Real Exchange Rates and International Competitiveness of SAAR Countries: An Analysis of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka for 1960-2000

In an attempt to measure the intra and international trade competitiveness, we construct the indices of real exchange rate (RER), the conventional measure of competitiveness, for four major South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations using annual data for the period of 1960-2000. The objective of the study is to examine the performances of the sampled countries especially after the economic reforms through trade liberalisation that have been taken place under South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) and comparing the evolution in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Our empirical results reveal that in terms of intra regional trade the smaller countries, namely Bangladesh and Sri Lanka reap the higher gains from openness in their trade regime. However, Bangladesh and India gained international competitiveness not until mid 1990s. Movements of Real exchange rates for Pakistan and Sri Lanka indicate that trade liberalisation efforts did not seem to have much positive gain in terms of international trade.SAARC, SAPTA, SAFTA, Trading Bloc, Intra- and international Competitiveness, Real exchange rate, Openness in trade regime

India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Closed Doors to Open Souk

Abstract: Spectacular liberalisation of trade and investment policies opened the floodgate of capital flows in and out of India from the mid 1990s. This colossal capital flows facilitated the rapid economic growth and raised the country’s profile as one of the super powers in the region. The recent surge of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India has a significant balance of payments as well as enormous socio economic effect in securing the country’s position as a new economic power in the global context. Since the study on the OFDI is sparse, this paper attempts to contribute to the literature by examining the major determinants of OFDI from India using the cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model over 1970 and 2009. The results of our study indicate that the dramatic financial and trade liberalisation has instigated the gigantic outflow of investment and acquisition by India’s firms. Furthermore, the domestic economic environment including the growing human capital stocks, increasing international competitiveness, large influx of inflow of foreign capital and increased domestic savings are positively and significantly influencing India’s huge outward capital flows in recent decade. However, improvement in domestic technological capabilities, rising standard of living and increased interest rates are deterrents to the OFDI of the country in the long run. Granger causality test also indicates that while all the above mentioned independent variables are Granger causing OFDI, nevertheless, outward FDI does not Granger cause any of the factors determining the OFDI from India.Keywords: Inward FDI, Outward FDI, Economic Growth, India, Cointegration, VECM, Endogeniety test, Granger Causality Test

India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Closed Doors to Open Souk

Abstract: Spectacular liberalisation of trade and investment policies opened the floodgate of capital flows in and out of India from the mid 1990s. This colossal capital flows facilitated the rapid economic growth and raised the country’s profile as one of the super powers in the region. The recent surge of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India has a significant balance of payments as well as enormous socio economic effect in securing the country’s position as a new economic power in the global context. Since the study on the OFDI is sparse, this paper attempts to contribute to the literature by examining the major determinants of OFDI from India using the cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model over 1970 and 2009. The results of our study indicate that the dramatic financial and trade liberalisation has instigated the gigantic outflow of investment and acquisition by India’s firms. Furthermore, the domestic economic environment including the growing human capital stocks, increasing international competitiveness, large influx of inflow of foreign capital and increased domestic savings are positively and significantly influencing India’s huge outward capital flows in recent decade. However, improvement in domestic technological capabilities, rising standard of living and increased interest rates are deterrents to the OFDI of the country in the long run. Granger causality test also indicates that while all the above mentioned independent variables are Granger causing OFDI, nevertheless, outward FDI does not Granger cause any of the factors determining the OFDI from India

India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Closed Doors to Open Souk

Abstract: Spectacular liberalisation of trade and investment policies opened the floodgate of capital flows in and out of India from the mid 1990s. This colossal capital flows facilitated the rapid economic growth and raised the country’s profile as one of the super powers in the region. The recent surge of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India has a significant balance of payments as well as enormous socio economic effect in securing the country’s position as a new economic power in the global context. Since the study on the OFDI is sparse, this paper attempts to contribute to the literature by examining the major determinants of OFDI from India using the cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model over 1970 and 2009. The results of our study indicate that the dramatic financial and trade liberalisation has instigated the gigantic outflow of investment and acquisition by India’s firms. Furthermore, the domestic economic environment including the growing human capital stocks, increasing international competitiveness, large influx of inflow of foreign capital and increased domestic savings are positively and significantly influencing India’s huge outward capital flows in recent decade. However, improvement in domestic technological capabilities, rising standard of living and increased interest rates are deterrents to the OFDI of the country in the long run. Granger causality test also indicates that while all the above mentioned independent variables are Granger causing OFDI, nevertheless, outward FDI does not Granger cause any of the factors determining the OFDI from India

Macroeconomic impact of remittances and the Dutch Disease in a developing country

The magnitude of the flow of remittances to a developing country like Bangladesh and their rate of growth has become a significant factor in its economy. The huge flow of remittances affects the production sector and employment structure, as well as the scale of external trade competitiveness of the economy as measured by the real exchange rate (RER). Movement of the RER from its equilibrium position is very important and is also crucial in identifying the factors most influencing this movement. Using Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction models, this study has found that the flow of remittances is appreciating the RER and decreasing the external trade competitiveness of Bangladesh; thus, the procedure is slowly bringing about deterioration in the economy of Bangladesh, a process known as Dutch Disease. To counter this, a gradual relaxation of the trade barrier plus promotion of external trade diversification and diversion of the remittances flow from non-tradable sectors to priority investment areas will counteract the adverse consequences of remittances on the Bangladeshi economy in the long run

Demand for Money in the Selected OECD Countries: A Time Series Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 OECD countries. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results in the post-reforms sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased

Demand for Money in the Selected OECD Countries: A Time Series Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 OECD countries. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results in the post-reforms sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication