A Lagrangian Identification of the Main Sources of Moisture Affecting Northeastern Brazil during Its Pre-Rainy and Rainy Seasons

This work examines the sources of moisture affecting the semi-arid Brazilian Northeast (NEB) during its pre-rainy and rainy season (JFMAM) through a Lagrangian diagnosis method. The FLEXPART model identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region through the continuous computation of changes in the specific humidity along back or forward trajectories up to 10 days period. The numerical experiments were done for the period that spans between 2000 and 2004 and results were aggregated on a monthly basis. Results show that besides a minor local recycling component, the vast majority of moisture reaching NEB area is originated in the south Atlantic basin and that the nearby wet Amazon basin bears almost no impact. Moreover, although the maximum precipitation in the “Poligono das Secas” region (PS) occurs in March and the maximum precipitation associated with air parcels emanating from the South Atlantic towards PS is observed along January to March, the highest moisture contribution from this oceanic region occurs slightly later (April). A dynamical analysis suggests that the maximum precipitation observed in the PS sector does not coincide with the maximum moisture supply probably due to the combined effect of the Walker and Hadley cells in inhibiting the rising motions over the region in the months following April

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions

Impacts of cumulus convection parameterization on aqua-planet AGCM Simulations of tropical intraseasonal variability

Using an aqua-planet version of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the dependence of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) simulation on the cumulus parameterization was examined with three different cumulus schemes-simplified Arakawa-Schubert, Kuo, and moist convective adjustment. The simulated intensity and propagation characteristics of the ISO depend significantly on the choice of cumulus scheme, in which more constrained convection scheme produces stronger intraseasonal variability in tropics. Mean thermodynamic state and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) structure also vary among the simulations, demonstrating that the ISO variability and the mean states are mutually dependent. Following Tokioka et al. (1988), the simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme was modified by posing a minimum entrainment rate constraint for cumuli, and the relationship between tropical intraseasonal variability and zonal mean rainfall structure was examined. More constraining deep convections, the tropical ISO variability becomes stronger with narrower ITCZ structures. Vertical and horizontal structures of eastward propagating waves appeared in the aqua-planet experiments were further investigated. The vertical structures of propagating waves are consistent with observations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, but the vertical profile of ISO-modulated heating exhibits a middle-heavy structure and the simulated waves show relatively faster propagations compared with the observed. The horizontal composite structures show the boundary-layer moisture frictional convergence to the east, and divergence to the west of the convective region, and this suggests that a frictional Kelvin wave-CISK mechanism is important to these eastward propagating waves.close635