The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

For a quantitative assessment of debris flow risk, it is essential to consider not only the hazardous process itself but also to perform an analysis of its consequences. This should include the estimation of the expected monetary losses as the product of the hazard with a given magnitude and the vulnerability of the elements exposed. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and vulnerability is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. This study aims at developing physical vulnerability curves for debris flows through the use of a dynamic run-out model. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results can then be applied to consequence analyses and risk calculations. On 13 July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy). One of the largest debris flows events occurred in a village called Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. The Selvetta event was modelled with the FLO-2D program, an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The behaviour and run-out of the flow was reconstructed. The significance of calculated values of the flow depth, velocity, and pressure were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which was calculated as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Three different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow depth, impact pressure, and kinematic viscosity, respectively. A quantitative approach to estimate the vulnerability of an exposed element to a debris flow which can be independent of the temporal occurrence of the hazard event is presented

Дискурсивно-структурні особливості англомовних текстів описів товарів комерційних інтернет-сайтів

Статтю присвячено визначенню та вивченню дискурсивних та структурних особливостей англомовних текстів описів товарів, розміщених на комерційних сайтах. У дослідженні виділяються основні композиційні елементи та комунікативні блоки структури цього типу текстів, дається характеристика основних паралігвістичних засобів, які у них зустрічаються. Значну увагу також приділено аналізу дейктичних елементів у семантичній структурі електронного тексту.Статья посвящена определению и исследованию дискурсивных и структурных особенностей англоязычных текстов описаний товара, размещенных на коммерческих сайтах. В исследовании выделяются основные композиционные элементы и коммуникативные блоки структуры этого типа текстов, дается характеристика основных паралингвистических средств, встречающихся в них. Значительное внимание также уделено анализу дейктических элементов в семантической структуре электронного текста.The article deals with discursive and structural features of English-language text descriptions of commodity placed on commercial sites. Focus is made on the basic components and communicative blocks of such kinds of texts. The deictic elements in the structure of hypertext are analysed

Molecular architecture and activation of the insecticidal protein Vip3Aa from Bacillus thuringiensis

Bacillus thuringiensis Vip3 (Vegetative Insecticidal Protein 3) toxins are widely used in biotech crops to control Lepidopteran pests. These proteins are produced as inactive protoxins that need to be activated by midgut proteases to trigger cell death. However, little is known about their three-dimensional organization and activation mechanism at the molecular level. Here, we have determined the structures of the protoxin and the protease-activated state of Vip3Aa at 2.9 Å using cryo-electron microscopy. The reconstructions show that the protoxin assembles into a pyramid-shaped tetramer with the C-terminal domains exposed to the solvent and the N-terminal region folded into a spring-loaded apex that, after protease activation, drastically remodels into an extended needle by a mechanism akin to that of influenza haemagglutinin. These results provide the molecular basis for Vip3 activation and function, and serves as a strong foundation for the development of more efficient insecticidal proteins

Identification of debris flow initiation zones using topographic model and airborne laser scanning data

Empirical multivariate predictive models represent an important tool to estimate debris flow initiation areas. Most of the approaches used in modelling debris flows propagation and deposit phases required identifying release (starting point) area or source area. Initiation areas offer a good overview to point out where field investigation should be conducted to establish a detailed hazard map. These zones, usually, are arbitrarily chosen which affect the model outputs; hence, there is a need to have accurate and automated means of identifying the release area. In addition to this, the resolution of the terrain dataset also affects the results of the detection of source areas. In this study, airborne laser scanning (ALS) data was used because of its robustness in providing detailed terrain attributes at high resolution. Primary and secondary conditioning parameters were derived from digital elevation model (DEM) as input into the modelling process. Three models were executed at different spatial resolution scales: 5, 10 and 15 m, respectively. MARSpline multivariate data mining predictive approach was implemented using morphometric indices and topographical derived parameter as independent variables. A statistics validation was calculated to estimate the optimal pixel size, 1200 randomly sample data were generated from existing inventory data. Debris flows and no-debris flows were categorized, and the transform to continuous integer (1 and 0), respectively. To achieve this, the data set was divided into two, 70% (840) for the training dataset and 30% (360) for validation. The best model was selected based on the model performance using the generalized cross validation (GCV) and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve/area under curve (AUC) values. Conditioning parameters were numerically optimized to identify the arbitrarily maximum model basis function for eleven variables, using MARSplines analysis (algorithm). The three most influencing topographic parameters identified are topographic roughness index (TRI), slope angle, and specific catchment area (SCA) with the percentage values of participation in the model of 100, 93, and 86%, respectively. The chosen function appeared to describe the analysed correlation sufficiently well. Consequently, three stages of optimization were made to determine the optimized source areas is possible with 10 m pixel size, 200 maximum basis functions and 3 maximum interactions, resulting into 82% ROC train and 80% test, GCV 0.189 and 85% correlation coefficient. The result will be of great contribution to the advancement of a broad understanding of the dynamics of debris flows hazard and mitigations at regional level which; that is resourceful for comprehensive slope management for safe urban planning decision-making process and debris flow disaster management

Identification of debris flow initiation zones using topographic model and airborne laser scanning data

