Bayes’ Rule for Clinicians: An Introduction

Bayes’ Rule is a way of calculating conditional probabilities. It is difficult to find an explanation of its relevance that is both mathematically comprehensive and easily accessible to all readers. This article tries to fill that void, by laying out the nature of Bayes’ Rule and its implications for clinicians in a way that assumes little or no background in probability theory. It builds on Meehl and Rosen's (1955) classic paper, by laying out algebraic proofs that they simply allude to, and by providing extremely simple and intuitively accessible examples of the concepts that they assumed their reader understood

Infant EEG activity as a biomarker for autism: a promising approach or a false promise?

The ability to determine an infant's likelihood of developing autism via a relatively simple neurological measure would constitute an important scientific breakthrough. In their recent publication in this journal, Bosl and colleagues claim that a measure of EEG complexity can be used to detect, with very high accuracy, infants at high risk for autism (HRA). On the surface, this appears to be that very scientific breakthrough and as such the paper has received widespread media attention. But a close look at how these high accuracy rates were derived tells a very different story. This stems from a conflation between "high risk" as a population-level property and "high risk" as a property of an individual. We describe the approach of Bosl et al. and examine their results with respect to baseline prevalence rates, the inclusion of which is necessary to distinguish infants with a biological risk of autism from typically developing infants with a sibling with autism. This is an important distinction that should not be overlooked

Injury occurrence and mood states during a desert ultramarathon

Objective: To describe injuries and illnesses presented and profile mood states and sleep patterns during a desert environment ultramarathon.Design: Prospective study gathering data on mood states and injury patterns.Setting: Gobi Desert, Mongolia.Participants: Eleven male competitors (mean mass, 83.7 ± 7.1 kg; body mass index, 24 ± 1.79 kg/m2; age, 33 ± 11 years).Interventions: Injuries were clinically assessed and recorded each day.Main Outcome Measures: Mood state was assessed using the Brunel Mood Scale.Results: All subjects presented with abrasion injuries, dehydration, and heat stress. Vigor decreased over the first 6 days while fatigue increased (P < 0.05). Fatigue and vigor recovered on the final morning. The observed recovery was set against increasing levels of depression, tension, and confusion, which peaked at days 5/6 but returned to day 1 levels on the 7th day morning (P < 0.05). Mean sleep duration (6:17 ± 00:48 hours:minutes; lowest on day 6, 4:43 ± 01:54 hours:minutes) did not vary significantly across the 7 days but did correlate with mood alterations (P < 0.05). Increased anger and fatigue correlated strongly with sleep disruption (r = 0.736 and 0.768, respectively). Vigor and depression displayed a moderately strong correlation to sleep (r = 0.564 and −0.530).Conclusions: Injury patterns were similar to those reported in other adventure/ultradistance events. Consistent with previous work, data show increased fatigue and reduced vigor in response to an arduous physical challenge

A dominant gain-of-function mutation in universal tyrosine kinase <i>SRC </i>causes thrombocytopenia, myelofibrosis, bleeding, and bone pathologies

The Src family kinase (SFK)member SRC is amajor target in drug development because it is activated in many human cancers, yet deleterious SRC germline mutations have not been reported. We used genome sequencing and Human Phenotype Ontology patient coding to identify a gain-of-function mutation in SRC causing thrombocytopenia, myelofibrosis, bleeding, and bone pathologies in nine cases. Modeling of the E527K substitution predicts loss of SRC's self-inhibitory capacity, whichwe confirmedwith in vitro studies showing increased SRC kinase activity and enhanced Tyr419 phosphorylation in COS-7 cells overexpressing E527K SRC. The active form of SRC predominates in patients' platelets, resulting in enhanced overall tyrosine phosphorylation. Patientswith myelofibrosis have hypercellular bone marrow with trilineage dysplasia, and their stem cells grown in vitro form more myeloid and megakaryocyte (MK) colonies than control cells. These MKs generate platelets that are dysmorphic, low in number, highly variable in size, and have a paucity of a-granules. Overactive SRC in patient-derived MKs causes a reduction in proplatelet formation, which can be rescued by SRC kinase inhibition. Stem cells transduced with lentiviral E527K SRC formMKs with a similar defect and enhanced tyrosine phosphorylation levels. Patient-derived and E527K-transduced MKs show Y419 SRC- positive stained podosomes that induce altered actin organization. Expression of mutated src in zebrafish recapitulates patients' blood and bone phenotypes. Similar studies of platelets andMKs may reveal the mechanism underlying the severe bleeding frequently observed in cancer patients treated with next-generation SFK inhibitors. © 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved

