Testing the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa

Energy demand, supply and pricing impact on socio-economic development, living standards and the overall quality of life of people. The role of energy in the industrial sector activities underscores its link with economic development. For more than three decades, economists and policymakers have been preoccupied with the classic debate on energy consumption and economic growth nexus. This Paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption disaggregated into coal, hydro and oil, and economic growth in Nigeria and South Africa. Several studies have adopted the standard Granger causality method which places some minimum restriction on the stationarity property of data. Thus, the Hsiao’s Granger causality version was applied to correct these restrictions for the comparative analysis. The estimated results reveal that economic growth causes total energy consumption in South Africa while energy consumption causes economic expansion in Nigeria. The economic implication of this finding is that sub-optimal utilization of energy resources through energy conservative policy may not lead to significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. However, energy enhancement policy could engender economic growth in South Africa. Key words: Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Energy policy

The Impact of Multilateralism and Regionalism on Trade Policy Effectiveness in Nigeria

This paper examines the impact of multilateralism and regionalism on the effectiveness of trade policy performance in sub-Sahara Africa with particular evidence from Nigeria. The paper critically assesses the implications of the multilateral trading system along the increasing but asymmetric interface between multilateralism and regionalism on SSA. The issues relating to market access and export supply response to incentives derived from the various agreements provided basis for this reasoned analysis. It is revealed that the multilateral trading system has not benefited the SSA relative to other regions like Asia. Perhaps, internal and external constraints associated with poor economic fundamentals, asymmetries between the rules of the game and the development aspirations of the nations and lack of capacity to negotiate undermine the effectiveness of trade policy in the region. To tap fully on the potentials expected from the pro-neoclassical policy however, a new framework that offers African nations including Nigeria stronger voice to renegotiate in line with their fundamentals should be invoked. Key Words: Multilateralism, Regionalism, Market Assess and Export Supply Response

Searching for Appropriate Crude Oil Price Benchmarking Method in the Nigerian Budgeting Process

One of the fundamental challenges facing policymakers in Nigeria is the benchmarking of crude oil price in the budgeting process. Appropriate projection of future behavior of crude oil price is imperative in setting and achieving macroeconomic objectives of the government. This paper surveyed the various forecasting models and examined the current Moving Average benchmarking method to determine the best forecasting model for Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to2012Q4 on oil price benchmark, the study finds that ARIMA model is the best forecasting model for projecting Nigeria’s crude oil price benchmark. Based on this scenario, it was also found that $80 could be the appropriate crude oil price benchmark for 2013 fiscal year. The study suggests that benchmarking of crude oil should be based on the crude oil price fundamental to enhance predictability of policy and promote macroeconomic stability. Key words: Budget Process, Forecasting Models, Predictability and Macroeconomic Stabilit

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative sars-cov-2 infection: An international cohort study

Background The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (740%) had emergency surgery and 280 (248%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (261%) patients. 30-day mortality was 238% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (512%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 380% (219 of 577), accounting for 817% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 175 [95% CI 128-240], p<00001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (230 [165-322], p<00001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3-5 versus grades 1-2 (235 [157-353], p<00001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (155 [101-239], p=0046), emergency versus elective surgery (167 [106-263], p=0026), and major versus minor surgery (152 [101-231], p=0047). Interpretation Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Clinical validity of increased cortical uptake of [F-18]flortaucipir on PET as a biomarker for Alzheimer's disease in the context of a structured 5-phase biomarker development framework

Purpose In 2017, the Geneva Alzheimer's disease (AD) Biomarker Roadmap initiative adapted the framework of the systematic validation of oncological diagnostic biomarkers to AD biomarkers, with the aim to accelerate their development and implementation in clinical practice. With this work, we assess the maturity of [F-18]flortaucipir PET and define its research priorities. Methods The level of maturity of [F-18]flortaucipir was assessed based on the AD Biomarker Roadmap. The framework assesses analytical validity (phases 1-2), clinical validity (phases 3-4), and clinical utility (phase 5). Results The main aims of phases 1 (rationale for use) and 2 (discriminative ability) have been achieved. [F-18]Flortaucipir binds with high affinity to paired helical filaments of tau and has favorable kinetic properties and excellent discriminative accuracy for AD. The majority of secondary aims of phase 2 were fully achieved. Multiple studies showed high correlations between ante-mortem [F-18]flortaucipir PET and post-mortem tau (as assessed by histopathology), and also the effects of covariates on tracer binding are well studied. The aims of phase 3 (early detection ability) were only partially or preliminarily achieved, and the aims of phases 4 and 5 were not achieved. Conclusion Current literature provides partial evidence for clinical utility of [F-18]flortaucipir PET. The aims for phases 1 and 2 were mostly achieved. Phase 3 studies are currently ongoing. Future studies including representative MCI populations and a focus on healthcare outcomes are required to establish full maturity of phases 4 and 5

