Link Prediction in Complex Networks: A Survey

Link prediction in complex networks has attracted increasing attention from both physical and computer science communities. The algorithms can be used to extract missing information, identify spurious interactions, evaluate network evolving mechanisms, and so on. This article summaries recent progress about link prediction algorithms, emphasizing on the contributions from physical perspectives and approaches, such as the random-walk-based methods and the maximum likelihood methods. We also introduce three typical applications: reconstruction of networks, evaluation of network evolving mechanism and classification of partially labelled networks. Finally, we introduce some applications and outline future challenges of link prediction algorithms.Comment: 44 pages, 5 figure

Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out, using a set of three time series from electricity consumption in the real-world domain, on different forecasting horizons

Evolving integrated multi-model framework for on line multiple time series prediction

Time series prediction has been extensively researched in both the statistical and computational intelligence literature with robust methods being developed that can be applied across any given application domain. A much less researched problem is multiple time series prediction where the objective is to simultaneously forecast the values of multiple variables which interact with each other in time varying amounts continuously over time. In this paper we describe the use of a novel Integrated Multi-Model Framework (IMMF) that combined models developed at three di erent levels of data granularity, namely the Global, Local and Transductive models to perform multiple time series prediction. The IMMF is implemented by training a neural network to assign relative weights to predictions from the models at the three di erent levels of data granularity. Our experimental results indicate that IMMF signi cantly outperforms well established methods of time series prediction when applied to the multiple time series prediction problem

Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Mapping Big Data into Knowledge Space with Cognitive Cyber-Infrastructure

Big data research has attracted great attention in science, technology, industry and society. It is developing with the evolving scientific paradigm, the fourth industrial revolution, and the transformational innovation of technologies. However, its nature and fundamental challenge have not been recognized, and its own methodology has not been formed. This paper explores and answers the following questions: What is big data? What are the basic methods for representing, managing and analyzing big data? What is the relationship between big data and knowledge? Can we find a mapping from big data into knowledge space? What kind of infrastructure is required to support not only big data management and analysis but also knowledge discovery, sharing and management? What is the relationship between big data and science paradigm? What is the nature and fundamental challenge of big data computing? A multi-dimensional perspective is presented toward a methodology of big data computing.Comment: 59 page

Water leakage forecasting: The application of a modified fuzzy evolving algorithm

This paper investigates the use of evolving fuzzy algorithms in forecasting. An evolving Takagi-Sugeno (eTS) algorithm, which is based on a recursive version of the subtractive algorithm is considered. It groups data into several clusters based on Euclidean distance between the relevant independent variables. The Mod eTS algorithm, which incorporates a modified dynamic update of cluster radii while accommodating new available data is proposed. The created clusters serve as a base for fuzzy If-Then rules with Gaussian membership functions which are defined using the cluster centres and have linear functions in the consequent i.e., Then parts of rules. The parameters of the linear functions are calculated using a weighted version of the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to a leakage forecasting problem faced by one of the leading UK water supplying companies. Using the real world data provided by the company the forecasting results obtained from the proposed modified eTS algorithm, Mod eTS, are compared to the standard eTS algorithm, exTS, eTS+ and fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm and some standard statistical forecasting methods. Different measures of forecasting accuracy are used. The results show higher accuracy achieved by applying the algorithm proposed compared to other fuzzy clustering algorithms and statistical methods. Similar results are obtained when comparing with other fuzzy evolving algorithms with dynamic cluster radii. Furthermore the algorithm generates typically a smaller number of clusters than standard fuzzy forecasting methods which leads to more transparent forecasting models

Predicting Multi-class Customer Profiles Based on Transactions: a Case Study in Food Sales

Predicting the class of a customer profile is a key task in marketing, which enables businesses to approach the right customer with the right product at the right time through the right channel to satisfy the customer's evolving needs. However, due to costs, privacy and/or data protection, only the business' owned transactional data is typically available for constructing customer profiles. Predicting the class of customer profiles based on such data is challenging, as the data tends to be very large, heavily sparse and highly skewed. We present a new approach that is designed to efficiently and accurately handle the multi-class classification of customer profiles built using sparse and skewed transactional data. Our approach first bins the customer profiles on the basis of the number of items transacted. The discovered bins are then partitioned and prototypes within each of the discovered bins selected to build the multi-class classifier models. The results obtained from using four multi-class classifiers on real-world transactional data from the food sales domain consistently show the critical numbers of items at which the predictive performance of customer profiles can be substantially improved