Forecasting Economic Activity Using the Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications for New Zealand, Australia and the US

Inversion of the yield curve has come to be viewed as a leading recession indicator. Unsurprisingly, some recent instances of inversion have attracted attention from economic commentators and policymakers about possible impending recessions. Using a variety of time series models and recent innovations in econometric method, this paper conducts quasi-real-time forecasting exercises to investigate whether the predictive capability of the yield curve extends to forecasting economic activity in general and whether removing the term premium component from yields affects forecast accuracy. The empirical findings for the US, Australia, and New Zealand show that forecast performance is not improved either by augmenting simplistic models with information from the yield curve or by making such a decomposition of yields. Results from similar research exercises in previous work in the literature are mixed. The results of the present analysis suggest possible explanations that reconcile these conflicting results

Kac and New Determinants for Fractional Superconformal Algebras

We derive the Kac and new determinant formulae for an arbitrary (integer) level $K$ fractional superconformal algebra using the BRST cohomology techniques developed in conformal field theory. In particular, we reproduce the Kac determinants for the Virasoro ($K=1$) and superconformal ($K=2$) algebras. For $K\geq3$ there always exist modules where the Kac determinant factorizes into a product of more fundamental new determinants. Using our results for general $K$, we sketch the non-unitarity proof for the $SU(2)$ minimal series; as expected, the only unitary models are those already known from the coset construction. We apply the Kac determinant formulae for the spin-4/3 parafermion current algebra ({\em i.e.}, the $K=4$ fractional superconformal algebra) to the recently constructed three-dimensional flat Minkowski space-time representation of the spin-4/3 fractional superstring. We prove the no-ghost theorem for the space-time bosonic sector of this theory; that is, its physical spectrum is free of negative-norm states.Comment: 33 pages, Revtex 3.0, Cornell preprint CLNS 93/124

Double Inflation in Supergravity and the Large Scale Structure

The cosmological implication of a double inflation model with hybrid + new inflations in supergravity is studied. The hybrid inflation drives an inflaton for new inflation close to the origin through supergravity effects and new inflation naturally occurs. If the total e-fold number of new inflation is smaller than $\sim 60$, both inflations produce cosmologically relevant density fluctuations. Both cluster abundances and galaxy distributions provide strong constraints on the parameters in the double inflation model assuming $\Omega_0=1$ standard cold dark matter scenario. The future satellite experiments to measure the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background will make a precise determination of the model parameters possible.Comment: 19 pages (RevTeX file

Spontaneous Creation of Inflationary Universes and the Cosmic Landscape

We study some gravitational instanton solutions that offer a natural realization of the spontaneous creation of inflationary universes in the brane world context in string theory. Decoherence due to couplings of higher (perturbative) modes of the metric as well as matter fields modifies the Hartle-Hawking wavefunction for de Sitter space. Generalizing this new wavefunction to be used in string theory, we propose a principle in string theory that hopefully will lead us to the particular vacuum we live in, thus avoiding the anthropic principle. As an illustration of this idea, we give a phenomenological analysis of the probability of quantum tunneling to various stringy vacua. We find that the preferred tunneling is to an inflationary universe (like our early universe), not to a universe with a very small cosmological constant (i.e., like today's universe) and not to a 10-dimensional uncompactified de Sitter universe. Such preferred solutions are interesting as they offer a cosmological mechanism for the stabilization of extra dimensions during the inflationary epoch.Comment: 52 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Added discussion on supercritical string vacua, added reference

Is cosmology consistent?

We perform a detailed analysis of the latest CMB measurements (including BOOMERaNG, DASI, Maxima and CBI), both alone and jointly with other cosmological data sets involving, e.g., galaxy clustering and the Lyman Alpha Forest. We first address the question of whether the CMB data are internally consistent once calibration and beam uncertainties are taken into account, performing a series of statistical tests. With a few minor caveats, our answer is yes, and we compress all data into a single set of 24 bandpowers with associated covariance matrix and window functions. We then compute joint constraints on the 11 parameters of the ``standard'' adiabatic inflationary cosmological model. Out best fit model passes a series of physical consistency checks and agrees with essentially all currently available cosmological data. In addition to sharp constraints on the cosmic matter budget in good agreement with those of the BOOMERaNG, DASI and Maxima teams, we obtain a heaviest neutrino mass range 0.04-4.2 eV and the sharpest constraints to date on gravity waves which (together with preference for a slight red-tilt) favors ``small-field'' inflation models.Comment: Replaced to match accepted PRD version. 14 pages, 12 figs. Tiny changes due to smaller DASI & Maxima calibration errors. Expanded neutrino and tensor discussion, added refs, typos fixed. Combined CMB data, window and covariance matrix at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~max/consistent.html or from [email protected]

