Three Essays on Population and Historical Legacies: Fertility, Income Inequality and Natural Resources

This dissertation provides three essays on population dynamics from the perspective of historical legacies. The objective is to study how some current population dynamics can be influenced by past events, some of them from a very long-term perspective. The dominant theories and empirical work on population dynamics usually consider current or proximate determinants generally observed from the 20th century onwards. However, there are certain deeper determinants, rooted in history, that could have a powerful long-term influence. The first essay studies the global convergence of fertility. The fertility transition idea is traditionally linked to the global convergence of fertility towards a single equilibrium. In this essay I use a recently developed methodological approach that allows for multiple equilibrium analysis and club identification. It is used data on 190 countries and territories, over a period from 1960 to 2019. The findings in this essay do not support global fertility convergence. Instead, a number of ‘convergence clubs’ emerges from the data. These findings are discussed in the light of various demographic theories, proposing that fertility trends in contemporary societies cannot be understood without taking into account the interplay between continuities and discontinuities rooted of historical legacies. The second essay studies the link between population, extractive institutions, and income inequality for a particular historical period, from which long-term legacies could have emerged. Inequality in Latin America has been large, widespread and persistent. For some scholars, its origin dates back to the colonial period, when Europeans established extractive institutions that have lasted until the present. However, the analysis provided in this essay suggests that income inequality was already very high in the days of the Aztec Empire, so its roots lie in pre-Hispanic institutions. In 2021, it will be five hundred years since Tenochtitlan fell by the Spanish troops in alliance with several peoples who rose up against the Aztec Empire. However, little is known about the conditions of inequality and extraction prior to the arrival of Europeans. Indeed, such conditions might explain the imperial fall. It is analyzed income inequality in the 38 provinces of the Aztec Empire, showing how highly extractive conditions explain the ease with which the Spaniards promoted alliances with certain indigenous peoples to defeat the Aztecs. The same previous extractive conditions may have made it easier for Europeans to adapt the Aztec institutions for their own benefit during the early colonial period. It is concluded that colonialism in Latin America did not create economic inequality, it only exacerbated it. The last essay explores the link between current population dynamics and the environment given by the presence of natural resources from a very long-term perspective. The influential literature on the “curse of natural resources” highlights that resource-rich countries, under certain circumstances, have poorer economic and political outcomes than other countries. The third essay proposes that the presence of non-renewable natural resources also has important implications and long-term effects for fertility and other social dynamics related to family change. In a country-level analysis, this work first documents how the presence of natural resources is highly associated with higher fertility rates across the world. Second, the long-term effects and persistence of this “social curse” are highlighted, by providing evidence at the subnational level that the presence of historic coal mines, dating back to the Industrial Revolution in Europe, can be influencing on current fertility behaviors and other outcomes that are determinants of social change

Forward light scatter and visual acuity before and after intrastromal corneal ring segment implantation at different stages of keratoconus

Purpose: to assess forward light scatter (stray light) before and after intrastromal corneal ring segment (ICRS) implantation at different stages of keratoconus and to examine correlation between postoperative stray light and visual acuity (VA). Methods: in 27 eyes of 27 subjects with keratoconus, stray light was determined using the compensation comparison technique before and 6 months after ICRS implantation. Monocular corrected distance VA (CDVA) was measured using a high-contrast logMAR letter chart. Corneal higher-order aberrations (HOAs), contrast sensitivity (CS) and minimum corneal thickness (CT) were also measured. Results: mean CDVA was 0.42 ± 0.28 preoperatively and 0.24 ± 0.15 logMAR postoperatively (p 0.05) for stage I, 0.13 ± 0.14 (p = 0.013) for stage II and 0.18 ± 0.21 (p = 0.023) for stage III. Significant positive correlation (r = 0.47, p = 0.01) was detected between postoperative stray light and postoperative CDVA such that as stray light increased, CDVA worsened (higher logMAR values). Postoperative stray light was neither associated with HOAs, CS nor minimum CT. Conclusions: stray light values in these patients with keratoconus were higher than normal preoperatively. In eyes with stage II and III keratoconus, stray light increased 6 months after ICRS placement. Higher postoperative stray light was correlated with a worse visual acuity outcome

Permian-Triassic Rifting Stage

International audienceThe Permian-Triassic rifting represents the first of the two Mesozoic rifting stages recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. Its first phases of development started during the Early Permian, and were linked to the beginning of the break-up of Pangea, the large, unique and rheologically unstable supercontinent that mainly resulted from the collision of Gondwana and Laurussia. This chapter analyzes this first rifting stage in Iberia in two separate phases, an initial or tectonic phase, and a later mature phase. This analysis focuses on the main Permian-Triassic basins of the Iberian Peninsula: the Pyrenean, Iberian, Catalan, Ebro and Betic basins, as well as the basins located in the present-day Balearic Islands. In order to achieve a better understanding of the analyses of these basins, a multidisciplinary approach has been carried out by 48 researchers, including studies of tectonics, sedimentology, magmatism, mineralogy, geochemistry and paleontology

Performance of the ALICE Electromagnetic Calorimeter

International audienceThe performance of the electromagnetic calorimeter of theALICE experiment during operation in 2010–2018 at the Large HadronCollider is presented. After a short introduction into the design,readout, and trigger capabilities of the detector, the proceduresfor data taking, reconstruction, and validation are explained. Themethods used for the calibration and various derived corrections arepresented in detail. Subsequently, the capabilities of thecalorimeter to reconstruct and measure photons, light mesons,electrons and jets are discussed. The performance of thecalorimeter is illustrated mainly with data obtained with test beamsat the Proton Synchrotron and Super Proton Synchrotron or inproton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV, and compared tosimulations

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit