A new moment-dependent method of probability distributionidentification

A distribution identification method is developed in the paper. The method derives a sequence of characteristic standardized moment ratios for a class of common continuous distribution. The use of the method has been demonstrated via several examples of identifying hypothesized random variables. The method correctly identified the hypothesized distributio

A new moment-dependent method of probability distributionidentification

A distribution identification method is developed in the paper. The method derives a sequence of characteristic standardized moment ratios for a class of common continuous distribution. The use of the method has been demonstrated via several examples of identifying hypothesized random variables. The method correctly identified the hypothesized distributio

Measurement of the Charge Asymmetry in B→K∗(892)±π∓B\to K^* (892)^{\pm}\pi^{\mp}

We report on a search for a CP-violating asymmetry in the charmless hadronic decay B -> K*(892)+- pi-+, using 9.12 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity produced at \sqrt{s}=10.58 GeV and collected with the CLEO detector. We find A_{CP}(B -> K*(892)+- pi-+) = 0.26+0.33-0.34(stat.)+0.10-0.08(syst.), giving an allowed interval of [-0.31,0.78] at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 7 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Study of the q^2-Dependence of B --> pi ell nu and B --> rho(omega)ell nu Decay and Extraction of |V_ub|

We report on determinations of |Vub| resulting from studies of the branching fraction and q^2 distributions in exclusive semileptonic B decays that proceed via the b->u transition. Our data set consists of the 9.7x10^6 BBbar meson pairs collected at the Y(4S) resonance with the CLEO II detector. We measure B(B0 -> pi- l+ nu) = (1.33 +- 0.18 +- 0.11 +- 0.01 +- 0.07)x10^{-4} and B(B0 -> rho- l+ nu) = (2.17 +- 0.34 +0.47/-0.54 +- 0.41 +- 0.01)x10^{-4}, where the errors are statistical, experimental systematic, systematic due to residual form-factor uncertainties in the signal, and systematic due to residual form-factor uncertainties in the cross-feed modes, respectively. We also find B(B+ -> eta l+ nu) = (0.84 +- 0.31 +- 0.16 +- 0.09)x10^{-4}, consistent with what is expected from the B -> pi l nu mode and quark model symmetries. We extract |Vub| using Light-Cone Sum Rules (LCSR) for 0<= q^2<16 GeV^2 and Lattice QCD (LQCD) for 16 GeV^2 <= q^2 < q^2_max. Combining both intervals yields |Vub| = (3.24 +- 0.22 +- 0.13 +0.55/-0.39 +- 0.09)x10^{-3}$ for pi l nu, and |Vub| = (3.00 +- 0.21 +0.29/-0.35 +0.49/-0.38 +-0.28)x10^{-3} for rho l nu, where the errors are statistical, experimental systematic, theoretical, and signal form-factor shape, respectively. Our combined value from both decay modes is |Vub| = (3.17 +- 0.17 +0.16/-0.17 +0.53/-0.39 +-0.03)x10^{-3}.Comment: 45 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Search for CP Violation in D^0--> K_S^0 pi^+pi^-

We report on a search for CP violation in the decay of D0 and D0B to Kshort pi+pi-. The data come from an integrated luminosity of 9.0 1/fb of e+e- collisions at sqrt(s) ~ 10 GeV recorded with the CLEO II.V detector. The resonance substructure of this decay is well described by ten quasi-two-body decay channels (K*-pi+, K*0(1430)-pi+, K*2(1430)-pi+, K*(1680)-pi+, Kshort rho, Kshort omega, Kshort f0(980), Kshort f2(1270), Kshort f0(1370), and the ``wrong sign'' K*+ pi-) plus a small non-resonant component. We observe no evidence for CP violation in the amplitudes and phases that describe the decay D0 to K_S^0 pi+pi-.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, also available at http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, submitted to PR

Measurement of Lepton Momentum Moments in the Decay bar{B} \to X \ell \bar{\nu} and Determination of Heavy Quark Expansion Parameters and |V_cb|

We measure the primary lepton momentum spectrum in B-bar to X l nu decays, for p_l > 1.5 GeV/c in the B rest frame. From this, we calculate various moments of the spectrum. In particular, we find R_0 = [int(E_l>1.7) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] / [int(E_l>1.5) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] = 0.6187 +/- 0.0014_stat +/- 0.0016_sys and R_1 = [int(E_l>1.5) E_l(dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] / [int(E_l>1.5) (dGam/dE_sl)*dE_l] = (1.7810 +/- 0.0007_stat +/- 0.0009_sys) GeV. We use these moments to determine non-perturbative parameters governing the semileptonic width. In particular, we extract the Heavy Quark Expansion parameters Lambda-bar = (0.39 +/- 0.03_stat +/- 0.06_sys +/- 0.12_th) GeV and lambda_1 = (-0.25 +/- 0.02_stat +/- 0.05_sys +/- 0.14_th) GeV^2. The theoretical constraints used are evaluated through order 1/M_B^3 in the non-perturbative expansion and beta_0*alpha__s^2 in the perturbative expansion. We use these parameters to extract |V_cb| from the world average of the semileptonic width and find |V_cb| = (40.8 +/- 0.5_Gam-sl +/- 0.4_(lambda_1,Lambda-bar)-exp +/- 0.9_th) x 10^-3. In addition, we extract the short range b-quark mass m_b^1S = (4.82 +/- 0.07_exp +/- 0.11_th) GeV/c^2. Finally, we discuss the implications of our measurements for the theoretical understanding of inclusive semileptonic processes.Comment: 21 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362