UV and EUV Instruments

We describe telescopes and instruments that were developed and used for astronomical research in the ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The wavelength ranges covered by these bands are not uniquely defined. We use the following convention here: The EUV and UV span the regions ~100-912 and 912-3000 Angstroem respectively. The limitation between both ranges is a natural choice, because the hydrogen Lyman absorption edge is located at 912 Angstroem. At smaller wavelengths, astronomical sources are strongly absorbed by the interstellar medium. It also marks a technical limit, because telescopes and instruments are of different design. In the EUV range, the technology is strongly related to that utilized in X-ray astronomy, while in the UV range the instruments in many cases have their roots in optical astronomy. We will, therefore, describe the UV and EUV instruments in appropriate conciseness and refer to the respective chapters of this volume for more technical details.Comment: To appear in: Landolt-Boernstein, New Series VI/4A, Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology; Instruments and Methods, ed. J.E. Truemper, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 201

Beccles triple post alignment, Beccles Marshes, Suffolk: excavation and palaeoenvironmental analysis of an Iron Age Wetland site

This paper describes the results of two seasons of excavation and associated palaeoenvironmental analyses of a wetland site on Beccles Marshes, Beccles, Suffolk. The site has been identified as a triple post alignment of oak timbers (0.6–2.0 m long), over 100 m in length, and 3–4 m wide, running north-west to south-east towards the River Waveney. It was constructed in a single phase which has been dated dendrochronologically to 75 BC, although discrete brushwood features identified as possible short trackways have been dated by radiocarbon to both before and after the alignment was built. It is unclear if the posts ever supported a superstructure but notches (‘halving lap joints’) in some of the posts appear to have held timbers to support the posts and/or aid in their insertion. In addition, fragments of both Iron Age and Romano-British pottery were recovered. A substantial assemblage of worked wooden remains appears to reflect the construction of the post row itself and perhaps the on-site clearance of floodplain vegetation. This assemblage also contains waste material derived from the reduction splitting of timbers larger than the posts of the alignment, but which have not been recovered from the site. Environmental analyses indicate that the current landscape context of the site with respect to the River Waveney is probably similar to that which pertained in prehistory. The coleoptera (beetle) record illustrates a series of changes in the on-site vegetation in the period before, during and after the main phase of human activity which may be related to a range of factors including floodplain hydrology and anthropogenic utilisation of Beccles Marshes. The possible form and function of the site is discussed in relation to the later prehistoric period in Suffolk.</jats:p

Comparison of depression and anxiety symptom networks in reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma in two samples of differing severity

Background: Reported trauma is associated with differences in the course and outcomes of depression and anxiety. However, no research has explored the association between reported trauma and patterns of clinically relevant symptoms of both depression and anxiety. Methods: We used network analysis to investigate associations between reported trauma and depression and anxiety symptom interactions in affected individuals from the Genetic Links to Anxiety and Depression (GLAD) Study (n = 17720), and population volunteers from the UK Biobank (n = 11120). Participants with current moderate symptoms of depression or anxiety were grouped into reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma. Networks of 16 depression and anxiety symptoms in the two groups were compared using the network comparison test. Results: In the GLAD Study, networks of reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma did not differ on any metric. In the UK Biobank, the symptom network of reporters had significantly greater density (7.80) than the network of non-reporters (7.05). Limitations: The data collected in the GLAD Study and the UK Biobank are self-reported with validated or semi-validated questionnaires. Conclusions: Reported lifetime trauma was associated with stronger interactions between symptoms of depression and anxiety in population volunteers. Differences between reporters and non-reporters may not be observed in individuals with severe depression and/or anxiety due to limited variance in the presentation of disorder

Search for displaced vertices arising from decays of new heavy particles in 7 TeV pp collisions at ATLAS

We present the results of a search for new, heavy particles that decay at a significant distance from their production point into a final state containing charged hadrons in association with a high-momentum muon. The search is conducted in a pp-collision data sample with a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and an integrated luminosity of 33 pb^-1 collected in 2010 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. Production of such particles is expected in various scenarios of physics beyond the standard model. We observe no signal and place limits on the production cross-section of supersymmetric particles in an R-parity-violating scenario as a function of the neutralino lifetime. Limits are presented for different squark and neutralino masses, enabling extension of the limits to a variety of other models.Comment: 8 pages plus author list (20 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version to appear in Physics Letters

Measurement of the polarisation of W bosons produced with large transverse momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

This paper describes an analysis of the angular distribution of W->enu and W->munu decays, using data from pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2010, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 35 pb^-1. Using the decay lepton transverse momentum and the missing transverse energy, the W decay angular distribution projected onto the transverse plane is obtained and analysed in terms of helicity fractions f0, fL and fR over two ranges of W transverse momentum (ptw): 35 < ptw < 50 GeV and ptw > 50 GeV. Good agreement is found with theoretical predictions. For ptw > 50 GeV, the values of f0 and fL-fR, averaged over charge and lepton flavour, are measured to be : f0 = 0.127 +/- 0.030 +/- 0.108 and fL-fR = 0.252 +/- 0.017 +/- 0.030, where the first uncertainties are statistical, and the second include all systematic effects.Comment: 19 pages plus author list (34 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, revised author list, matches European Journal of Physics C versio