A gain-of-function variant in <i>DIAPH1 </i>causes dominant macrothrombocytopenia and hearing loss

Macrothrombocytopenia (MTP) is a heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by enlarged and reduced numbers of circulating platelets, sometimes resulting in abnormal bleeding. In most MTP, this phenotype arises because of altered regulation of platelet formation from megakaryocytes (MK). We report the identification of DIAPH1, which encodes the Rho-effector diaphanous-related formin 1 (DIAPH1), as a candidate gene for MTP using exome sequencing, ontological phenotyping and similarity regression. We describe two unrelated pedigrees with MTP and sensorineural hearing loss that segregate with a DIAPH1 p.R1213* variant predicting partial truncation of the DIAPH1 diaphanous autoregulatory domain. The R1213* variant was associated with reduced proplatelet formation from cultured MKs, cell clustering and abnormal cortical filamentous actin. Similarly, in platelets there was increased filamentous actin and stable microtubules, indicating constitutive activation of DIAPH1. Over-expression of DIAPH1 R1213* in cells reproduced the cytoskeletal alterations found in platelets. Our description of a novel disorder of platelet formation and hearing loss extends the repertoire of DIAPH1-related disease and provides new insights into the autoregulation of DIAPH1 activity

Transcriptional diversity during lineage commitment of human blood progenitors.

Blood cells derive from hematopoietic stem cells through stepwise fating events. To characterize gene expression programs driving lineage choice, we sequenced RNA from eight primary human hematopoietic progenitor populations representing the major myeloid commitment stages and the main lymphoid stage. We identified extensive cell type-specific expression changes: 6711 genes and 10,724 transcripts, enriched in non-protein-coding elements at early stages of differentiation. In addition, we found 7881 novel splice junctions and 2301 differentially used alternative splicing events, enriched in genes involved in regulatory processes. We demonstrated experimentally cell-specific isoform usage, identifying nuclear factor I/B (NFIB) as a regulator of megakaryocyte maturation-the platelet precursor. Our data highlight the complexity of fating events in closely related progenitor populations, the understanding of which is essential for the advancement of transplantation and regenerative medicine.The work described in this article was primarily supported by the European Commission Seventh Framework Program through the BLUEPRINT grant with code HEALTH-F5-2011-282510 (D.H., F.B., G.C., J.H.A.M., K.D., L.C., M.F., S.C., S.F., and S.P.G.). Research in the Ouwehand laboratory is further supported by program grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR, www.nihr.ac.uk; to A.A., M.K., P.P., S.B.G.J., S.N., and W.H.O.) and the British Heart Foundation under nos. RP-PG-0310-1002 and RG/09/12/28096 (www.bhf.org.uk; to A.R. and W.J.A.). K.F. and M.K. were supported by Marie Curie funding from the NETSIM FP7 program funded by the European Commission. The laboratory receives funding from the NHS Blood and Transplant for facilities. The Cambridge BioResource (www.cambridgebioresource.org.uk), the Cell Phenotyping Hub, and the Cambridge Translational GenOmics laboratory (www.catgo.org.uk) are supported by an NIHR grant to the Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The BRIDGE-Bleeding and Platelet Disorders Consortium is supported by the NIHR BioResource—Rare Diseases (http://bioresource.nihr.ac.uk/; to E.T., N.F., and Whole Exome Sequencing effort). Research in the Soranzo laboratory (L.V., N.S., and S. Watt) is further supported by the Wellcome Trust (Grant Codes WT098051 and WT091310) and the EU FP7 EPIGENESYS initiative (Grant Code 257082). Research in the Cvejic laboratory (A. Cvejic and C.L.) is funded by the Cancer Research UK under grant no. C45041/A14953. S.J.S. is funded by NIHR. M.E.F. is supported by a British Heart Foundation Clinical Research Training Fellowship, no. FS/12/27/29405. E.B.-M. is supported by a Wellcome Trust grant, no. 084183/Z/07/Z. Research in the Laffan laboratory is supported by Imperial College BRC. F.A.C., C.L., and S. Westbury are supported by Medical Research Council Clinical Training Fellowships, and T.B. by a British Society of Haematology/NHS Blood and Transplant grant. R.J.R. is a Principal Research Fellow of the Wellcome Trust, grant no. 082961/Z/07/Z. Research in the Flicek laboratory is also supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant no. 095908) and EMBL. Research in the Bertone laboratory is supported by EMBL. K.F. and C.v.G. are supported by FWO-Vlaanderen through grant G.0B17.13N. P.F. is a compensated member of the Omicia Inc. Scientific Advisory Board. This study made use of data generated by the UK10K Consortium, derived from samples from the Cohorts arm of the project.This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on 26/9/14 in volume 345, number 6204, DOI: 10.1126/science.1251033. This version will be under embargo until the 26th of March 2015

