104 research outputs found
Study on Blast Pressure Resistance of Foamed Concrete Material
Great demand exist for more efficient design to protect personals and critical components against explosion or blast wave, generated both accidentally and deliberately, in various blast scenarios in both civilian and military activities. Concrete is a common material used in protective design of structures. Recently, the demands on producing the lighter concrete material have become interest in concrete research. Foamed concrete is a possible alternative of lightweight concrete for producing intermediate strength capabilities with excellent thermal insulation, freeze-thaw resistance, high-impact resistance and good shock absorption. This paper explores the role and development of Blast Pressure Resistant Materials (BPRM’s) on foamed concrete. The explosive tests were conducted to determine the blast mitigating properties. The results show that when the foamed concrete density is increases the blast energy absorption capability will be decreases due to reduce of cavity volume. This is suggested that cavity plays an important role to dissipate and absorb the shock energy of the blast
Finite Element Simulation on Crack Analysis of a Thick-Tube
Most engineering failure began with cracks. Crack may caused by material defect, discontinuities in geometry or damage in service. Thus, Fracture Mechanics is introduced as a method for predicting failure of a surface containing a crack. This project is focusing on pre-existing crack with assumption that no microscopic defects are presents. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) is used to evaluate the Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) of the specimen. Further analysis is done by incorporating Elastic Plastic Fracture Mechanics (EPFM) to understand the crack growth over period of time. In this study, the important parameters in fracture mechanics such as Stress Intensity Factor (SIF), Crack Mouth Opening Displacement (CMOD), J Integral and stable crack growth are been investigated. A complex loading simulation of NKS-3 specimen is done using finite element modeling. The NKS-3 is a thick-tube used in Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) which has a circumferential flaw on its inner surface. The cylinder is loaded with axial tensile load and internal pressure combined with thermal shock. A 2-Dimensional Axysimmetric-4 nodes element with focused mesh at the crack tip is employed in the simulation. Several analyses have been done using hardening data at different temperature. A comparison of solution is made for simulation with and without thermal load history. Further analysis showed that the stable crack growth is estimated to be around 3.0mm
Eye Corners Detection using HAAR Cascade Classifiers in Controlled Environment
Facial landmarks detection is undoubtedly important in many applications in computer vision for example face detection and recognition. This article demonstrated the use of Haar Cascade Classifiers to automatically locate the eye corners. We acquired our 3D face image data by Vectra 3D camera in a controlled environment. We use two data set of 300 eye images to train en and ex cascade classifiers regardless of the left and the right eye. These classifiers were then used to detect and locate the inner (en) and outer (ex) eye landmarks. To train HAAR cascade classifier we usually use huge amounts of data. But in this study, about 300 positive images used to train each classifier. Due to this we observed quite an amount of false positive detection. We developed a simple algorithm to predict the eye corners by first eliminate the false detection and geometrically modeled the eye. Our classifiers able to detect and locate en on 53 out of 60 test images and the ability to detect ex in 59 out of 60 test images. In craniofacial anthropometry, it is very important to locate the facial landmarks as per the standard definition of the landmarks. Our results demonstrated accurate detection of ex and en facial landmarks as per standard definition. In conclusion, our trained enHaar and exHaar cascade classifiers are able to automatically detect the en and ex craniofacial landmarks in a controlled environment
Explaining the diffusion of energy-efficient lighting in India : a technology innovation systems approach
Electricity consumption from lighting accounts for about 15% of total power demand and 5−6% of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. It is therefore a promising avenue to achieve considerable energy savings through technological innovation and upgrading. India has been very successful in recent years with a nationwide roll-out of modern light-emitting diode (LED) applications. This study uses the framework of technology innovation systems to identify the actors, institutions, and processes behind the diffusion of this technology. Our findings indicate that national innovation strategies, along with low-carbon technology (LCT) transfer policies, helped to bring down the cost of LED lamps in a rapidly expanding domestic market. Based on the findings, we further explore lessons for broader issues of low-carbon technology transfer and suggest an emerging intermediate step between north−south and south−south technology transfer
Creating an engaging and stimulating anatomy lecture environment using the Cognitive Load Theory-based Lecture Model: Students' experiences
Objective: There is a need to create a standard interactive anatomy lecture that can engage students in their learning process. This study investigated the impact of a new lecturing guideline, the Cognitive Load Theory-based Lecture Model (CLT-bLM), on students’ cognitive engagement and motivation.
Methods: A randomised controlled trial involving 197
participants from three institutions was conducted. The
control group attended a freestyle lecture on the gross
anatomy of the heart, delivered by a qualified anatomist
from each institution. The intervention group attended a
CLT-bLM-based lecture on a similar topic, delivered by
the same lecturer, three weeks thereafter. The lecturers
had attended a CLT-bLM workshop that allowed them
to prepare for the CLT-bLM-based lecture over the
course of three weeks. The students’ ratings on their
cognitive engagement and internal motivation were
evaluated immediately after the lecture using a validatedLearners’ Engagement and Motivation Questionnaire.
The differences between variables were analysed and the
results were triangulated with the focus group discussion
findings that explored students’ experience while
attending the lecture.
Results: The intervention group has a significantly higher level of cognitive engagement than the control group; however, no significant difference in internal motivation score was found. In addition, the intervention group reported having a good learning experience from the
lectures.
Conclusion: The guideline successfully stimulated students’ cognitive engagement and learning experience,
which indicates a successful stimulation of students’
germane resources. Stimulation of these cognitive resources is essential for successful cognitive processing, especially when learning a difficult subject such as anatomy
Ballistic test investigation of hybrid rocket motor utilizing stearic acid biofuel with energetic additives for regression rate enhancement
This research evaluates a novel composition based on Stearic Acid (SA) wax fuel, enriched with aluminium and carbon nanotubes (CNT) for hybrid propulsion system by carrying out a ballistic test. Benchmarking the aluminium doped hybrid fuel with the SA wax fuel, the former reveal lesser viscosity which leads to relatively improved entrainment-aided combustion. In contrast to the pure SA fuel, fine aluminium powder doped hybrid fuels show solid-like behavior, and hence greater stability in the solid phase. The loading of ultrafine aluminium powder substantially improves the efficacy of fuel regression during ballistic firing
Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.
Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years.
Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4).
Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness
Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018
Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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