Trends in the incidence of rain rates associated with outages on fixed links operating above 10 GHz in the southern United Kingdom

Studies have shown that climate change is leading to an increase in the incidence of heavy rain in the United Kingdom, particularly over winter. The major interest has been on the hydrological impacts of this increase, and so studies have focused on rain accumulations over hours or days and for large catchments. The availability of fixed, microwave links is limited by the incidence of heavy rain with an integration time of a minute or less. This document introduces evidence of an increasing trend in rain rates associated with outages. High-resolution rain data, produced by 30 tipping bucket gauges sited in the south of England, have been analyzed to identify these trends. The data span up to 20 years at each site. Increasing trends in the incidence of rain rates exceeded at annual time percentages between 0.005% and 0.1% are demonstrated. Data suggest that the total annual outage would have doubled or tripled over each decade analyzed for the majority of fixed links operating at rain fade limited frequencies. It is plausible that this trend could continue

Estimating 1min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of one-minute rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen Poiares-Baptista method where one-minute rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by Numerical Weather Products (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of six-hour accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP and these are linked to distributions of fine scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK and the extension to other regions is discussed

Evidence of trends in rain event size effecting trends in rain fade

Rain gauge studies have shown that the incidence of rain at rates associated with outage on terrestrial links, has shown an increasing trend in several countries, over the last 30 years. However, no evidence is available from microwave links to show whether outage rates, or the incidence of fade, is similarly increasing. This paper presents evidence of fade trends, derived from a decade of rain radar data. Although a decade is too short a period to observe rain rate trends, evidence is presented that trends in the size of rain events is leading to changes in the relationship between point rain rates and rain fade. Furthermore, these trends are shown to vary significantly across the UK. Temporal trends in both rain rates and their link to rain fade, make it more difficult to adapt ITU-R Recommendation to a changing climate

A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data

It is known that the rain rate exceeded 0.01% of the time in the UK has experienced an increasing trend over the last 20 years. It is very likely that rain fade and outage experience a similar trend. This paper presents a globally applicable method to estimate these trends, based on the widely accepted Salonen-Poiares Baptista model. The input data are parameters easily extracted from numerical weather prediction reanalysis data. The method is verified using rain gauge data from the UK, and the predicted trend slopes of 0.01% exceeded rain rate are presented on a global grid

Estimating one-minute rain rate distributions in the Tropics from TRMM satellite data (October 2017)

© 2008-2012 IEEE. Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space extremely high frequency (EHF) links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1-min rain rates. In Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are estimated from the data provided by Numerical Weather Products (NWPs). NWP yields rain accumulations over regions typically larger than 100 km across and over intervals of 6 h. Over the tropics, the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data yield instantaneous rain rates over regions 5 km across. This paper uses TRMM data to estimate rain rate distributions for telecommunications regulation over the tropics. Rain rate distributions are calculated for each 1° square between 35° south to 35° north. These distributions of instantaneous rain rates over 5 km squares are transformed to distributions over 1 km squares using a correction calculated from U.K. Nimrod radar data. Results are compared to rain distributions in DBSG3, the database of ITU-R Study Group 3. A comparison with the new Rec. ITU-R P.837-7 is also presented. A table of 0.01% exceeded rain rates over the tropics is provided as associated data

BOLD Temporal Dynamics of Rat Superior Colliculus and Lateral Geniculate Nucleus following Short Duration Visual Stimulation

Background: The superior colliculus (SC) and lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) are important subcortical structures for vision. Much of our understanding of vision was obtained using invasive and small field of view (FOV) techniques. In this study, we use non-invasive, large FOV blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI to measure the SC and LGN's response temporal dynamics following short duration (1 s) visual stimulation. Methodology/Principal Findings: Experiments are performed at 7 tesla on Sprague Dawley rats stimulated in one eye with flashing light. Gradient-echo and spin-echo sequences are used to provide complementary information. An anatomical image is acquired from one rat after injection of monocrystalline iron oxide nanoparticles (MION), a blood vessel contrast agent. BOLD responses are concentrated in the contralateral SC and LGN. The SC BOLD signal measured with gradient-echo rises to 50% of maximum amplitude (PEAK) 0.2±0.2 s before the LGN signal (p<0.05). The LGN signal returns to 50% of PEAK 1.4±1.2 s before the SC signal (p<0.05). These results indicate the SC signal rises faster than the LGN signal but settles slower. Spin-echo results support these findings. The post-MION image shows the SC and LGN lie beneath large blood vessels. This subcortical vasculature is similar to that in the cortex, which also lies beneath large vessels. The LGN lies closer to the large vessels than much of the SC. Conclusions/Significance: The differences in response timing between SC and LGN are very similar to those between deep and shallow cortical layers following electrical stimulation, which are related to depth-dependent blood vessel dilation rates. This combined with the similarities in vasculature between subcortex and cortex suggest the SC and LGN timing differences are also related to depth-dependent dilation rates. This study shows for the first time that BOLD responses in the rat SC and LGN following short duration visual stimulation are temporally different. © 2011 Lau et al

Rare coding variants in PLCG2, ABI3, and TREM2 implicate microglial-mediated innate immunity in Alzheimer's disease

We identified rare coding variants associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in a 3-stage case-control study of 85,133 subjects. In stage 1, 34,174 samples were genotyped using a whole-exome microarray. In stage 2, we tested associated variants (P<1×10-4) in 35,962 independent samples using de novo genotyping and imputed genotypes. In stage 3, an additional 14,997 samples were used to test the most significant stage 2 associations (P<5×10-8) using imputed genotypes. We observed 3 novel genome-wide significant (GWS) AD associated non-synonymous variants; a protective variant in PLCG2 (rs72824905/p.P522R, P=5.38×10-10, OR=0.68, MAFcases=0.0059, MAFcontrols=0.0093), a risk variant in ABI3 (rs616338/p.S209F, P=4.56×10-10, OR=1.43, MAFcases=0.011, MAFcontrols=0.008), and a novel GWS variant in TREM2 (rs143332484/p.R62H, P=1.55×10-14, OR=1.67, MAFcases=0.0143, MAFcontrols=0.0089), a known AD susceptibility gene. These protein-coding changes are in genes highly expressed in microglia and highlight an immune-related protein-protein interaction network enriched for previously identified AD risk genes. These genetic findings provide additional evidence that the microglia-mediated innate immune response contributes directly to AD development

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens