Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study

Background Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). Interpretation If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Poor maternal health service utilization associated with incomplete vaccination among children aged 12-23 months in Ethiopia

Complete vaccination, meaning the administration of all doses in a vaccination regimen, is one of the most cost-effective interventions to reduce under-age-five-years mortality and morbidity. However, only a few studies have investigated the magnitude and predictors of incomplete vaccination. This study aimed to identify those factors associated with incomplete vaccination among children aged 12–23 months in Kutaber District, south Wollo zone, Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Kutaber District from August to September 2017. A total of 480 participants were selected using the stratified multi-stage sampling technique. A structured, pre-tested and interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. A logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with incomplete vaccination. The prevalence of incomplete vaccination in this population was found to be 7.7%. The factors home delivery (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 3.21), children from mothers with no history of Tetanus Toxoid (TT) vaccination (AOR = 5.26), living near the health post (AOR = 5.65), caregivers aged 19–26 years (AOR = 9.59), mothers/caregivers with no education (AOR = 3.71), and children from mothers with no Antenatal Care (ANC) follow-ups (AOR = 9.41) were found to be significantly associated with incomplete vaccination. The rate of incomplete vaccination was low as compared to the Ethiopian national report. Educational status of mother/caregiver, TT vaccination of mother, ANC follow-ups, place of delivery, and living near health facilities were significantly associated with incomplete vaccination. In light of these findings, the Ethiopian zonal health office and health care professionals should strengthen maternal health services to decrease the rate of defaulters from complete vaccination

The prevalence of asymptomatic malaria parasitemia and associated factors among adults in Dembia district, northwest Ethiopia, 2017

Abstract Background Malaria is still a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in many developing countries including Ethiopia. Its prevalence has been declining among Ethiopian adults, especially in Dembia district. However, it is still at the top of diseases list at the district. Hence, the study aimed to determine the prevalence and the factors that contribute to its being the major public health concern despite different preventive and control measures in place. Methods A community based cross-sectional study was conducted from October 11 to November 16, 2017. The multistage sampling technique was employed to select 832 study participants. A rapid diagnostic test were used to confirm the disease. Data were entered using Epi info version 7 and was analyzed by Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 20. The logistic regression model was performed to examine the association of factors with malaria parasite. Results Out of the 832 adults included in the study, 6.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 5.2–8.7)) were confirmed to be malaria parasite carriers. The dominant plasmodium species was Plasmodium falciparum [46 (82%)]. According to the multivariable logistic regression analysis, male sex (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR = 4.5; 95%CI: 2.1–9.5), adult age 15–19 years (AOR = 4.5; 95%CI: 2.1–9.7), travel history (AOR = 5; 95%CI: 2.34–12.25), and stagnant water around home (AOR = 3.7; 95%CI: 1.57–8.87) increased the probability of malaria infectivity, while Insecticidal Treated Nets (ITN) utilization (AOR = 0.2; 95%CI: 0.09–0.31) decreased it. Conclusion Malaria is still an important public health challenge among adults in the study area. Male sex, age 15–19 years, travel history, living around stagnant water, and not using ITN increased the probability of infection. Therefore, the District Health office and Health extension workers should work to increase ITN distribution and focus on reducing malaria breading sites through community participation

Self-medication during pregnancy and associated factors among pregnant women in Goba town, southeast Ethiopia: a community based cross sectional study

Abstract Objective The use of self-medications during pregnancy results in serious structural as well as functional adverse effects on mothers and unborn children. But little is known about the practice of self-medication used during pregnancy in Ethiopia. Therefore, this research aimed to assess the prevalence of self-medication practice and associated factors during pregnancy among pregnant women in Goba town, southeast Ethiopia. Results The prevalence of self-medication was 15.5% (95% CI 0.116, 0.195) in Goba town. Women who had health problems during pregnancy (AOR = 6.1, 95% CI 2.67, 13.9), women unable to read and write (AOR = 8.87, 95% CI 1.84, 41.95), those who can read and write (AOR = 5.26, 95% CI 1.34, 20.66) and had primary education (AOR = 3.57, 95% CI 1.42, 9.02) were more likely to use self-medication, while women who visited ANC for pregnancy (AOR = 0.028, 95% CI 0.09, 0.87) were less likely to indulge on such practices. In conclusion, the prevalence of self-medication noted in this work is medium compared to the react of other studies. Health institutions have to give health education to all pregnant women attending ANC services regardless of gestational age and types of health problem

Trends and determinants of home delivery in Ethiopia: further multivariate decomposition analysis of 2005–2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys

Objective This study aimed to assess the trends and factors that had contributed to the change in home delivery in Ethiopia over the last decade.Design, setting and analysis A nationally representative repeated cross-sectional survey was conducted using 2005, 2011 and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. Multivariate decomposition logistic regression analysis was employed to identify significant factors that have been contributed to the change in home delivery. Level of statistical significance was declared at a two-sided p value <0.05.Outcome measure Trends of home delivery.Participants A total of 33 482 women were included.Results Home delivery has been decreased by 21% over the last decade in Ethiopia. In the last decade, 39% of the decrements in home delivery attributed to change in women’s compositional characteristics. Antenatal care visits, educational status of the women and husband, birth order, religion, wealth index and distance from a health facility were the main sources of compositional change factors for the change of home delivery. Behavioural changes towards health facility delivery contributed approximately two-thirds of the decline of home delivery in Ethiopia. Antenatal care visits, birth order and religion have significantly contributed to the change of home delivery resulted from behavioural changes towards healthcare facility utilisation over the last decade.Conclusion Despite the importance of health facility delivery, a significant number of women still deliver at home in Ethiopia. Women’s compositional characteristics and behaviour changes were significantly associated with the change in home delivery. Multisectoral educational intervention is needed to change women’s attitudes towards home delivery. Antenatal care coverage and healthcare facility coverage should increase thereby to improve healthcare facility based-delivery practice. Further research needs to be done to explore the potential barriers of health facility delivery from a religious perspective

Sampling procedure and sampling technique geographically weighted regression analysis of anemia and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia using 2016 EDHS.

Sampling procedure and sampling technique geographically weighted regression analysis of anemia and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia using 2016 EDHS.</p

Spatial distribution of anemia among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, EDHS 2016.

Spatial distribution of anemia among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, EDHS 2016.</p

Spatial autocorrelation of anemia among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, EDHS 2016.

Spatial autocorrelation of anemia among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, EDHS 2016.</p

Parameters and model fit statistics for multi-level models.

Parameters and model fit statistics for multi-level models.</p