The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol’s foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994

Understanding demographic limiting factors to species recovery: Nest-site suitability and breeding ecology of Phelsuma guentheri on Round Island, Mauritius

The island of Mauritius in the Mascarenes has already suffered high levels of extinction, and habitat destruction and invasive alien species have pushed many of the remaining endemic species to the brink of extinction. Round Island, a small island northeast of Mauritius, is home to remnant populations of several reptile species that were once distributed across Mauritius. One of the most threatened of these is Günther’s gecko Phelsuma guentheri, where despite extensive management efforts, population size remains small and below expectation. We identify determinants of nest-site suitability across Round Island, and examine whether suitable nest sites are a limiting factor for the abundance of P. guentheri. Over one breeding season, we recorded and monitored a high number (269) of nest sites harbouring a total of 1475 eggs. We used the number of eggs at each nest, and the hatching success as proxies for nest-site suitability. To study the reproductive behaviour of P. guentheri, we installed trail cameras at three nest sites. We did not find the expected high frequency of use of hardwood trees as nest sites, as found on Ile aux Aigrettes to the southeast of Mauritius, probably because hardwood trees are still relatively sparse and small on Round Island. Instead, the endemic palm Latania loddigesii was the most used nest sites, harbouring 78.8% of all nests with 56.3% of all eggs. Hatching success was high for palm nest sites (90.6%), rock surfaces (91.8%), and on the endemic screw pine Pandanus vandermeeschii (96%), rates that are similar to that reported from hardwood trees on Ile aux Aigrettes (~90%). Communal nesting occurred on all substrates, with up to five individuals using the same nest site. Egg-laying took place at dusk or at night, lasting around 30 min, whereas hatching occurred mostly during the day, lasting 2–107 min. Females laid eggs every 34 days on average, and produced up to four clutches of 1–2 eggs each within the season. We conclude that P. guentheri does not suffer from nest site limitation on Round Island, and that reproductive success is high in terms of both numbers of eggs laid and hatching success, likely due to ongoing habitat restoration. Further research is needed to investigate the factors inhibiting abundance and distribution of P. guentheri on Round Island

New universal ITS2 primers for high-resolution herbivory analyses using DNA metabarcoding in both tropical and temperate zones

DNA metabarcoding is a rapidly growing technique for obtaining detailed dietary information. Current metabarcoding methods for herbivory, using a single locus, can lack taxonomic resolution for some applications. We present novel primers for the second internal transcribed spacer of nuclear ribosomal DNA (ITS2) designed for dietary studies in Mauritius and the UK, which have the potential to give unrivalled taxonomic coverage and resolution from a short-amplicon barcode. In silico testing used three databases of plant ITS2 sequences from UK and Mauritian floras (native and introduced) totalling 6561 sequences from 1790 species across 174 families. Our primers were well-matched in silico to 88% of species, providing taxonomic resolution of 86.1%, 99.4% and 99.9% at the species, genus and family levels, respectively. In vitro, the primers amplified 99% of Mauritian (n = 169) and 100% of UK (n = 33) species, and co-amplified multiple plant species from degraded faecal DNA from reptiles and birds in two case studies. For the ITS2 region, we advocate taxonomic assignment based on best sequence match instead of a clustering approach. With short amplicons of 187–387 bp, these primers are suitable for metabarcoding plant DNA from faecal samples, across a broad geographic range, whilst delivering unparalleled taxonomic resolution

Individual consistency in migration strategies of a tropical seabird, the Round Island petrel

Background: In migratory species, the extent of within- and between-individual variation in migratory strategies can influence potential rates and directions of responses to environmental changes. Quantifying this variation requires tracking of many individuals on repeated migratory journeys. At temperate and higher latitudes, low levels of within-individual variation in migratory behaviours are common and may reflect repeated use of predictable resources in these seasonally-structured environments. However, variation in migratory behaviours in the tropics, where seasonal predictability of food resources can be weaker, remains largely unknown. Methods: Round Island petrels (Pterodroma sp.) are tropical, pelagic seabirds that breed all year round and perform long-distance migrations. Using multi-year geolocator tracking data from 62 individuals between 2009 and 2018, we quantify levels of within- and between-individual variation in non-breeding distributions and timings. Results: We found striking levels of between-individual variation in at-sea movements and timings, with non-breeding migrations to different areas occurring across much of the Indian Ocean and throughout the whole year. Despite this, repeat-tracking of individual petrels revealed remarkably high levels of spatial and temporal consistency in within-individual migratory behaviour, particularly for petrels that departed at similar times in different years and for those departing in the austral summer. However, while the same areas were used by individuals in different years, they were not necessarily used at the same times during the non-breeding period. Conclusions: Even in tropical systems with huge ranges of migratory routes and timings, our results suggest benefits of consistency in individual migratory behaviours. Identifying the factors that drive and maintain between-individual variation in migratory behaviour, and the consequences for breeding success and survival, will be key to understanding the consequences of environmental change across migratory ranges