Expanded repertoire of RASGRP2 variants responsible for platelet dysfunction and severe bleeding.

Heritable platelet function disorders (PFDs) are genetically heterogeneous and poorly characterized. Pathogenic variants in RASGRP2, which encodes calcium and diacylglycerol-regulated guanine exchange factor I (CalDAG-GEFI), have been reported previously in 3 pedigrees with bleeding and reduced platelet aggregation responses. To better define the phenotype associated with pathogenic RASGRP2 variants, we compared high-throughput sequencing and phenotype data from 2042 cases in pedigrees with unexplained bleeding or platelet disorders to data from 5422 controls. Eleven cases harbored 11 different, previously unreported RASGRP2 variants that were biallelic and likely pathogenic. The variants included 5 high-impact variants predicted to prevent CalDAG-GEFI expression and 6 missense variants affecting the CalDAG-GEFI CDC25 domain, which mediates Rap1 activation during platelet inside-out αIIbβ3 signaling. Cases with biallelic RASGRP2 variants had abnormal mucocutaneous, surgical, and dental bleeding from childhood, requiring ≥1 blood or platelet transfusion in 78% of cases. Platelets displayed reduced aggregation in response to adenosine 5'-diphosphate and epinephrine, but variable aggregation defects with other agonists. There were no other consistent clinical or laboratory features. These data enable definition of human CalDAG-GEFI deficiency as a nonsyndromic, recessive PFD associated with a moderate or severe bleeding phenotype and complex defects in platelet aggregation

Grey wolf genomic history reveals a dual ancestry of dogs

The grey wolf (Canis lupus) was the first species to give rise to a domestic population, and they remained widespread throughout the last Ice Age when many other large mammal species went extinct. Little is known, however, about the history and possible extinction of past wolf populations or when and where the wolf progenitors of the present-day dog lineage (Canisfamiliaris) lived(1-8). Here we analysed 72 ancient wolf genomes spanning the last 100,000 years from Europe, Siberia and North America. We found that wolf populations were highly connected throughout the Late Pleistocene, with levels of differentiation an order of magnitude lower than they are today. This population connectivity allowed us to detect natural selection across the time series, including rapid fixation of mutations in the gene IFT8840,000-30,000 years ago. We show that dogs are overall more closely related to ancient wolves from eastern Eurasia than to those from western Eurasia, suggesting a domestication process in the east. However, we also found that dogs in the Near East and Africa derive up to half of their ancestry from a distinct population related to modern southwest Eurasian wolves, reflecting either an independent domestication process or admixture from local wolves. None of the analysed ancient wolf genomes is a direct match for either of these dog ancestries, meaning that the exact progenitor populations remain to be located.Peer reviewe