Empirical multivariate predictive models represent an important tool to estimate debris flow initiation areas. Most of the approaches used in modelling debris flows propagation and deposit phases required identifying release (starting point) area or source area. Initiation areas offer a good overview to point out where field investigation should be conducted to establish a detailed hazard map. These zones, usually, are arbitrarily chosen which affect the model outputs; hence, there is a need to have accurate and automated means of identifying the release area. In addition to this, the resolution of the terrain dataset also affects the results of the detection of source areas. In this study, airborne laser scanning (ALS) data was used because of its robustness in providing detailed terrain attributes at high resolution. Primary and secondary conditioning parameters were derived from digital elevation model (DEM) as input into the modelling process. Three models were executed at different spatial resolution scales: 5, 10 and 15 m, respectively. MARSpline multivariate data mining predictive approach was implemented using morphometric indices and topographical derived parameter as independent variables. A statistics validation was calculated to estimate the optimal pixel size, 1200 randomly sample data were generated from existing inventory data. Debris flows and no-debris flows were categorized, and the transform to continuous integer (1 and 0), respectively. To achieve this, the data set was divided into two, 70% (840) for the training dataset and 30% (360) for validation. The best model was selected based on the model performance using the generalized cross validation (GCV) and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve/area under curve (AUC) values. Conditioning parameters were numerically optimized to identify the arbitrarily maximum model basis function for eleven variables, using MARSplines analysis (algorithm). The three most influencing topographic parameters identified are topographic roughness index (TRI), slope angle, and specific catchment area (SCA) with the percentage values of participation in the model of 100, 93, and 86%, respectively. The chosen function appeared to describe the analysed correlation sufficiently well. Consequently, three stages of optimization were made to determine the optimized source areas is possible with 10 m pixel size, 200 maximum basis functions and 3 maximum interactions, resulting into 82% ROC train and 80% test, GCV 0.189 and 85% correlation coefficient. The result will be of great contribution to the advancement of a broad understanding of the dynamics of debris flows hazard and mitigations at regional level which; that is resourceful for comprehensive slope management for safe urban planning decision-making process and debris flow disaster management

Transancestral mapping and genetic load in systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with marked gender and ethnic disparities. We report a large transancestral association study of SLE using Immunochip genotype data from 27,574 individuals of European (EA), African (AA) and Hispanic Amerindian (HA) ancestry. We identify 58 distinct non-HLA regions in EA, 9 in AA and 16 in HA (B50% of these regions have multiple independent associations); these include 24 novel SLE regions (Po5 10 8), refined association signals in established regions, extended associations to additional ancestries, and a disentangled complex HLA multigenic effect. The risk allele count (genetic load) exhibits an accelerating pattern of SLE risk, leading us to posit a cumulative hit hypothesis for autoimmune disease. Comparing results across the three ancestries identifies both ancestry-dependent and ancestry-independent contributions to SLE risk. Our results are consistent with the unique and complex histories of the populations sampled, and collectively help clarify the genetic architecture and ethnic disparities in SL

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Cabbage and fermented vegetables : From death rate heterogeneity in countries to candidates for mitigation strategies of severe COVID-19

Large differences in COVID-19 death rates exist between countries and between regions of the same country. Some very low death rate countries such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, or the Balkans have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods. Although biases exist when examining ecological studies, fermented vegetables or cabbage have been associated with low death rates in European countries. SARS-CoV-2 binds to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). As a result of SARS-CoV-2 binding, ACE2 downregulation enhances the angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT(1)R) axis associated with oxidative stress. This leads to insulin resistance as well as lung and endothelial damage, two severe outcomes of COVID-19. The nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2) is the most potent antioxidant in humans and can block in particular the AT(1)R axis. Cabbage contains precursors of sulforaphane, the most active natural activator of Nrf2. Fermented vegetables contain many lactobacilli, which are also potent Nrf2 activators. Three examples are: kimchi in Korea, westernized foods, and the slum paradox. It is proposed that fermented cabbage is a proof-of-concept of dietary manipulations that may enhance Nrf2-associated antioxidant effects, helpful in mitigating COVID-19 severity.Peer reviewe

Nrf2-interacting nutrients and COVID-19 : time for research to develop adaptation strategies

There are large between- and within-country variations in COVID-19 death rates. Some very low death rate settings such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, the Balkans and Africa have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods whose intake is associated with the activation of the Nrf2 (Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2) anti-oxidant transcription factor. There are many Nrf2-interacting nutrients (berberine, curcumin, epigallocatechin gallate, genistein, quercetin, resveratrol, sulforaphane) that all act similarly to reduce insulin resistance, endothelial damage, lung injury and cytokine storm. They also act on the same mechanisms (mTOR: Mammalian target of rapamycin, PPAR gamma:Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, NF kappa B: Nuclear factor kappa B, ERK: Extracellular signal-regulated kinases and eIF2 alpha:Elongation initiation factor 2 alpha). They may as a result be important in mitigating the severity of COVID-19, acting through the endoplasmic reticulum stress or ACE-Angiotensin-II-AT(1)R axis (AT(1)R) pathway. Many Nrf2-interacting nutrients are also interacting with TRPA1 and/or TRPV1. Interestingly, geographical areas with very low COVID-19 mortality are those with the lowest prevalence of obesity (Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). It is tempting to propose that Nrf2-interacting foods and nutrients can re-balance insulin resistance and have a significant effect on COVID-19 severity. It is therefore possible that the intake of these foods may restore an optimal natural balance for the Nrf2 pathway and may be of interest in the mitigation of COVID-19 severity