Preserving accuracy in GenBank

GenBank, the public repository for nucleotide and protein sequences, is a critical resource for molecular biology, evolutionary biology, and ecology. While some attention has been drawn to sequence errors (1), common annotation errors also reduce the value of this database. In fact, for organisms such as fungi, which are notoriously difficult to identify, up to 20% of DNA sequence records may have erroneous lineage designations in GenBank (2). Gene function annotation in protein sequence databases is similarly error-prone (3, 4). Because identity and function of new sequences are often determined by bioinformatic analyses, both types of errors are propagated into new accessions, leading to long-term degradation of the quality of the database. Currently, primary sequence data are annotated by the authors of those data, and can only be reannotated by the same authors. This is inefficient and unsustainable over the long term as authors eventually leave the field. Although it is possible to link third-party databases to GenBank records, this is a short-term solution that has little guarantee of permanence. Similarly, the current third-party annotation option in GenBank (TPA) complicates rather than solves the problem by creating an identical record with a new annotation, while leaving the original record unflagged and unlinked to the new record. Since the origin of public zoological and botanical specimen collections, an open system of cumulative annotation has evolved, whereby the original name is retained, but additional opinion is directly appended and used for filing and retrieval. This was needed as new specimens and analyses allowed for reevaluation of older specimens and the original depositors became unavailable. The time has come for the public sequence database to incorporate a community-curated, cumulative annotation process that allows third parties to improve the annotations of sequences when warranted by published peer-reviewed analyses (5).(undefined

Preserving accuracy in GenBank

GenBank, the public repository for nucleotide and protein sequences, is a critical resource for molecular biology, evolutionary biology, and ecology. While some attention has been drawn to sequence errors, common annotation errors also reduce the value of this database. In fact, for organisms such as fungi, which are notoriously difficult to identify, up to 20% of DNA sequence records may have erroneous lineage designations in GenBank. Gene function annotation in protein sequence databases is similarly error-prone. Because identity and function of new sequences are often determined by bioinformatic analyses, both types of errors are propagated into new accessions, leading to long-term degradation of the quality of the database. Currently, primary sequence data are annotated by the authors of those data, and can only be reannotated by the same authors. This is inefficient and unsustainable over the long term as authors eventually leave the field. Although it is possible to link third-party databases to GenBank records, this is a short-term solution that has little guarantee of permanence. Similarly, the current third-party annotation option in GenBank (TPA) complicates rather than solves the problem by creating an identical record with a new annotation, while leaving the original record unflagged and unlinked to the new record. Since the origin of public zoological and botanical specimen collections, an open system of cumulative annotation has evolved, whereby the original name is retained, but additional opinion is directly appended and used for filing and retrieval. This was needed as new specimens and analyses allowed for reevaluation of older specimens and the original depositors became unavailable. The time has come for the public sequence database to incorporate a community-curated, cumulative annotation process that allows third parties to improve the annotations of sequences when warranted by published peer-reviewed analyses.Fil: Bidartondo, Martin I.. Imperial College London; Reino Unido. Royal Botanic Gardens; Reino UnidoFil: Bruns, Thomas D.. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Blackwell, Meredith. Louisiana State University; Estados UnidosFil: Edwards, Ivan. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Taylor, Andy F. S.. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; SueciaFil: Bianchinotti, Maria Virginia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Centro de Recursos Naturales Renovables de la Zona Semiárida. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Centro de Recursos Naturales Renovables de la Zona Semiárida; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Padamsee, Mahajabeen. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: Callac, Philippe. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; FranciaFil: Lima, Nelson. Universidade do Minho; PortugalFil: White, Merlin M.. Boise State University; Estados UnidosFil: Barreau Daly, Camila. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; FranciaFil: Juncai, M. A.. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Buyck, Bart. Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle; FranciaFil: Rabeler, Richard K.. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Liles, Mark R.. Auburn University; Estados UnidosFil: Estes, Dwayne. Austin Peay State University; Estados UnidosFil: Carter, Richard. Valdosta State University; Estados UnidosFil: Herr Jr., J. M.. University of South Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Chandler, Gregory. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Kerekes, Jennifer. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Cruse Sanders, Jennifer. Salem College Herbarium; Estados UnidosFil: Galán Marquez, R.. Universidad de Alcalá; EspañaFil: Horak, Egon. Zurich Herbarium; SuizaFil: Fitzsimons, Michael. University of Chicago; Estados UnidosFil: Döering, Heidi. Royal Botanic Gardens; Reino UnidoFil: Yao, Su. China Center of Industrial Culture Collection; ChinaFil: Hynson, Nicole. University of California at Berkeley; Estados UnidosFil: Ryberg, Martin. University Goteborg; SueciaFil: Arnold, A. E.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Hughes, Karen. University of Tennessee; Estados Unido