Return times of hot and cold days via recurrences and extreme value theory

International audienceIn this paper we introduce a model evaluation and comparison metric based on the methodology introduced in Faranda et al (2013) to assess biases and their potential origins in a historical model simulation against long-term reanalysis. The metric is constructed by exploiting recent results of dynamical systems theory linking rare recurrences to the classical statistical theories of extreme events for time series. We compute rare recurrences for 100 years daily mean temperatures data obtained in a model with historical greenhouse forcing (the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, IPSL-CM5 model) and compare them with the same quantities obtained from two datasets of reanalysis (20 Century Reanalysis and ERA 20C). The period chosen for the comparison is 1900-2000 and the focus is on the European region. We show that with respect to the traditional approaches, the recurrence technique is sensitive to the change in the size of the selection window of extremes due to the conditions imposed by the dynamics. Eventually, we study the regions which show robust biases with respect to all the techniques investigatin

North Atlantic circulation regimes and heat transport by synoptic eddies

Meridional transport of heat by transient atmospheric eddies is a key component of the energy budget of the middle and high latitude regions. The heat flux at relevant frequencies is also part of a dynamical interaction between eddies and mean flow. In this study we investigate how the poleward heat flux by high frequency atmospheric transient eddies is modulated by North Atlantic weather regimes in reanalysis data. Circulation regimes are estimated via a clustering method, a jet latitude index and a blocking index. Heat transport is defined as advection of moist static energy. The focus of the analysis is on synoptic frequencies but results for slightly longer time scales are reported. Results show that the synoptic eddy heat flux is substantially modulated by mid-latitude weather regimes on a regional scale in midlatitude and polar regions. On a zonal mean sense, the phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation do not change significantly the high latitude synoptic heat flux, whereas Scandinavian blocking and Atlantic Ridge are associated with an intensification. A close relationship between high (mid) latitude heat flux and Atlantic jet speed (latitude) is found. The relationship between extreme events of synoptic heat flux and circulation regimes is also assessed and reveals contrasting behaviours in polar regions. The perspective that emerges complements the traditional view of the interaction between synoptic eddies and the extra-tropical flow and reveals relationships with the high latitude climate

Intramedullary nailing as osteosynthesis technique for the fibula in total ankle arthroplasty via lateral approach

Objective: To describe a variation in the final osteosynthesis technique for total ankle replacement (TAR) implantation through lateral approach. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a series of cases dated between January 2022 and May 2023 in which intramedullary nailing was used as the osteosynthesis technique for the fibula during TAR implantation via lateral approach. Results: In all cases, skin scarring and soft tissue recovery to baseline were achieved in one and a half month to three months. Consolidation of the fibula occurred at an average of three months. No material was removed in any of the cases to date. Finally, patients were satisfied, resuming their previous activities. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this study is the first to investigate a modification of the osteosynthesis technique in the lateral approach to TAR. We believe the intramedullary nail for the fibula may be a useful tool to prevent soft tissue complications, requiring prospective and comparative studies to evaluate its efficacy. Level of Evidence IV; Therapeutic Studies; Case Series

Estudio comparativo de la nitrocarburación de los aceros AISI 4340 y AISI 347 mediante el proceso Tenifer-QPQ®

