The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience

Eight years have passed since the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The SPF asks a panel of approximately 75 forecasters located in the European Union (EU) for their short- to longer-term expectations for macroeconomic variables such as euro area inflation, growth and unemployment. This paper provides an initial assessment of the information content of this survey. First, we consider shorter-term (i.e., one- and two-year ahead rolling horizon) forecasts. The analysis suggests that, over the sample period, in common with other private and institutional forecasters, the SPF systematically under-forecast inflation but that there is less evidence of such systematic errors for GDP and unemployment forecasts. However, these findings, which generally hold regardless of whether one considers the aggregate SPF panel or individual responses, should be interpreted with caution given the relatively short sample period available for the analysis. Second, we consider SPF respondents’ assessment of forecast uncertainty using information from heir probability distributions. The results suggest that, particularly at the individual level, SPF respondents do not seem to fully capture the overall level of macroeconomic uncertainty. Moreover, even at the aggregate level, a more sophisticated evaluation of the SPF density forecasts using the probability integral transform largely confirms this assessment. Lastly, we consider longer-term macroeconomic expectations from the SPF, where, as expectations cannot yet be assessed against so few actual realisations, we provide a mainly qualitative assessment. With regard to inflation, the study suggests that the ECB has been successful at anchoring longterm expectations at rates consistent with its primary objective to ensure price stability over the medium term. Long-term GDP expectations – which should provide an indication of the private sector’s assessment of potential growth – have declined over the sample period and the balance of risks reported by respondents has generally been skewed to the downside.

Influence of chemical activation of a 35% hydrogen peroxide bleaching gel on its penetration and efficacy--in vitro study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of chemical activation of hydrogen peroxide (HP) gel on colour changes and penetration through the tooth structure. METHODS: One hundred and four bovine incisors were used. One dentine (CD) disc and one enamel-dentine (ED) disc were prepared from each tooth. They were positioned over artificial pulpal chambers and the bleaching was performed with an experimental 35% HP gel. Two control and six experimental groups were prepared. In the positive control group (PC) no chemical activator was used. In the negative control group (NC) the specimens did not receive any bleaching. Each experimental group received a different chemical activator (manganese gluconate-MG; manganese chlorite-MC; ferrous sulphate-FS; ferrous chlorite-FC; and mulberries root extract-MRE). After the bleaching procedure a sample of solution was collected from the artificial pulpal chamber and the HP concentration was measured. The data were analysed using ANOVA, Tukey's, and Dunnett's tests. RESULTS: The groups MG and FS showed a significantly lower penetration of HP than the PC group. For the parameter Delta E, all the groups, with the exception of the group MRE, showed a significantly higher means in relation to the PC group in ED colour. For dentine colour, just the groups MG and FS had significant differences in relation to PC. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of MG and FS decreases the penetration of HP. The chemical activation using metal salts tested was effective in increasing the bleaching effect

Neuronal Migration and Ventral Subtype Identity in the Telencephalon Depend on SOX1

Little is known about the molecular mechanisms and intrinsic factors that are responsible for the emergence of neuronal subtype identity. Several transcription factors that are expressed mainly in precursors of the ventral telencephalon have been shown to control neuronal specification, but it has been unclear whether subtype identity is also specified in these precursors, or if this happens in postmitotic neurons, and whether it involves the same or different factors. SOX1, an HMG box transcription factor, is expressed widely in neural precursors along with the two other SOXB1 subfamily members, SOX2 and SOX3, and all three have been implicated in neurogenesis. SOX1 is also uniquely expressed at a high level in the majority of telencephalic neurons that constitute the ventral striatum (VS). These neurons are missing in Sox1-null mutant mice. In the present study, we have addressed the requirement for SOX1 at a cellular level, revealing both the nature and timing of the defect. By generating a novel Sox1-null allele expressing β-galactosidase, we found that the VS precursors and their early neuronal differentiation are unaffected in the absence of SOX1, but the prospective neurons fail to migrate to their appropriate position. Furthermore, the migration of non-Sox1-expressing VS neurons (such as those expressing Pax6) was also affected in the absence of SOX1, suggesting that Sox1-expressing neurons play a role in structuring the area of the VS. To test whether SOX1 is required in postmitotic cells for the emergence of VS neuronal identity, we generated mice in which Sox1 expression was directed to all ventral telencephalic precursors, but to only a very few VS neurons. These mice again lacked most of the VS, indicating that SOX1 expression in precursors is not sufficient for VS development. Conversely, the few neurons in which Sox1 expression was maintained were able to migrate to the VS. In conclusion, Sox1 expression in precursors is not sufficient for VS neuronal identity and migration, but this is accomplished in postmitotic cells, which require the continued presence of SOX1. Our data also suggest that other SOXB1 members showing expression in specific neuronal populations are likely to play continuous roles from the establishment of precursors to their final differentiation

