Simulation support for internet-based energy services

The rapidly developing Internet broadband network offers new opportunities for deploying a range of energy, environment and health-related services for people in their homes and workplaces. Several of these services can be enabled or enhanced through the application of building simulation. This paper describes the infrastructure for e-services under test within a European research project and shows the potential for simulation support for these services

Reducing energy demand: a review of issues, challenges and approaches

Most commentators expect improved energy efficiency and reduced energy demand to provide the dominant contribution to tackling global climate change. But at the global level, the correlation between increased wealth and increased energy consumption is very strong and the impact of policies to reduce energy demand is both limited and contested. Different academic disciplines approach energy demand reduction in different ways: emphasising some mechanisms and neglecting others, being more or less optimistic about the potential for reducing energy demand and providing insights that are more or less useful for policymakers. This article provides an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with energy demand reduction, summarises how this challenge is ‘framed’ by key academic disciplines, indicates how these can provide complementary insights for policymakers and argues that a ‘sociotechnical’ perspective can provide a deeper understanding of the nature of this challenge and the processes through which it can be achieved. The article integrates ideas from the natural sciences, economics, psychology, innovation studies and sociology but does not give equal weight to each. It argues that reducing energy demand will prove more difficult than is commonly assumed and current approaches will be insufficient to deliver the transformation required

New artificial neural network prediction method for electrical consumption forecasting based on building end-uses

Due to the current high energy prices it is essential to find ways to take advantage of new energy resources and enable consumers to better understand their load curve. This understanding will help to improve customer flexibility and their ability to respond to price or other signals from the electricity market. In this scenario, one of the most important steps is to carry out an accurate calculation of the expected consumption curve, i.e. the baseline. Subsequently, with a proper baseline, customers can participate in demand response programs and verify performed actions. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) method for short-term prediction of total power consumption in buildings with several independent processes. This problem has been widely discussed in recent literature but a new point of view is proposed. The method is based on two fundamental features: total consumption forecast based on independent processes of the considered load or end-uses; and an adequate selection of the training data set in order to simplify the ANN architecture. Validation of the method has been performed with the prediction of the whole consumption expressed as 96 active energy quarter-hourly values of the Universitat Politcnica de Valncia, a commercial customer consuming 11,500 kW. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This research work has been possible with the support of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia (Spain) with grant #CE 19990032.Escrivá-Escrivá, G.; Álvarez Bel, CM.; Roldán Blay, C.; Alcázar-Ortega, M. (2011). New artificial neural network prediction method for electrical consumption forecasting based on building end-uses. Energy and Buildings. 43(11):3112-3119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.08.008S31123119431

Upgrade of an artificial neural network prediction method for electrical consumption forecasting using an hourly temperature curve model

This paper presents the upgrading of a method for predicting short-term building energy consumption that was previously developed by the authors (EUs method). The upgrade uses a time temperature curve (TTC) forecast model. The EUs method involves the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for predicting each independent process end-uses (EUs). End-uses consume energy with a specific behaviour in function of certain external variables. The EUs method obtains the total consumption by the addition of the forecasted end-uses. The inputs required for this method are the parameters that may affect consumption, such as temperature, type of day, etc. Historical data of the total consumption and the consumption of each end-use are also required. A model for prediction of the time temperature curve has been developed for the new forecast method (TEUs method). The temperature at each moment of the day is obtained using the prediction of the maximum and minimum daytime temperature. This provides various benefits when selecting the training days and in the training and forecasting phases, thus improving the relationship between expected consumption and temperatures. The method has been tested and validated with the consumption forecast of the Universitat Politècnica de València for an entire year.This research work has been possible with the support of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia (Spain) with grant #CE 19990032.Roldán Blay, C.; Escrivá-Escrivá, G.; Álvarez Bel, CM.; Roldán Porta, C.; Rodriguez-Garcia, J. (2013). Upgrade of an artificial neural network prediction method for electrical consumption forecasting using an hourly temperature curve model. Energy and Buildings. 60:38-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.12.009S38466

Authoritative subspecies diagnosis tool for European honey bees based on ancestryinformative SNPs