Avoiding bias in estimates of population size for translocation management

Mark–recapture surveys are commonly used to monitor translocated populations globally. Data gathered are then used to estimate demographic parameters, such as abundance and survival, using Jolly–Seber (JS) models. However, in translocated populations initial population size is known and failure to account for this may bias parameter estimates, which are important for informing conservation decisions during population establishment. Here, we provide methods to account for known initial population size in JS models by incorporating a separate component likelihood for translocated individuals, using a maximum‐likelihood estimation, with models that can be fitted using either R or MATLAB. We use simulated data and a case study of a threatened lizard species with low capture probability to demonstrate that unconstrained JS models may overestimate the size of translocated populations, especially in the early stages of post‐release monitoring. Our approach corrects this bias; we use our simulations to demonstrate that overestimates of population size between 78% and 130% can occur in the unconstrained JS models when the detection probability is below 0.3 compared to 1%–8.9% for our constrained model. Our case study did not show an overestimate; however accounting for the initial population size greatly reduced error in all parameter estimates and prevented boundary estimates. Adopting the corrected JS model for translocations will help managers to obtain more robust estimates of the population sizes of translocated animals, better informing future management including reinforcement decisions, and ultimately improving translocation success

Is adolescent body mass index and waist circumference associated with the food environments surrounding schools and homes? A longitudinal analysis

Background: There has been considerable interest in the role of access to unhealthy food options as a determinant of weight status. There is conflict across the literature as to the existence of such an association, partly due to the dominance of cross-sectional study designs and inconsistent definitions of the food environment. The aim of our study is to use longitudinal data to examine if features of the food environment are associated to measures of adolescent weight status. Methods: Data were collected from secondary schools in Leeds (UK) and included measurements at school years 7 (ages 11/12), 9 (13/14), and 11 (15/16). Outcome variables, for weight status, were standardised body mass index and standardised waist circumference. Explanatory variables included the number of fast food outlets, supermarkets and ‘other retail outlets’ located within a 1 km radius of an individual’s home or school, and estimated travel route between these locations (with a 500 m buffer). Multi-level models were fit to analyse the association (adjusted for confounders) between the explanatory and outcome variables. We also examined changes in our outcome variables between each time period. Results: We found few associations between the food environment and measures of adolescent weight status. Where significant associations were detected, they mainly demonstrated a positive association between the number of amenities and weight status (although effect sizes were small). Examining changes in weight status between time periods produced mainly non-significant or inconsistent associations. Conclusions: Our study found little consistent evidence of an association between features of the food environment and adolescent weight status. It suggests that policy efforts focusing on the food environment may have a limited effect at tackling the high prevalence of obesity if not supported by additional strategies

Individual consistency in migration strategies of a tropical seabird, the Round Island petrel

Background: In migratory species, the extent of within- and between-individual variation in migratory strategies can influence potential rates and directions of responses to environmental changes. Quantifying this variation requires tracking of many individuals on repeated migratory journeys. At temperate and higher latitudes, low levels of within-individual variation in migratory behaviours are common and may reflect repeated use of predictable resources in these seasonally-structured environments. However, variation in migratory behaviours in the tropics, where seasonal predictability of food resources can be weaker, remains largely unknown. Methods: Round Island petrels (Pterodroma sp.) are tropical, pelagic seabirds that breed all year round and perform long-distance migrations. Using multi-year geolocator tracking data from 62 individuals between 2009 and 2018, we quantify levels of within- and between-individual variation in non-breeding distributions and timings. Results: We found striking levels of between-individual variation in at-sea movements and timings, with non-breeding migrations to different areas occurring across much of the Indian Ocean and throughout the whole year. Despite this, repeat-tracking of individual petrels revealed remarkably high levels of spatial and temporal consistency in within-individual migratory behaviour, particularly for petrels that departed at similar times in different years and for those departing in the austral summer. However, while the same areas were used by individuals in different years, they were not necessarily used at the same times during the non-breeding period. Conclusions: Even in tropical systems with huge ranges of migratory routes and timings, our results suggest benefits of consistency in individual migratory behaviours. Identifying the factors that drive and maintain between-individual variation in migratory behaviour, and the consequences for breeding success and survival, will be key to understanding the consequences of environmental change across migratory ranges

Ecological inference using data from accelerometers needs careful protocols

1. Accelerometers in animal-attached tags are powerful tools in behavioural ecology, they can be used to determine behaviour and provide proxies for movement-based energy expenditure. Researchers are collecting and archiving data across systems, seasons and device types. However, using data repositories to draw ecological inference requires a good understanding of the error introduced according to sensor type and position on the study animal and protocols for error assessment and minimisation. 2. Using laboratory trials, we examine the absolute accuracy of tri-axial accelerometers and determine how inaccuracies impact measurements of dynamic body acceleration (DBA), a proxy for energy expenditure, in human participants. We then examine how tag type and placement affect the acceleration signal in birds, using pigeons Columba livia flying in a wind tunnel, with tags mounted simultaneously in two positions, and back- and tail-mounted tags deployed on wild kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla. Finally, we present a case study where two generations of tag were deployed using different attachment procedures on red-tailed tropicbirds Phaethon rubricauda foraging in different seasons. 3. Bench tests showed that individual acceleration axes required a two-level correction to eliminate measurement error. This resulted in DBA differences of up to 5% between calibrated and uncalibrated tags for humans walking at a range of speeds. Device position was associated with greater variation in DBA, with upper and lower back-mounted tags varying by 9% in pigeons, and tail- and back-mounted tags varying by 13% in kittiwakes. The tropicbird study highlighted the difficulties of attributing changes in signal amplitude to a single factor when confounding influences tend to covary, as DBA varied by 25% between seasons. 4. Accelerometer accuracy, tag placement and attachment critically affect the signal amplitude and thereby the ability of the system to detect biologically meaningful phenomena. We propose a simple method to calibrate accelerometers that can be executed under field conditions. This should be used prior to deployments and archived with resulting data. We also suggest a way that researchers can assess accuracy in previously collected data, and caution that variable tag placement and attachment can increase sensor noise and even generate trends that have no biological meaning

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London