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Optimal incentives with state-dependent preferences

Abstract In both experimental and natural settings incentives sometimes under-perform, generating smaller effects on the targeted behaviors than would be predicted for entirely self-regarding agents. A parsimonious explanation is that incentives that appeal to self-regarding economic motives may crowd out non-economic motives such as altruism, reciprocity, intrinsic motivation, ethical values and other social preferences, leading to disappointing and sometimes even counter-productive incentive effects. We present evidence from behavioral experiments that crowding may take two forms: categorical (the effect on preferences depends only on the presence or absence of the incentive) or marginal (the effect depends on the extent of the incentive). We extend an earlier contribution (Bowles and Hwang, 2008) to include categorical crowding, thus providing a more general framework for the study of optimal incentives and as a result, an expanded range of situations for which the sophisticated planner will (surprisingly) make greater use of incentives when incentives crowd out social preferences than when motivational crowding is absent

Oncoplastic breast consortium recommendations for mastectomy and whole breast reconstruction in the setting of post-mastectomy radiation therapy

Aim: Demand for nipple-and skin-sparing mastectomy (NSM/SSM) with immediate breast reconstruction (BR) has increased at the same time as indications for post-mastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) have broadened. The aim of the Oncoplastic Breast Consortium initiative was to address relevant questions arising with this clinically challenging scenario. Methods: A large global panel of oncologic, oncoplastic and reconstructive breast surgeons, patient advocates and radiation oncologists developed recommendations for clinical practice in an iterative process based on the principles of Delphi methodology. Results: The panel agreed that surgical technique for NSM/SSM should not be formally modified when PMRT is planned with preference for autologous over implant-based BR due to lower risk of long-term complications and support for immediate and delayed-immediate reconstructive approaches. Nevertheless, it was strongly believed that PMRT is not an absolute contraindication for implant-based or other types of BR, but no specific recom-mendations regarding implant positioning, use of mesh or timing were made due to absence of high-quality evidence. The panel endorsed use of patient-reported outcomes in clinical practice. It was acknowledged that the shape and size of reconstructed breasts can hinder radiotherapy planning and attention to details of PMRT techniques is important in determining aesthetic outcomes after immediate BR. Conclusions: The panel endorsed the need for prospective, ideally randomised phase III studies and for surgical and radiation oncology teams to work together for determination of optimal sequencing and techniques for PMRT for each patient in the context of BRPeer reviewe

Enabling planetary science across light-years. Ariel Definition Study Report

Ariel, the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, was adopted as the fourth medium-class mission in ESA's Cosmic Vision programme to be launched in 2029. During its 4-year mission, Ariel will study what exoplanets are made of, how they formed and how they evolve, by surveying a diverse sample of about 1000 extrasolar planets, simultaneously in visible and infrared wavelengths. It is the first mission dedicated to measuring the chemical composition and thermal structures of hundreds of transiting exoplanets, enabling planetary science far beyond the boundaries of the Solar System. The payload consists of an off-axis Cassegrain telescope (primary mirror 1100 mm x 730 mm ellipse) and two separate instruments (FGS and AIRS) covering simultaneously 0.5-7.8 micron spectral range. The satellite is best placed into an L2 orbit to maximise the thermal stability and the field of regard. The payload module is passively cooled via a series of V-Groove radiators; the detectors for the AIRS are the only items that require active cooling via an active Ne JT cooler. The Ariel payload is developed by a consortium of more than 50 institutes from 16 ESA countries, which include the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, and a NASA contribution