Background With numerous endemic subspecies representing four of its five evolutionary lineages, Europe holds a large fraction of Apis mellifera genetic diversity. This diversity and the natural distribution range have been altered by anthropogenic factors. The conservation of this natural heritage relies on the availability of accurate tools for subspecies diagnosis. Based on pool-sequence data from 2145 worker bees representing 22 populations sampled across Europe, we employed two highly discriminative approaches (PCA and F-ST) to select the most informative SNPs for ancestry inference. Results Using a supervised machine learning (ML) approach and a set of 3896 genotyped individuals, we could show that the 4094 selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) provide an accurate prediction of ancestry inference in European honey bees. The best ML model was Linear Support Vector Classifier (Linear SVC) which correctly assigned most individuals to one of the 14 subspecies or different genetic origins with a mean accuracy of 96.2% +/- 0.8 SD. A total of 3.8% of test individuals were misclassified, most probably due to limited differentiation between the subspecies caused by close geographical proximity, or human interference of genetic integrity of reference subspecies, or a combination thereof. Conclusions The diagnostic tool presented here will contribute to a sustainable conservation and support breeding activities in order to preserve the genetic heritage of European honey bees.The SmartBees project was funded by the European Commission under its FP7 KBBE programme (2013.1.3-02, SmartBees Grant Agreement number 613960) https://ec.europa.eu/research/fp7.MP was supported by a Basque Government grant (IT1233-19). The funders provided the financial support to the research, but had no role in the design of the study, analysis, interpretations of data and in writing the manuscript

Machine learning for estimation of building energy consumption and performance:a review

Ever growing population and progressive municipal business demands for constructing new buildings are known as the foremost contributor to greenhouse gasses. Therefore, improvement of energy eciency of the building sector has become an essential target to reduce the amount of gas emission as well as fossil fuel consumption. One most eective approach to reducing CO2 emission and energy consumption with regards to new buildings is to consider energy eciency at a very early design stage. On the other hand, ecient energy management and smart refurbishments can enhance energy performance of the existing stock. All these solutions entail accurate energy prediction for optimal decision making. In recent years, articial intelligence (AI) in general and machine learning (ML) techniques in specic terms have been proposed for forecasting of building energy consumption and performance. This paperprovides a substantial review on the four main ML approaches including articial neural network, support vector machine, Gaussian-based regressions and clustering, which have commonly been applied in forecasting and improving building energy performance

Multifractal analysis of high-frequency temperature time series in the urban environment

Continuous monitoring systems have been regarded as a very useful tool to provide continuous high-frequency measurements of many parameters. Here, we analyze high-frequency time series of air temperature measurements, recorded every 10 min during 2003 in Athens (Greece) by an online monitoring system for the urban environment. We propose a set of time series analysis techniques, where missing data are well respected and information concerning the system's dynamics is preserved. A power spectral density analysis is performed over time scales spanning from 10 min to several days. A scale-invariant behavior of the form E( f ) ≈ f-β is revealed for scales below 9 h. Over this scaling range, we have performed structure functions analysis, and shown that air temperature data exhibit turbulent-like intermittent properties with multi-fractal statistics. The multifractal exponents obtained possess some similarities with passive scalar turbulence results. Although we illustrate the proposed approach using air temperature data, the method can be used as an efficient tool to analyse other environmental parameters monitored in urban environment. © 2018 by the authors

Multifractal Analysis of High-Frequency Temperature Time Series in the Urban Environment

Continuous monitoring systems have been regarded as a very useful tool to provide continuous high-frequency measurements of many parameters. Here, we analyze high-frequency time series of air temperature measurements, recorded every 10 min during 2003 in Athens (Greece) by an online monitoring system for the urban environment. We propose a set of time series analysis techniques, where missing data are well respected and information concerning the system’s dynamics is preserved. A power spectral density analysis is performed over time scales spanning from 10 min to several days. A scale-invariant behavior of the form E ( f ) ≈ f − β is revealed for scales below 9 h. Over this scaling range, we have performed structure functions analysis, and shown that air temperature data exhibit turbulent-like intermittent properties with multi-fractal statistics. The multifractal exponents obtained possess some similarities with passive scalar turbulence results. Although we illustrate the proposed approach using air temperature data, the method can be used as an efficient tool to analyse other environmental parameters monitored in urban environment