Statistical Relations Between Intensity and Magnitude of Southeastern United States Earthquakes

The least squared, the major axis and the reduced major axis criterion are used to deduce a statistical relation between magnitude, mbLg, and intensity, I, for the earthquakes-in southeastern United States. Based on a catalog of 162 events during 1833 to 1987, with magnitudes between 1.1 and 6.9 and intensities between II and X, it is shown that the reduced major axis criterion produces: mbLg = (0.656 ± 0.058)*I + (0.402 ± 0.178), which is the best predictor equation of magnitude for the upper range of the observed intensities. The predictor equations based on the least squared and major axis criterion are: mbLg = (0.441 ± 0.038)*I + (1.359 ± 0.176) and mbLg = (0,544 ± 0.047)*I + (0.898 ± 0.424), respectively; the least squared equation is a better predictor for the lower range of the observations and the major axis equation yields predictions which are between the predictions from the other two equations. In mid-range of the observed data all three equations predict nearly the same results. A set of three similar equations are found between intensity, I, and magnitude mbLg. The effects of various conversion methods on values of a and b in the frequency-magnitude equation log N= a + b*mbLg and values of a\u27 and b\u27 in the frequency-intensity relation log N= a\u27 + b\u27*I are negligible. Three new catalogs, with 2245 events in each were formed; in the new catalogs if the intensity or the magnitude of an event was missing it was estimated based on the above equations; then, the least squared technique was used to calculate the coefficients a, b, a\u27, and b\u27; the unnormalized values of the coefficients are: a = 4.105 ± 0.144, b = -0.591 ± 0.035, a\u27 = 3.941 ± 0.199, and b\u27 = -0.400 ± 0.033, respectively

On the Linear Relation Between mb And Ms for Discrimination Between Explosions and Earthquakes

Summary. The statistical capability of the mb :Ms, discriminant for the discrimination of earthquake and explosion populations is examined by application of discriminant functions to a group of 83 explosions and 72 earthquakes in Eurasia. Equations are derived for the probability that an event is an earthquake or an explosion. The positive sign of DIS in the decision index equation, DIS, = 34.3383 - 11.9569 mbi, + 7.1 161 Msi, indicates that the event i is an earthquake. Its negative sign indicates that event i is an explosion. The probability of correct classification for an event, Pi, is reiated to its DISi, value, by Pi = [l t exp (DISi,)]-1, where a large, positive DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an earthquake and a large, negative DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an explosion. The discrimination line Ms = 1.680 mb ~ 4.825, or rnb = 0.595 Ms + 2.872 very successfully separates the explosion population from the earthquake population. The points on this line have an equal chance of being an earthquake or an explosion; moreover, for any event, the distance parallel to the Ms,-axis from the point representing that event in the mb:Ms, plane to this line is a measure of the probability for the correct classification of that event

Fault Movements and Tectonics of Eastern Iran: Boundaries of the Lut Plate

Summary. From 1977 March 21 to 1981 July 28, about 15 earthquakes with Ms ≥6.0 and many earthquakes with Ms≥4.5 have occurred in Iran. The upsurge of seismic activity started following the Khorqu earthquake of 1977 March 21, M,=7.0, south-east of the Fars folded series of Zagros. This shock had a thrust focal mechanism solution indicating the general northward movement of the Arabian plate with respect to the Iranian landmass. It was followed by six major damaging earthquakes in eastern Iran. The earthquakes are associated with extensive faulting which surrounds the Lut plate. (1) The Zarand earthquake of 1977 December, Ms=5.8, was associated with about 20 km of fault trace, severe mass wasting and about 20cm of right lateral movement. (2) The Tabas earthquake of 1978 September, Ms=7.7, with about 75 km of multiple thrust faulting and a maximum vertical displacement of 35cm. (3) The Kurizan earthquake of 1979 November, Ms=6.0, with more than 17 km of strike-slip fault trace and a maximum right-lateral displacement of 90cm and a vertical displacement of 60cm. (4) The Koli earthquake of 1979 November, Ms=7.1, with at least 65 km of fault trace and a maximum left-lateral displacement of 255 cm and a vertical displacement of 380cm. (5) Golbaf earthquakes of 1981 June, Ms=6.0 with at least 16 km of observed fault trace and a maximum vertical displacement of 15 cm. (6) The Chaharfarsang-Sirch earthquake of 1981 July, Ms=7.1, with about 70 km of discontinuous fault trace and 20cm of right-lateral motion and 15 cm of vertical motion. Portable networks of seismographic stations were deployed following each event. Results of aftershock studies are compared with field observations. The observed faults and aftershock zones appear to mark the broad deformational boundaries of the Lut plate

Possibility of trout farms efluent return to groundwater In non-agricultural seasons

This project is trying to investigate water contamination after use in ponds. For this aquaculture status, physical and chemical water properties, microbial pollutants and heavy metals levels in the some of trout ponds effluent in East Azerbaijan province were evaluated in 2007 to 2009. The information of groundwater and climate conditions in ten years, Drilling and wells piezometric Information, in local wells are reviewed. According to data obtained from analysis of water samples in the output pools range studied concentrations(term mg/l) some parameters are as follows:(BOD: 1.9-3.2), (COD: 3.4-34.1), (TSS: 26.6-42.7), (N-NO_2:0.003-.136),(P-Po4:0.0170.067), (pH:7.75-8.28). Electrical conductivity (500 ±2 to 1129±144 term µm/cm) in the effluent ponds. Based on the results of we can say that between input and effluent ponds in the review of all factors as chlorine, sulfate, sodium, potassium, total nitrogen, soluble phosphorus, total phosphorus, calcium, total hardness, magnesium, alkalinity and silica significant changes not be observed. Review of water analysis data to some factors (such as: water temperature, EC, pH, NO_2, CO_2, HCO_3, CO_3, DO, COD, BOD) and compare this data with the authorities standard confirmed that the All factors mentioned in effluent is allowed now. In terms of microbial contamination and heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Ca, Pb, Fe, Cr) is no pollution. Appropriate strategies for removing suspended materials must to use. We can use Watershed Management solutions to inject output water to the underground table. Should be noted status change (eg change in flow rate, an unusual increase in temperature, fish density increasing, reducing food quality, lack of appropriate management actions and ...) may reduce the effluent quality and the ability of injection water underground to lose. In this case, measures must be for wastewater treatment and improve the quality ponder

Global, regional and national burden of bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Introduction The current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors). Methods Various data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Results Globally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990–2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 100 000), while Lebanon had the highest age-standardised death rate (10.4 (8.1 to 13.7)). Cabo Verde had the highest increase in age-standardised incidence (284.2% (214.1 to 362.8)) and death rates (190.3% (139.3 to 251.1)) between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the global age-standardised incidence and death rates were higher among males than females, across all age groups and peaked in the 95+ age group. Globally, 36.8% (28.5 to 44.0) of bladder cancer DALYs were attributable to smoking, more so in males than females (43.7% (34.0 to 51.8) vs 15.2% (10.9 to 19.4)). In addition, 9.1% (1.9 to 19.6) of the DALYs were attributable to elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (males 9.3% (1.6 to 20.9); females 8.4% (1.6 to 19.1)). Conclusions There was considerable variation in the burden of bladder cancer between countries during the period 1990–2019. Although there was a clear global decrease in the age-standardised death, and DALY rates, some countries experienced an increase in these rates. National policy makers should learn from these differences, and allocate resources for preventative measures, based on their country-specific estimates. In addition, smoking and elevated FPG play an important role in the burden of bladder cancer and need to be addressed with prevention programmes.publishedVersio

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe