QUANTIFYING GAINS TO RISK DIVERSIFICATION USING CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE IN A MEAN-VARIANCE MODEL: AN APPLICATION TO FLORIDA CITRUS

The marginal benefit and cost of diversification for Florida orange producers is analyzed using certainty equivalents. Results indicate that for moderate and high levels of risk aversion, diversification into strawberry, grapefruit, or additional orange production is not optimal. However, moderately risk averse Florida orange producers can gain by diversifying into grapefruit production if the annual amortized fixed costs can be reduced by as little as 10 percent.Risk and Uncertainty,

Rating the Financial Health of U.S. Production Agriculture using Synthetic Credit Rating

Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics,

Spatial Distribution of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Sediment Cores from Blind Pass, St. Pete Beach, Florida

One hundred and one sediment cores were collected to characterize the spatial distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons within and just outside Blind Pass, St. Pete Beach, Florida. Twenty-five percent of the cores exhibited levels of petroleum hydrocarbons above detection limits of the gas chromatograph/flame ionization detector (GC/FID) (0.01 mg/Kg), but at generally low concentrations. Petroleum hydrocarbon speciation studies of these samples (gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy [GC/MS]) indicate above-detection level (1 μg/Kg) petroleum hydrocarbons are similar to the non-volatile petroleum hydrocarbons found in a Bouchard 155 reference sample collected after the 1993 oil spill in the area, but are in a much degraded and weathered state. Individual petroleum hydrocarbons were, in all but one case, below the threshold effective level (TEL) described in the literature (MacDonald, 1994). The petroleum hydrocarbons were primarily found at 100-300 cm depth in Blind Pass cores. Above-detection level petroleum hydrocarbons were generally found in samples from cores in the center of the channel, near the edges of the shoal, and just outside of Blind Pass. A second mixture of hydrocarbons, primarily phthalates, ketones, and ether, was found at relatively shallow core depths (0-99 cm) in the Mid- and North End Channel cores. These suggest a separate source of contamination, possibly storm water runoff. The fuel fluorescence detector (FFD) probe was investigated for its ability to detect petroleum hydrocarbons in marine sediments. When analyzed with the FFD, all sediments from the cores produced peaks of fluorescence, but none above the background levels of Blind Pass native sediments. All but two samples analyzed by GC/FID were below the detection limits (100 ppm) of the FFD. These samples were found in dark-colored sediments. The combination of the detection limits of the instrument, sediment color, and the degraded nature of the heavier weight petroleum hydrocarbons may have resulted in fluorescence outputs below background levels. These studies demonstrate that the distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons within Blind Pass sediments is generally low and patchy. However, 25% of the cores exhibited levels above detection using GC/FID/MS. These cores could be subjected to individual speciation studies which indicate generally below TEL levels and an association of some, but not all, with the 1993 oil spill in Blind Pass. Appendix A provides photographs and tables for sediment subsamples which exhibited total petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations above detection limits, while Appendix B presents the results from fuel fluorescence detector probe analyses. A discussion of the results of the study in relation to sediment quality guidelines and soil cleanup target level guidance documents is included as Appendix C. Some preliminary results using the above techniques on core samples from the nearby John’s Pass are presented in Appendix D

Boynton-Delray Coastal Water Quality Monitoring Program

This report discusses a sequence of six cruises in the vicinity of the Boynton-Delray (South Central) treated-wastewater plant outfall plume (26°27\u2743 N, 80°2\u2732 W), the Boynton Inlet (26°32\u2743 N, 80°2\u2730 W), and the Lake Worth Lagoon, Palm Beach County, Florida. The sampling cruises took place on June 5-6, 2007; August 28-29, 2007; October 18-19, 2007; February 14 and 18, 2008; May 19-20, 2008; and July 11-13, 2008. Water was sampled at 18 locations at the surface, middle, and near the seafloor (where there was sufficient depth) for a total of 45 samples; these samples were analyzed for a variety of nutrients and related parameters. The water sampling unit contained a conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) instrument from which data were obtained at each sampling site. Synchronal ocean current data were measured by a nearby acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) instrument. The inlet measurements were consistently lower in salinity and more acidic (lower in pH) than the coastal ocean and were warmer during the May and, especially, during the February cruises. For most analytes, viz., nitrite+nitrate (N+N), total suspended solids (TSS), chlorophyll-a, silica (Si), and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), the lagoon concentrations were significantly higher than the coastal ocean; the inlet concentrations appeared to be consistent with lagoon water with partial mixing with the coastal ocean, as expected. Estimates of the nutrient flux to the coastal ocean were computed: approximately 1,500 kg of dissolved nitrogen (N), 2,350 kg of silicate (Si), 33 kg of orthophosphate (P), and 59 kg of ammonium (NH4) per day were delivered to the coastal ocean through the inlet. The outfall boil at South Central outfall (the smallest in volume of the six outfalls in southeast Florida) is only visible under ideal conditions. In the six cruises described in this document, the outfall boil could be found in only one cruise (August 28-29, 2007). Elevated concentrations of nutrients (N+N, P, Si, and P) at the outfall vicinity were measured, and these concentrations decreased rapidly away from the outfall for most analytes, to become undistinguished from the background within 3 km or less. Not finding the boil, however, in five of six cruises meant that the waters with the highest concentrations were probably missed. When the boil was sampled in August 2007, N+N, P, and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentrations at the boil were roughly the same as from the inlet. For other analytes (chlorophyll-a, TSS, Si, and dissolved organic carbon [DOC]), the concentrations at or near the outfall were significantly less than those from the lagoon and inlet on most of the cruises. The coastal ocean appeared to be significantly impacted by the Boynton Inlet and less so from the inlet. A suggestion of a source to the south was seen in some analytes. Measurements from the Gulf Stream Reef area were the lowest in the study, and may provide “background” concentrations for this region. As expected, the coastal ocean was warmer and more stratified in the summer compared to the winter, e.g., whereas no thermocline was noted in the CTD data from February 2007, a strong thermocline was observed in most casts during July 2008. In certain cases (e.g., N+N in June 2007, pH in July 2008), an increase in the concentration (decrease for pH) from north to south implied a source from the south, e.g., the Boca Raton Inlet or Boca Raton outfall

Critical perspectives on ‘consumer involvement’ in health research: epistemological dissonance and the know-do gap

Researchers in the area of health and social care (both in Australia and internationally) are encouraged to involve consumers throughout the research process, often on ethical, political and methodological grounds, or simply as ‘good practice’. This paper presents findings from a qualitative study in the UK of researchers’ experiences and views of consumer involvement in health research. Two main themes are presented in the paper. Firstly, we explore the ‘know-do gap’ which relates to the tensions between researchers’ perceptions of the potential benefits of, and their actual practices in relation to, consumer involvement. Secondly, we focus on one of the reasons for this ‘know-do gap’, namely epistemological dissonance. Findings are linked to issues around consumerism in research, lay/professional knowledges, the (re)production of professional and consumer identities and the maintenance of boundaries between consumers and researchers

A multi-decade record of high quality fCO2 data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT)

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO2 values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.6 million fCO2 values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO2 values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO2 has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) “living data” publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014). Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here: doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.SOCAT_V3_GRID

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist