Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths

Longitudinal Imaging of the Ageing Mouse

Several non-invasive imaging techniques are used to investigate the effect of pathologies and treatments over time in mouse models. Each preclinical in vivo technique provides longitudinal and quantitative measurements of changes in tissues and organs, which are fundamental for the evaluation of alterations in phenotype due to pathologies, interventions and treatments. However, it is still unclear how these imaging modalities can be used to study ageing with mice models. Almost all age related pathologies in mice such as osteoporosis, arthritis, diabetes, cancer, thrombi, dementia, to name a few, can be imaged in vivo by at least one longitudinal imaging modality. These measurements are the basis for quantification of treatment effects in the development phase of a novel treatment prior to its clinical testing. Furthermore, the non-invasive nature of such investigations allows the assessment of different tissue and organ phenotypes in the same animal and over time, providing the opportunity to study the dysfunction of multiple tissues associated with the ageing process. This review paper aims to provide an overview of the applications of the most commonly used in vivo imaging modalities used in mouse studies: micro-computed-tomography, preclinical magnetic-resonance-imaging, preclinical positron-emission-tomography, preclinical single photon emission computed tomography, ultrasound, intravital microscopy, and whole body optical imaging

Low nicotine dependence and high self-efficacy can predict smoking cessation independent of the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : a three year follow up of a population-based study

Background: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and smoking cessation is the only intervention that slows disease progression. It is important to know whether current factors related to smoking and smoking cessation are different among subjects with and without COPD in order to support smoking cessation. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors related to smoking cessation and to compare characteristics and nicotine dependence among smokers with and without COPD. Methods: In 2005, 1614 subjects in a population-based longitudinal study of subjects with COPD and controls were examined. The Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) and motivation for smoking cessation were assessed for current smokers (n = 299 total, 194 with COPD). Data on smoking cessation were collected in a follow-up in 2008 (n = 240). Results: Smokers with COPD had more pack-years and respiratory symptoms than smokers without COPD, whereas higher FTND scores were associated with anxiety/depression and respiratory symptoms in both groups. Nineteen percent of the smokers had quit smoking by the follow-up 3 years later, and they had significantly lower FTND scores (2.54 vs. 3.75, p < 0.001) and higher self-efficacy scores (10.0 vs. 6.0, p = 0.020) at baseline than the sustained smokers. Smoking cessation was related to low FTND scores and high self-efficacy independent of the presence of COPD, respiratory symptoms, anxiety/depression, and heart disease. Conclusions: The FTND score and a simple visual analog scale for assessing self-efficacy seem to be valuable instruments for predicting smoking cessation over several years, independent of COPD, respiratory symptoms, presence of anxiety/depression, and heart disease

California Hospitals Serving Large Minority Populations Were More Likely Than Others To Employ Ambulance Diversion

We evaluate whether hospitals serving a higher proportion of minorities experience disproportionate emergency department crowding, as proxied by ambulance diversion. In 202 hospitals across California, the median number of annual diversion hours was 374. After controlling for hospital characteristics, hospitals at the tenth percentile of fraction of minority visitors were on diversion only seventy-five hours per year, compared with hospitals at the ninetieth percentile, with 306 annual diversion hours. Emergency department crowding disproportionately affects minorities, and may contribute to health disparities in these communities. These findings suggest that establishing more uniform criteria regulating diversion may be one step toward decreasing disparities in access to emergency care

Factors Associated With Short-Term Bounce-Back Admissions After Emergency Department Discharge

Study objectiveHospitalizations that occur shortly after emergency department (ED) discharge may reveal opportunities to improve ED or follow-up care. There currently is limited, population-level information about such events. We identify hospital- and visit-level predictors of bounce-back admissions, defined as 7-day unscheduled hospital admissions after ED discharge.MethodsUsing the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development files, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of adult (aged >18 years) ED visits resulting in discharge in 2007. Candidate predictors included index hospital structural characteristics such as ownership, teaching affiliation, trauma status, and index ED size, along with index visit patient characteristics of demographic information, day of service, against medical advice or eloped disposition, insurance, and ED primary discharge diagnosis. We fit a multivariable, hierarchic logistic regression to account for clustering of ED visits by hospitals.ResultsThe study cohort contained a total of 5,035,833 visits to 288 facilities in 2007. Bounce-back admission within 7 days occurred in 130,526 (2.6%) visits and was associated with Medicaid (odds ratio [OR] 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40 to 1.45) or Medicare insurance (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.50 to 1.55) and a disposition of leaving against medical advice or before the evaluation was complete (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.89 to 2.0). The 3 most common age-adjusted index ED discharge diagnoses associated with a bounce-back admission were chronic renal disease, not end stage (OR 3.3; 95% CI 2.8 to 3.8), end-stage renal disease (OR 2.9; 95% CI 2.4 to 3.6), and congestive heart failure (OR 2.5; 95% CI 2.3 to 2.6). Hospital characteristics associated with a higher bounce-back admission rate were for-profit status (OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3) and teaching affiliation (OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.3).ConclusionWe found 2.6% of discharged patients from California EDs to have a bounce-back admission within 7 days. We identified vulnerable populations, such as the very old and the use of Medicaid insurance, and chronic or end-stage renal disease as being especially at risk. Our findings suggest that quality improvement efforts focus on high-risk individuals and that the disposition plan of patients consider vulnerable populations