[Resumen]: Este trabajo estudia las diferencias microestructurales y tribológicas de las capas formadas durante la nitrocarburación ferrítica del acero aleado AISI 4340 y la nitrocarburación austenítica del acero inoxidable estabilizado AISI 347. Las muestras se sometieron a distintos tiempos de inmersión en un baño de nitrocar-buración (60, 75, 90, 105 y 120 min) a 580 ºC. Posteriormente se sometieron a un proceso de oxidación a 480 ºC para formar una capa de Fe3O4. Los estudios de la microestructura de la capa nitrocarburada se realizaron por microscopía electrónica de barrido (SEM), espectroscopía de dispersión de energías (EDS) y difracción de rayos X (XRD). Se estudió el desgaste y el coeficiente de fricción de las muestras nitrocarburadas y las muestras no tratadas mediante el ensayo pink-on disk. Los resultados muestran tres zonas bien diferenciadas en el acero AISI 4340: una capa de óxidos externa, una capa blanca o de combinación y zona de difusión. Sin embargo, no se detectó la presencia de la capa de combinación en el acero AISI 347. En ambos aceros, el coeficiente específico de desgaste (k) de las muestras nitrocarburadas fue aproximadamente treinta veces menor que el de las muestras de referencia.[Abstract]: Comparative study of AISI 4340 and AISI 347 nitrocarburizing by Tenifer-QPQ® process. This paper studies the microstructural and tribological differences of layers formed during the ferritic nitrocarbu-rizing of AISI 4340 alloy steel and AISI 347 stabilized stainless steel. The samples were exposed to different times of immersion in a nitrocarburizing bath (60, 75, 90, 105 and 120 min) at 580 °C. Subsequently, they were subjected to an oxidation process at 480 °C in order to form a Fe3O4 layer. Surface microstructural studies were carried out by SEM-EDS and x-ray diffraction (XRD). Wear and friction coefficient of nitrocarburized samples and non-treated samples were studied by pin-on-disk test. The results show two well-differentiated zones in AISI 4340 steel: an outer oxides layer, a white layer or compound layer and a diffusion zone. However, the compound layer was not found in AISI 347 steel. In both steels, the specific wear coefficient (k) of nitrocarburated samples is about thirty times lower than the reference samples

Creación e implementación de programa institucional de farmacovigilancia a IPS

La farmacovigilancia es un procedimiento que permite a las entidades prestadoras de servicios de salud, comercializadoras de medicamentos analizar los riesgos y los beneficios del consumo tanto fármacos como Fito terapéuticos. Reviste suma importancia ya que les ayuda a prevenir posibles intoxicaciones, e interacciones adversas a los medicamentos o incluso la muerte. Es un compromiso de todos; donde las instituciones provean la información necesaria y los usuarios tomen en serio el papel de aceptar las indicaciones del profesional de la salud y no depender de las recomendaciones populares, que los puede llevar a complicar su salud por consecuencia de la automedicación. La siguiente propuesta que se quiere poner en práctica es un programa institucional de farmacovigilancia en una IPS publica de baja complejidad, ya que la institución no cuenta con este programa el cual le permite resolver todos los inconvenientes con los (PRM) problemas relacionados con los medicamentos ya que pueden poner en peligro a los pacientes.Pharmacovigilance is a procedure that allows entities that provide health services and drug dealers to analyze the risks and benefits of consuming both drugs and phytotherapeutics. It is extremely important as it helps prevent possible poisoning, and adverse drug interactions or even death. It is a commitment of all; where institutions provide the necessary information and users take seriously the role of accepting the indications of the health professional and not depending on popular recommendations, which can lead them to complicate their health as a consequence of self-medication. The next proposal to be put into practice is an institutional pharmacovigilance program in a public IPS of low complexity, since the institution does not have this program which allows it to solve all the inconveniences with (PRM) problems related to medicines. as they may endanger patients

Antifungal Activities of Essential Oils from Protium ovatum Engl. Against Malassezia furfur and Candida Species

Fungal opportunistic infections have increased in recent decades due to the increase in the immunosuppressed patients and the indiscriminate use of antifungals. In Brazil, a country with the greatest biodiversity in the world, studies that seek new antifungals from natural sources have been stimulated. Protium ovatum Engl., belongs to the Burseraceae family and is a shrub tree found mainly in Brazil, in the Cerrado biome, and has medicinal, food and aromatic uses. This study aims to investigate the chemical composition and the anti-Malassezia furfur and anticandidal activities of essential oils (EOs) from Protium ovatum ripe fruit (RF-EO) and unripe fruit (UF-EO). The EOs antifungal activities were determined by microdilution broth methodology. GC-FID and GC-MS analyses showed that limonene, α-pinene and myrcene were the major components of both EOs. MIC values of RF-EO and UF-EO against M. furfur were 375 and 1500 µg/mL, respectively. RF-EO exhibited MIC values between 62.5 and 250 µg/mL while UF-EO was slightly active (> 1000 µg/mL) against Candida species. In addition, RF-EO showed antibiofilm activity against Candida species and was not toxic to C. elegans larvae. This study suggests that EOs from P. ovatum could be an alternative therapeutic option for infectious diseases caused by M. furfur and Candida species

