Essays in the Economics of Healthcare

How to provide and fund healthcare is becoming an increasingly important debate in many countries due to widespread demographic changes. This has led to a growing focus on inequalities in the amount and quality of care provided to different groups. This thesis contains three papers that examine the roles played by medical staff and institutional frameworks in explaining this variation. Throughout, I use the English National Health Service as a testbed to examine these roles, exploiting the institutional features of this universal public health system and its rich administrative data. In the first paper, I examine the extent to which individual doctors explain variation in patient outcomes. Studying consultants treating heart attack patients, I exploit within-hospital random assignment of patients to doctors, and the movement of staff between hospitals, to estimate the effect of individual doctors on patient survival. I show considerable variation in the quality of individual doctors, and examine potential improvements in patient survival from reassigning doctors across patients. In the second paper, I study the impacts of external regulation on the performance of doctors in English emergency departments. I extend a ‘bunching’ methodology commonly used in the tax literature to examine the impacts of the four-hour waiting time target that applies to all English hospitals. I show the regulation was successful in reducing waiting times and drastically reduced mortality. This shows that changes to the incentives of doctors can be successful in improving care quality. In the final paper, I examine the impact of reforms that allowed pre-existing private hospitals to enter public healthcare markets. I exploit historical locations of hospitals to instrument for potentially endogenous hospital entry. I show private hospital entry sizeably expanded the market, but led to little competition between new and existing hospitals, and therefore did not impact care quality

Emv2, the only endogenous ecotropic murine leukemia virus of C57BL/6J mice

With the proliferation of sequence data, great challenges are posed in the correct annotation of endogenous retroviruses, which together comprise up to ten per cent of the genomes of many organisms. It is therefore essential that all sources of information are carefully considered before drawing conclusions concerning the phylogeny, distribution and biological properties of endogenous retroviruses. We suggest that such due diligence has not been applied in the description of an endogenous ecotropic retrovirus that recently appeared in Retrovirology

Negative Selection by an Endogenous Retrovirus Promotes a Higher-Avidity CD4+ T Cell Response to Retroviral Infection

Effective T cell responses can decisively influence the outcome of retroviral infection. However, what constitutes protective T cell responses or determines the ability of the host to mount such responses is incompletely understood. Here we studied the requirements for development and induction of CD4+ T cells that were essential for immunity to Friend virus (FV) infection of mice, according to their TCR avidity for an FV-derived epitope. We showed that a self peptide, encoded by an endogenous retrovirus, negatively selected a significant fraction of polyclonal FV-specific CD4+ T cells and diminished the response to FV infection. Surprisingly, however, CD4+ T cell-mediated antiviral activity was fully preserved. Detailed repertoire analysis revealed that clones with low avidity for FV-derived peptides were more cross-reactive with self peptides and were consequently preferentially deleted. Negative selection of low-avidity FV-reactive CD4+ T cells was responsible for the dominance of high-avidity clones in the response to FV infection, suggesting that protection against the primary infecting virus was mediated exclusively by high-avidity CD4+ T cells. Thus, although negative selection reduced the size and cross-reactivity of the available FV-reactive naïve CD4+ T cell repertoire, it increased the overall avidity of the repertoire that responded to infection. These findings demonstrate that self proteins expressed by replication-defective endogenous retroviruses can heavily influence the formation of the TCR repertoire reactive with exogenous retroviruses and determine the avidity of the response to retroviral infection. Given the overabundance of endogenous retroviruses in the human genome, these findings also suggest that endogenous retroviral proteins, presented by products of highly polymorphic HLA alleles, may shape the human TCR repertoire that reacts with exogenous retroviruses or other infecting pathogens, leading to interindividual heterogeneity

Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002–19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Background: Dementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity. // Methods: Population-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002–03) to wave 9 (2018–19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002–06, 2004–08, 2006–10, 2008–12, 2010–14, 2012–16, and 2014–18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend. // Findings: Incidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58–0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03–1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62–1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast. // Interpretation: Dementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large. // Funding: UK Economic and Social Research Council

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020–2029

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Collins et al.Background There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia and disability. Methods Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau—age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall—age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). Findings The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. Interpretation After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.Peer reviewe

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Educational Inequalities in Hospital Use Among Older Adults in England, 2004-2015.

