity and the likelihood of future disputes. This issue of BEYOND THE NUMBERS can help those who use the CPI to write escalation clauses to create a more comprehensive contract

Input Subsidies to Improve Smallholder Maize Productivity in Malawi: Toward an African Green Revolution

Recent hikes in food prices have created economic and social turmoil in many African countries. But in Malawi, fertilizer and seed subsidies have enabled small-scale farmers to improve maize productivity and achieve food security

PDX1 dynamically regulates pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma initiation and maintenance

Aberrant activation of embryonic signaling pathways is frequent in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA), making developmental regulators therapeutically attractive. Here we demonstrate diverse functions for pancreatic and duodenal homeobox 1 (PDX1), a transcription factor indispensable for pancreas development, in the progression from normal exocrine cells to metastatic PDA. We identify a critical role for PDX1 in maintaining acinar cell identity, thus resisting the formation of pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-derived PDA. Upon neoplastic transformation, the role of PDX1 changes from tumor-suppressive to oncogenic. Interestingly, subsets of malignant cells lose PDX1 expression while undergoing epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and PDX1 loss is associated with poor outcome. This stage-specific functionality arises from profound shifts in PDX1 chromatin occupancy from acinar cells to PDA. In summary, we report distinct roles of PDX1 at different stages of PDA, suggesting that therapeutic approaches against this potential target need to account for its changing functions at different stages of carcinogenesis. These findings provide insight into the complexity of PDA pathogenesis and advocate a rigorous investigation of therapeutically tractable targets at distinct phases of PDA development and progression

Free surface flows emerging from beneath a semi-infinite plate with constant vorticity

The free surface flow past a semi-infinite horizontal plate in a finite-depth fluid is considered. It is assumed that the fluid is incompressible and inviscid and that the flow approaches a uniform shear flow downstream. Exact relations are derived using conservation of mass and momentum for the case where the downstream free surface is flat. The complete nonlinear problem is solved numerically using a boundary integral method and these waveless solutions are shown to exist only when the height of the plate above the bottom is greater than the height of the uniform shear flow. Interesting results are found for various values of the constant vorticity. Solutions with downstream surface waves are also considered, and nonlinear results of this type are compared with linear results found previously. These solutions can be used to model the flow near the stern of a (two-dimensional) ship

Local governance in the new Police Scotland:Renegotiating power, recognition and responsiveness

A marked, but by no means universal, trend in Europe over the last decade or so has been the centralization or amalgamation of regional police organizations into larger or single units. Scotland is a case in point, its eight regional services becoming one Police Scotland in April 2013. Although the reform process was relatively consensual, the new organization has been the subject of numerous controversies, some of which reflect an actual or perceived loss of the local in Scottish policing. Drawing on a qualitative study of the emerging local governance arrangements, we explore the negotiated character of large-scale organizational reform, demonstrating that it is best understood as a process not an event. We also argue that appeals to localism are not mere expressions of sentiment and resistance to change. They reflect the particular historical development of policing and public service delivery in Scotland at the level of municipal government, but also strong convictions that policing should be subject to democratic deliberation and should recognize and be responsive to those subject to it – what we argue here are necessary functions of police governance in general

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Resilience to obesity among socioeconomically disadvantaged women : the READI study

Objective: This cross-sectional study aimed to identify sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics of ‘overweight-resilient’ women, that is, women who were in a healthy body weight range, despite living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods that place them at increased risk of obesity. The study also aimed to test a comprehensive theoretically derived model of the associations between intrapersonal, social and environmental factors and obesity among this target group.Participants: A total of 3235 women aged 18–45 years from 80 urban and rural neighbourhoods throughout Victoria, Australia, participated in the Resilience for Eating and Activity Despite Inequality study.Measurements: Women reported height, weight, sociodemographic characteristics, leisure-time physical activity, dietary behaviours and a range of theoretically derived cognitive, social and neighbourhood environmental characteristics hypothesized to influence obesity risk. A theoretical model predicting body mass index (BMI) was tested using structural equation models.Results: Women classified as ‘resilient’ to obesity tended to be younger, born overseas, more highly educated, unmarried and to have higher or undisclosed household incomes. They engaged in more leisure-time physical activity and consumed less fast foods and soft drinks than overweight/obese women. Neighbourhood characteristics, social characteristics and cognitive characteristics all contributed to explaining variation in BMI in the hypothesized directions.Conclusions: These results demonstrate several characteristics of women appearing ‘resilient’ to obesity, despite their increased risk conferred by residing in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Acknowledging the cross-sectional study design, the results advance theoretical frameworks aimed at investigating obesity risk by providing evidence in support of a comprehensive model of direct and indirect effects on obesity of neighbourhood, as well as social, cognitive and behavioural characteristics