Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Patent Foramen Ovale in Patients with Cerebral Infarction: A Transesophageal Echocradigraphy Study

Patent foramen ovale was detected in 37 patients (32%). Mean age was similar in those with (60 years) and those without (64 years) PFO. Patent foramen ovale was more frequent among men (39%) than women (20%, P=.03). Patients with PFO had a lower frequency of atrial fibrillation, diabetes me!litus, hypertension, and peripheral vascular disease compared with those without PFO. There was no difference in frequency of the following characteristics in patients with PFO compared with those without PFO: pulmonary embolus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, peripheral embolism, prior cerebral infarction, nosocomial cerebral infarction, Valsalva maneuver at the time of cerebral infarction, recent surgery, or hemorrhagic transformation of cerebral infarction. Patent foramen ovale was found in 22 (40%) of 55 patients with infarcts of uncertain cause and in 15 (25%) of 61 with infarcts of known cause (cardioembolic, 21%; large vessel atherostenosis, 25%; lacune, 40%) (P=.08). When the analysis was restricted to patients who underwent Valsalva maneuver, PFO with right to left or bidirectional shunt was found in 19 (50%) of 38 patients with infarcts of uncertain cause and in 6 (20%) of 30 with infarcts of known cause (P=.Ol). Conclusion: Although PFO was over-represented in patients with infarcts of uncertain cause in our and other studies, it has a high frequency among patients with cerebral infarction of all types. The relation between PFO and stroke requires further study

Risk factors for ischemic stroke: A prospective study in Rochester, Minnesota

A cohort of 1,804 residents of Rochester, Minnesota, who were at least 50 years old, free of stroke, and who underwent examination at the Mayo Clinic in 1960, was followed for 13 years. During this period, there were 110 first ischemic strokes and 616 deaths without stroke. The time of onset, if available, or the time of diagnosis of potential risk factors was determined for all patients during the study and was used to construct a proportional hazards model of time to occurrence of stroke with time‐dependent risk factors. The model included 8 risk factors (2 fixed and 6 time dependent). For these, the individual relative risk are: 1.6 for age (per 10 years), 2.0 for males, 4.0 for definite hypertension, 3.9 for transient ischemic attacks, 2.2 for hypertensive heart disease, 2.2 for coronary heart disease, 1.7 for congestive heart failure, and 1.7 for diabetes mellitus. Atrial fibrillation was not a significant risk factor using time dependent multivariate analysis. Copyrigh