A hierarchy of heuristic-based models of crowd dynamics

International audienceWe derive a hierarchy of kinetic and macroscopic models from a noisy variant of the heuristic behavioral Individual-Based Model of Moussaid et al, PNAS 2011, where the pedestrians are supposed to have constant speeds. This IBM supposes that the pedestrians seek the best compromise between navigation towards their target and collisions avoidance. We first propose a kinetic model for the probability distribution function of the pedestrians. Then, we derive fluid models and propose three different closure relations. The first two closures assume that the velocity distribution functions are either a Dirac delta or a von Mises-Fisher distribution respectively. The third closure results from a hydrodynamic limit associated to a Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium. We develop an analogy between this equilibrium and Nash equilibia in a game theoretic framework. In each case, we discuss the features of the models and their suitability for practical use

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

Background: We previously reported that impaired type I IFN activity, due to inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity or to autoantibodies against type I IFN, account for 15–20% of cases of life-threatening COVID-19 in unvaccinated patients. Therefore, the determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 remain to be identified in ~ 80% of cases. Methods: We report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and 1373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. Among the 928 patients tested for autoantibodies against type I IFN, a quarter (234) were positive and were excluded. Results: No gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7, with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI 1.5–528.7, P = 1.1 × 10−4) for biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR = 3.70[95%CI 1.3–8.2], P = 2.1 × 10−4). This enrichment was further strengthened by (1) adding the recently reported TYK2 and TLR7 COVID-19 loci, particularly under a recessive model (OR = 19.65[95%CI 2.1–2635.4], P = 3.4 × 10−3), and (2) considering as pLOF branchpoint variants with potentially strong impacts on splicing among the 15 loci (OR = 4.40[9%CI 2.3–8.4], P = 7.7 × 10−8). Finally, the patients with pLOF/bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD] = 43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P = 1.68 × 10−5). Conclusions: Rare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie life-threatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old