Comprehensive Rare Variant Analysis via Whole-Genome Sequencing to Determine the Molecular Pathology of Inherited Retinal Disease

Inherited retinal disease is a common cause of visual impairment and represents a highly heterogeneous group of conditions. Here, we present findings from a cohort of 722 individuals with inherited retinal disease, who have had whole-genome sequencing (n = 605), whole-exome sequencing (n = 72), or both (n = 45) performed, as part of the NIHR-BioResource Rare Diseases research study. We identified pathogenic variants (single-nucleotide variants, indels, or structural variants) for 404/722 (56%) individuals. Whole-genome sequencing gives unprecedented power to detect three categories of pathogenic variants in particular: structural variants, variants in GC-rich regions, which have significantly improved coverage compared to whole-exome sequencing, and variants in non-coding regulatory regions. In addition to previously reported pathogenic regulatory variants, we have identified a previously unreported pathogenic intronic variant in $\textit{CHM}$ in two males with choroideremia. We have also identified 19 genes not previously known to be associated with inherited retinal disease, which harbor biallelic predicted protein-truncating variants in unsolved cases. Whole-genome sequencing is an increasingly important comprehensive method with which to investigate the genetic causes of inherited retinal disease.This work was supported by The National Institute for Health Research England (NIHR) for the NIHR BioResource – Rare Diseases project (grant number RG65966). The Moorfields Eye Hospital cohort of patients and clinical and imaging data were ascertained and collected with the support of grants from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital, National Health Service Foundation Trust, and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, Moorfields Eye Hospital Special Trustees, Moorfields Eye Charity, the Foundation Fighting Blindness (USA), and Retinitis Pigmentosa Fighting Blindness. M.M. is a recipient of an FFB Career Development Award. E.M. is supported by UCLH/UCL NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. F.L.R. and D.G. are supported by Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre

Phenotypic Characterization of EIF2AK4 Mutation Carriers in a Large Cohort of Patients Diagnosed Clinically With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease with an emerging genetic basis. Heterozygous mutations in the gene encoding the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2) are the commonest genetic cause of PAH, whereas biallelic mutations in the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 alpha kinase 4 gene (EIF2AK4) are described in pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Here, we determine the frequency of these mutations and define the genotype-phenotype characteristics in a large cohort of patients diagnosed clinically with PAH. METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing was performed on DNA from patients with idiopathic and heritable PAH and with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis recruited to the National Institute of Health Research BioResource-Rare Diseases study. Heterozygous variants in BMPR2 and biallelic EIF2AK4 variants with a minor allele frequency of <1:10 000 in control data sets and predicted to be deleterious (by combined annotation-dependent depletion, PolyPhen-2, and sorting intolerant from tolerant predictions) were identified as potentially causal. Phenotype data from the time of diagnosis were also captured. RESULTS: Eight hundred sixty-four patients with idiopathic or heritable PAH and 16 with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis were recruited. Mutations in BMPR2 were identified in 130 patients (14.8%). Biallelic mutations in EIF2AK4 were identified in 5 patients with a clinical diagnosis of pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Furthermore, 9 patients with a clinical diagnosis of PAH carried biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations. These patients had a reduced transfer coefficient for carbon monoxide (Kco; 33% [interquartile range, 30%-35%] predicted) and younger age at diagnosis (29 years; interquartile range, 23-38 years) and more interlobular septal thickening and mediastinal lymphadenopathy on computed tomography of the chest compared with patients with PAH without EIF2AK4 mutations. However, radiological assessment alone could not accurately identify biallelic EIF2AK4 mutation carriers. Patients with PAH with biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations had a shorter survival. CONCLUSIONS: Biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations are found in patients classified clinically as having idiopathic and heritable PAH. These patients cannot be identified reliably by computed tomography, but a low Kco and a young age at diagnosis suggests the underlying molecular diagnosis. Genetic testing can identify these misclassified patients, allowing appropriate management and early referral for lung transplantation