An International Comparison of Productivity Change in Agriculture and the Economy as a Whole

A common and longstanding assumption in the economic growth literature has been that total factor productivity growth is lower in the agriculture sector than in the rest of the economy. Using a stochastic production frontier finite mixture model, labor productivity change is decomposed into catch-up, technological change and factor accumulation effects and stochastic shocks. This decomposition is investigated separately in the agriculture sector and the economy as a whole using a balanced panel data set of 45 countries in different development stages during the time period 1967-1992. The impact of labor productivity change components on the evolution of the cross-country counterfactual distribution of labor productivity is also analyzed. For the overall economy, the empirical results indicate that growth and the twin-peak distribution of labor productivity are driven by capital deepening. However, the results for the agriculture sector suggest that labor productivity distribution is brought by total factor productivity changes rather than factor accumulation. Furthermore, the agriculture sector exhibits reductions in capital per worker as well as stronger catch-up and technological change effects. Thus, growth of the rest of the economy appears to owe more to capital deepening and resource reallocation from agriculture than to faster productivity change.Agriculture, Labor Productivity Growth, Catch-Up, Total Factor Productivity, Factor Accumulation, Panel data, Stochastic Production Frontier, Finite Mixture Model.

Alcohol Consumption and Binge Drinking Among Young Adults Aged 20–30 Years in Lisbon, Portugal

Background: Over the past decade, the changes to the pattern of alcohol consumption in Portugal, in particular among young people with heavy episodic drinking (binge drinking), are well documented. However, there are limited studies in individuals aged between 20 and 30 years, which is an important period of transition into adulthood where binge drinking can negatively influence the resolution of developmental tasks. Therefore, this study aims at analyzing the pattern of alcohol consumption and binge drinking among young adults aged between 20 and 30 years living in the municipality of Lisbon. Methodology: This is a quantitative, descriptive correlational study using a convenience sample composed of 259 individuals. We used the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for data collection. Results: Among the sampled subjects, 19.3% of them reported being nondrinkers. Among the alcohol-drinking subjects (N = 209), 61.3% reported binge drinking behaviors. We found a higher percentage of binge drinkers among vocational training students than among university students, as well as a relatively higher percentage of women. In both cases, we found no statistically significant differences. Within the total sample, 10.8% reported hazardous or harmful consumption, with men showing greater hazardous consumption. Conclusions: Although approximately one fifth of the sampled subjects reported being nondrinkers, the percentage of binge drinkers in this study was significantly higher than that reported in other studies. We also found that binge drinking is more common among vocational training students, although this difference was not statistically significant. Further studies are needed on this age group and in nonacademic settings

Cash flow forecast for South African firms

This paper applies models in the extant literature that have been used to forecast operating cash flows to predict the cash flows of South African firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Out-of-sample performance is examined for each model and compared between them. The reported results show that some accrual terms, i.e. depreciation and changes in inventory do not enhance cash flow prediction for the average South African firm in contrast to the reported results of studies in USA and Australia. Inclusion of more explanatory variables does not necessarily improve the models, according to the out-of-sample results. The paper proposes the application of moving average model in panel data, and vector regressive model for multi-period-ahead prediction of cash flows for South Africa firms

assessing the effects of the new expected credit losses model on the economy

During disturbing financial times, the economy suffers from the lack of provisioning that companies exhibit. Under IFRS 9, regulators intend to mitigate this issue. The following research project provides evidence regarding the interactions between the Economic Cycle, Loans and Provisions plus the adverse effect of the latter on regulatory capital. Moreover, using an empirical approach, it updates existing literature regarding the influence provisions have on the upward and downward movements of the business cycles. Overall, the new standard may contribute to the stability of the economy but is dependent on its consistent and rigorous application by bank