Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

How khipus indicated labour contributions in an Andean village: an explanation of colour banding, seriation and ethnocategories

This research was supported by a Global Exploration Grant from the National Geographic Society (GEFNE120-14).New archival and ethnographic evidence reveals that Inka style khipus were used in the Andean community of Santiago de Anchucaya to record contributions to communal labour obligations until the 1940s. Archival testimony from the last khipu specialist in Anchucaya, supplemented by interviews with his grandson, provides the first known expert explanation for how goods, labour obligations, and social groups were indicated on Inka style Andean khipus. This evidence, combined with the analysis of Anchucaya khipus in the Museo Nacional de Arqueología, Antropología y Historia Peruana, furnishes a local model for the relationship between the two most frequent colour patterns (colour banding and seriation) that occur in khipus. In this model, colour banding is associated with individual data whilst seriation is associated with aggregated data. The archival and ethnographic evidence also explains how labour and goods were categorized in uniquely Andean ways as they were represented on khipus.PostprintPeer reviewe

Search for Exotic Strange Quark Matter in High Energy Nuclear Reactions

We report on a search for metastable positively and negatively charged states of strange quark matter in Au+Pb reactions at 11.6 A GeV/c in experiment E864. We have sampled approximately six billion 10% most central Au+Pb interactions and have observed no strangelet states (baryon number A < 100 droplets of strange quark matter). We thus set upper limits on the production of these exotic states at the level of 1-6 x 10^{-8} per central collision. These limits are the best and most model independent for this colliding system. We discuss the implications of our results on strangelet production mechanisms, and also on the stability question of strange quark matter.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Nuclear Physics A (Carl Dover memorial edition

Improving prevention, monitoring and management of diabetes among ethnic minorities: contextualizing the six G’s approach

Objective: People from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups are known to have an increased risk of devel-oping diabetes and face greater barriers to accessing healthcare resources compared to their ‘white British’ counter-parts. The extent of these barriers varies by demographics and different socioeconomic circumstances that people find themselves in. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss a new framework to understand, disentangle and tackle these barriers so that improvements in the effectiveness of diabetes interventions for BAME communities can be achieved. Results: The main mediators of lifestyle behavioural change are gender, generation, geography, genes, God/religion, and gaps in knowledge and economic resources. Dietary and cultural practices of these individuals significantly vary according to gender, generation, geographical origin and religion. Recognition of these factors is essential in increas-ing knowledge of healthy eating, engagement in physical activity and utilisation of healthcare services. Use of the six G’s framework alongside a community centred approach is crucial in developing and implementing culturally sensi-tive interventions for diabetes prevention and management in BAME communities. This could improve their health outcomes and overall wellbeing

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Effects of conversion of native cerrado vegetation to pasture on soil hydro-physical properties, evapotranspiration and streamflow on the Amazonian agricultural frontier

Understanding the impacts of land-use change on landscape-hydrological dynamics is one of the main challenges in the Northern Brazilian Cerrado biome, where the Amazon agricultural frontier is located. Motivated by the gap in literature assessing these impacts, we characterized the soil hydro-physical properties and quantified surface water fluxes from catchments under contrasting land-use in this region. We used data from field measurements in two headwater micro-catchments with similar physical characteristics and different land use, i.e. cerrado sensu stricto vegetation and pasture for extensive cattle ranching. We determined hydraulic and physical properties of the soils, applied ground-based remote sensing techniques to estimate evapotranspiration, and monitored streamflow from October 2012 to September 2014. Our results show significant differences in soil hydro-physical properties between the catchments, with greater bulk density and smaller total porosity in the pasture catchment. We found that evapotranspiration is smaller in the pasture (639 ± 31% mm yr-1) than in the cerrado catchment (1,004 ± 24% mm yr-1), and that streamflow from the pasture catchment is greater with runoff coefficients of 0.40 for the pasture and 0.27 for the cerrado catchment. Overall, our results confirm that conversion of cerrado vegetation to pasture causes soil hydro-physical properties deterioration, reduction in evapotranspiration reduction, and increased streamflow

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Search for Strange Quark Matter Produced in Relativistic Heavy Ion Collisions

We present the final results from Experiment 864 of a search for charged and neutral strange quark matter produced in interactions of 11.5 GeV/c per nucleon Au beams with Pt or Pb targets. Searches were made for strange quark matter with A>4. Approximately 30 billion 10% most central collisions were sampled and no strangelet states with A<100 were observed. We find 90% confidence level upper limits of approximately 10^{-8} per central collision for both charged and neutral strangelets. These limits are for strangelets with proper lifetimes greater than 50 ns. Also limits for H^{0}-d and pineut production are given. The above limits are compared with the predictions of various models. The yields of light nuclei from coalescence are measured and a penalty factor for the addition of one nucleon to the coalescing nucleus is determined. This is useful in gauging the significance of our upper limits and also in planning future searches for strange quark matter.Comment: 35 pages, 18 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Plasticity and rectangularity in survival curves

Living systems inevitably undergo a progressive deterioration of physiological function with age and an increase of vulnerability to disease and death. To maintain health and survival, living systems should optimize survival strategies with adaptive interactions among molecules, cells, organs, individuals, and environments, which arises plasticity in survival curves of living systems. In general, survival dynamics in a population is mathematically depicted by a survival rate, which monotonically changes from 1 to 0 with age. It would be then useful to find an adequate function to describe complicated survival dynamics. Here we describe a flexible survival function, derived from the stretched exponential function by adopting an age-dependent shaping exponent. We note that the exponent is associated with the fractal-like scaling in cumulative mortality rate. The survival function well depicts general features in survival curves; healthy populations exhibit plasticity and evolve towards rectangular-like survival curves, as examples in humans or laboratory animals