Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries�apart from Ecuador�across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50 or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10 of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups�the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4 (62.3 (55.1�70.8) million) to 6.4 (58.3 (47.6�70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization�s Global Nutrition Target of <5 in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2 (30 (22.8�38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0 (55.5 (44.8�67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s)

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

Analysis of sarcoidosis in the Oporto region (Portugal)

Background: Sarcoidosis is a systemic granulomatous disease of unknown etiology. Epidemiological studies of different populations are essential because clinical presentation, organ involvement, disease severity, and prognosis vary significantly according to region and population. The aim of this study was to assess epidemiological and clinical characteristics, staging factors, and clinical course in patients with sarcoidosis from a tertiary hospital in Oporto, Portugal. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients with sarcoidosis and at least 2 years of follow-up evaluated at the Centro Hospitalar de São João between 2000 and 2014. Results: We identified 409 patients with sarcoidosis (females, 58.9%; mean age at diagnosis, 38.9 ± 13.4 years; smokers, 14.4%]. All the patients were diagnosed according to the ERS/ATS/WASOG consensus statement and 64.1% had evidence of noncaseating epithelioid cell granulomas in biopsy specimens. Bronchoalveolar lavage was performed as part of the diagnostic work-up in 289 patients and 90.2% had lymphocytosis (CD4/CD8 ratio â¥Â 3.5 in 60.9% of cases). Exertion dyspnea, cough, and constitutional symptoms were the most common presenting symptoms; 10.1% of patients were asymptomatic, 22.8% had Löfgren syndrome, and 50.5% had extrathoracic involvement. Radiographic stages of disease according to the Scadding criteria were as follows: stage 0 (5.2%), stage I (33.7%), stage II (47.0%), stage III (8.4%), and stage IV (5.7%). Impaired respiratory function was observed in 45.6% patients and was mostly mild. Systemic treatment was administered in 58.6% of cases. Overall, 45.3% of patients experienced disease resolution. Conclusion: The epidemiological and clinical characteristics of this cohort of patients with sarcoidosis from the Oporto region in northern Portugal revealed epidemiological and clinical characteristics that were generally similar to those described in other Western Europe populations and in the US ACCESS study. However, we found a higher proportion of patients who progressed to chronic forms. Keywords: Sarcoidosis, Oporto, Löfgren syndrome, Extrathoracic involvement, Scadding criteri

Fibrose pulmonar idiopática: apresentação clínica, evolução e fatores de prognóstico basais numa coorte portuguesa

Resumo: Introdução: A Fibrose Pulmonar Idiopática (FPI) é a patologia mais comum no subgrupo das pneumonias intersticiais idiopáticas. Apesar de uma grande variabilidade no tipo de evolução clínica, está inexoravelmente associada a um mau prognóstico. Material e métodos: Foram identificados doentes com FPI, observados na consulta de doenças pulmonares difusas do Centro Hospitalar de São João, Porto, e revistos os seus parâmetros clínicos, funcionais, radiológicos e do lavado broncoalveolar (LBA). A evolução clínica e sobrevivência foram avaliadas, tendo sido igualmente identificados fatores prognósticos. Resultados: Foram incluídos 81 doentes com uma média de idade de 63,8 anos. Na altura do diagnóstico, as principais alterações funcionais identificadas foram a restrição, redução da difusão pulmonar e da capacidade de exercício. A maioria dos doentes (72.3%) apresentou uma evolução clínica lentamente progressiva. Em 10 doentes (13.2%), foi observada uma evolução rapidamente progressiva e 11 (14.,5%) apresentaram exacerbação aguda. Verificou-se uma associação entre a evolução rapidamente progressiva e uma maior gravidade funcional ao diagnóstico, nomeadamente na Capacidade Vital Forçada (CVF) e Capacidade Pulmonar Total (CPT). A sobrevida mediana foi de 36 meses. Verificou-se uma diferença estatisticamente significativa na sobrevida entre os diferentes grupos de evolução clínica: 41 meses para os doentes com evolução lentamente progressiva e 9 meses para os doentes com evolução rapidamente progressiva. Valores inferiores de CVF, CPT, distância na Prova da Marcha de 6 Minutos (PM6 M) e PaO2 em repouso, bem como o maior grau de neutrofilia no LBA estiveram associados a uma sobrevivência inferior em análise univariada. Conclusão: A análise deste grupo de doentes com FPI confirma a existência de 2 fenótipos claramente distintos, o de evolução lenta e o de evolução rapidamente progressiva. Estes fenótipos têm uma diferente apresentação clínica e uma história natural da doença claramente distinta, sugerindo a presença de diferentes mecanismos fisiopatológicos, os quais poderão implicar diferentes abordagens terapêuticas. Abstract: Introduction: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most common disease in the subgroup of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias. It is inevitably associated to a bad prognosis, although assuming a highly variable clinical course. Methods: Patients with IPF, observed at Interstitial Lung Diseases outpatient clinic of Centro Hospitalar de São João â Porto, Portugal, were identified and clinical, functional, radiological and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) parameters were reviewed. Their clinical course and survival were analyzed in order to identify prognostic factors. Results: Eighty-one patients were included, with a mean age at diagnosis of 63.8 years old. At diagnosis, the main functional abnormalities were restrictive physiology, reduced lung diffusion and exercise capacity impairment. Clinical course was mainly slowly progressive (72.3%). Ten patients (13.2%) had a rapid progression and 11 (14.5%) patients had an acute exacerbation during the course of the disease. IPF's rapid progression was associated to a higher functional impairment at diagnosis, namely in what is related with Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) and Total Lung Capacity (TLC). Median survival was 36 months. A significant difference in survival was observed among different types of clinical course â 41 months for slow progressors and 9 months for rapid progressors. Lower levels of FVC, TLC, 6th minute walk test distance and rest PaO2, and higher BAL neutrophil count were associated with poorer survival in univariate analysis. Conclusion: The analysis of this group of IPF patients confirms two clearly different phenotypes, slow and rapid progressors. Those phenotypes seem to have different presentations and a remarkably different natural history. These results could mean different physiopathologic pathways, which could implicate different therapeutic approaches. Palavras-chave: Fibrose pulmonar idiopática, Sobrevivência, Prognóstico, Keywords: Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis, Survival, Prognosi