Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006–2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data

Does Charge Carrier Dimensionality Increase in Mixed-Valence Salts of Tetrathiafulvalene-Terminated Dendrimers?

In four new dendrimers terminated by 12 electroactive tetrathiafulvalenyl substituents, the tridimensional character of the inter- and intradendrimeric charge and electron transfer, and hence of the electroconductivity, is evidenced by examination of the electronic spectra of their corresponding neutral state and cation radical, dication, and mixed-valence salts, including a closed-shell anion

Fasciola and fasciolosis in ruminants in Europe: Identifying research needs

18 páginas, 1 figura, 2 tablas.Fasciola hepatica is a trematode parasite with a global distribution, which is responsible for considerable disease and production losses in a range of food producing species. It is also identified by WHO as a re-emerging neglected tropical disease associated with endemic and epidemic outbreaks of disease in human populations. In Europe, F. hepatica is mostly associated with disease in sheep, cattle and goats. This study reviews the most recent advances in our understanding of the transmission, diagnosis, epidemiology and the economic impact of fasciolosis. We also focus on the impact of the spread of resistance to anthelmintics used to control F. hepatica and consider how vaccines might be developed and applied in the context of the immune-modulation driven by the parasite. Several major research gaps are identified which, when addressed, will contribute to providing focussed and where possible, bespoke, advice for farmers on how to integrate stock management and diagnosis with vaccination and/or targeted treatment to more effectively control the parasite in the face of increasing the prevalence of infection and spread of anthelmintic resistance that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change.All authors are members of the Livestock Helminth Research Alliance (LiHRA), whose vision is to improve the health, wealth and productivity of European livestock by providing sustainable helminth control options. This review was commissioned by DISCONTOOLS (www.discontools.eu) as part of the process of identifying research gaps which impinge on effective and sustainable control of fasciolosis in food producing animals in Europe. DJLW, JC, LR, CC, JPA, AMM all received funding from the European Union through the following awards: FPVI‐FOOD‐CT‐200X‐023025‐DELIVER; FPVII‐KBBE‐2011‐5‐288975‐GLOWORM; FPVII‐KBBE‐2010‐4‐265862‐PARAVAC; H2020‐635408‐PARAGONE. DJLW, JEH, NJB received funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through awards: BB/K015591/1 and BBI002480/1, and RJF was supported by BBSRC award BB/M018520/1. MMV was funded by the Spanish “Ramón y Cajal” Programme of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (RYC‐2015‐18368). CC was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at the University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or PHE.Peer reviewe

The effect of explicit convection on simulated malaria transmission across Africa

Malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa is sensitive to rainfall and temperature. Whilst different malaria modelling techniques and climate simulations have been used to predict malaria transmission risk, most of these studies use coarse-resolution climate models. In these models convection, atmospheric vertical motion driven by instability gradients and responsible for heavy rainfall, is parameterised. Over the past decade enhanced computational capabilities have enabled the simulation of high-resolution continental-scale climates with an explicit representation of convection. In this study we use two malaria models, the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) and Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI), to investigate the effect of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission. The concluded impact of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen malaria model and local climatic conditions. For instance, in the East African highlands, cooler temperatures when explicitly representing convection decreases LMM-predicted malaria transmission risk by approximately 55%, but has a negligible effect in VECTRI simulations. Even though explicitly representing convection improves rainfall characteristics, concluding that explicit convection improves simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen metric and malaria model. For example, whilst we conclude improvements of 45% and 23% in root mean squared differences of the annual-mean reproduction number and entomological inoculation rate for VECTRI and the LMM respectively, bias-correcting mean climate conditions minimises these improvements. The projected impact of anthropogenic climate change on malaria incidence is also sensitive to the chosen malaria model and representation of convection. The LMM is relatively insensitive to future changes in precipitation intensity, whilst VECTRI predicts increased risk across the Sahel due to enhanced rainfall. We postulate that VECTRI’s enhanced sensitivity to precipitation changes compared to the LMM is due to the inclusion of surface hydrology. Future research should continue assessing the effect of high-resolution climate modelling in impact-based forecasting

Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change

Planck pre-launch status : The Planck mission

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