Policy Points US policymakers considering proposals to expand public health care (such as "Medicare for all") as a means of reducing inequalities in health care access and use could learn from the experiences of nations where well-funded universal health care systems are already in place. In England, which has a publicly funded universal health care system, the use of core inpatient services by adults 65 years and older is equal across groups defined by education level, after controlling for health status. However, variation among these groups in the use of outpatient and emergency department care developed between 2010 and 2015, a period of relative financial austerity. Based on England's experience, introducing universal health care in the United States seems likely to reduce, but not entirely eliminate, inequalities in health care use across different population groups. CONTEXT: Expanding access to health care is once again high on the US political agenda, as is concern about those who are being "left behind." But is universal health care that is largely free at the point of use sufficient to eliminate inequalities in health care use? To explore this question, we studied variation in the use of hospital care among education-level-defined groups of older adults in England, before and after controlling for differences in health status. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) provides health care free to all, but the growth rate for NHS funding has slowed markedly since 2010 during a widespread austerity program, potentially increasing inequalities in access and use. METHODS: Novel linkage of data from six waves (2004-2015) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) with participants' hospital records (Hospital Episode Statistics [HES]) produced longitudinal data for 7,713 older adults (65 years and older) and 25,864 observations. We divided the sample into three groups by education level: low (no formal qualifications), mid (completed compulsory education), and high (at least some higher education). Four outcomes were examined: annual outpatient appointments, elective inpatient admissions, emergency inpatient admissions, and emergency department (ED) visits. We estimated regressions for the periods 2004-2005 to 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 to 2014-2015 to examine whether potential education-related inequalities in hospital use increased after the growth rate for NHS funding slowed in 2010. FINDINGS: For the study period, our sample of ELSA respondents in the low-education group made 2.44 annual outpatient visits. In comparison, after controlling for health status, we found that participants in the high-education group made an additional 0.29 outpatient visits annually (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.47). Additional outpatient health care use in the high-education group was driven by follow-up and routine appointments. This inequality widened after 2010. Between 2010 and 2015, individuals in the high-education group made 0.48 (95% CI, 0.21-0.74) more annual outpatient visits than those in the low-education (16.9% [7.5% to 26.2%] of annual average 2.82 visits). In contrast, after 2010, the high-education group made 0.04 (95% CI, -0.075 to 0.001) fewer annual ED visits than the low-education group, which had a mean of 0.30 annual ED visits. No significant differences by education level were found for elective or emergency inpatient admissions in either period. CONCLUSIONS: After controlling for demographics and health status, there was no evidence of inequality in elective and emergency inpatient admissions among the education groups in our sample. However, a period of financial budget tightening for the NHS after 2010 was associated with the emergence of education gradients in other forms of hospital care, with respondents in the high-education group using more outpatient care and less ED care than peers in the low-education group. These estimates point to rising inequalities in the use of hospital care that, if not reversed, could exacerbate existing health inequalities in England. Although the US and UK settings differ in many ways, our results also suggest that a universal health care system would likely reduce inequality in US health care use

Trapping in irradiated p-on-n silicon sensors at fluences anticipated at the HL-LHC outer tracker

The degradation of signal in silicon sensors is studied under conditions expected at the CERN High-Luminosity LHC. 200 $\mu$m thick n-type silicon sensors are irradiated with protons of different energies to fluences of up to $3 \cdot 10^{15}$ neq/cm$^2$. Pulsed red laser light with a wavelength of 672 nm is used to generate electron-hole pairs in the sensors. The induced signals are used to determine the charge collection efficiencies separately for electrons and holes drifting through the sensor. The effective trapping rates are extracted by comparing the results to simulation. The electric field is simulated using Synopsys device simulation assuming two effective defects. The generation and drift of charge carriers are simulated in an independent simulation based on PixelAV. The effective trapping rates are determined from the measured charge collection efficiencies and the simulated and measured time-resolved current pulses are compared. The effective trapping rates determined for both electrons and holes are about 50% smaller than those obtained using standard extrapolations of studies at low fluences and suggests an improved tracker performance over initial expectations