Evaluation of demineralized lignin and lignin-phenolic resin blends to produce biocoke suitable for blast furnace operation

Metallurgical coke makers could reduce carbon emissions and material costs by introducing waste lignin in coke oven charges. Two approaches have been studied here to increase the use of lignin in the preparation of metallurgical coke: lignin demineralization with H2SO4 and lignin blending with a low rank coal using phenolic resin as binder. The biocoke obtained after carbonization at 1000 °C from the hydrochar of demineralized lignin (350 °C, 6 h, biomass/water = 0.5 wt/wt) had much higher reactivity than the coke obtained from the low rank coking coal, proving that demineralization of lignin prior hydrothermal conversion is not a valid route for biocoke making. In the other approach, it was found that blends containing 70 wt% low rank coal, 24 wt% torrefied lignin (before or after demineralization) and 6 wt% phenolic resin produced biocokes with suitable mechanical strength for handling but higher reactivity than the coke obtained from the low rank coking coal alone. The microporous surface areas of the biocokes studied did not correlate with their reactivity values

Was the cold European winter 2009-2010 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study

An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter 2009-2010 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on a large HadGEM3-A ensemble and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5 % quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of 2/3. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5 % quantile in many regions of Europe. Both methods show that the probability of experiencing a winter as cold as 2009-2010 has been reduced by approximately a factor of two due to anthropogenic changes. The method based on HadGEM3-A ensembles gives somewhat larger changes than the surrogate method because of differences in the definition of the unperturbed climate. The results are based on two diagnostics: the coldest day in winter and the largest continuous area with temperatures colder than twice the local standard deviation. The results are not sensitive to the choice of bias correction except in the mountainous regions. Previous results regarding the behavior of the measures of the changed probability have been extended. The counter-intuitive behavior for heavy-tailed distributions is found to hold for a range of measures and for events that become more rare in a changed climate

Consumo de Antibióticos y su Relación con el Desarrollo de Anemia Hemolítica Autoinmune

Autoimmune hemolytic anemia is characterized as an immune disorder in which there is the presence of antibodies directed against antigens present in the erythrocyte membrane, resulting in a decrease in the half-life or destruction of red blood cells. According to its epidemiology, it can occur at any age and its causes can be varied, and even its association with the consumption of different drugs such as antibiotics, especially penicillins and cephalosporins, although it is rare, it is of great importance due to the impact on quality. of the patient's life. Therefore, we carried out a bibliographic search of articles in English and Spanish in different databases, resulting in different case reports that reveal the relationship in the development of autoimmune hemolytic anemia as a consequence of the consumption of antibiotics.La anemia hemolítica autoinmune se caracteriza por ser un trastorno de carácter inmunitario en el cual se da la presencia de anticuerpos dirigidos contra antígenos presentes en la membrana eritrocitaria dando como consecuencia la disminución de la vida media o destrucción de los hematíes. Según su epidemiología, puede presentarse a cualquier edad y sus causas pueden ser variadas, e incluso su asociación con el consumo de diferentes fármacos como los antibióticos, especialmente penicilinas y cefalosporinas, aunque es poco frecuente es de gran importancia debido a la afectación de la calidad de vida del paciente. Por ende, realizamos una búsqueda bibliográfica de artículos en inglés y español en diferentes bases de datos dando como resultado diferentes reportes de casos que nos dan a conocer la relación en el desarrollo de anemia hemolítica autoinmune como consecuencia del consumo de antibióticos