Wind simulations for use in local avalanche forecasting

Quantification of release probabilities in local avalanche forecasting are depending on knowledge of historical weather characteristics as well as detailed knowledge of the wind driven snow distribution on a fine scale. In WP5 we have computed extreme weather statistics for snow and other related parameters for historical and future climates at 1 km2 resolution (2), and prepared gridded regional scale wind data for use in statistics together with historical gridded data (3). Within each 1x1 km grid cell wind is the dominant factor determining snow distribution in the terrain. Simple terrain indexes as well as a complex fluid dynamic (CFD) model have been tested and evaluated with respect to performance in modelling wind fields (4), determine snow distribution (4.7) and potential release areas (4.8). Several scripts and tools have been developed along this study with the aim of establishing an improved toolbox for avalanche forecasting on a local scale.Norges vassdrags- og energidirektora

Modelling of permafrost in Norway using two equilibrium models

Den forespeilede klimaoppvarmingen vil sansynligvis føre til en vesentlig endring i permafrosttemperaturer. Oppvarming og tining av permafrost kan medføre ustabilitet i fjellvegger og bratte skråninger, samt endring i overflatehydrologien. Kunnskap om romlige fordeling og temperatur i permafrosten er avgjørende for å forstå relaterte geomorfologiske prosesser. I dette studiet er permafrostfordeling modellert på regional skala for fastlands Norge, med 1km2 oppløsning. To likevektsmodeller, opprinnelig utviklet for lavlands Arktisk permafrost, er tilpasset Norge. Dette er første gang bakketemperaturer er modellert på regional skala for Norge ved å ta hensyn til egenskaper i både bakkematerialer, vegetasjon og snødekke. Modellene er kjørt med daglige griddede lufttemperaturer, snødybder og snøvannekvivalent, for perioden 1957 til 2010. Modellresultater for perioden 1981–2010 er i svært god overensstemmelse med observerte bakketemperaturer målt i borehull, samt permafrostfordeling basert på BTS-sannsynlighetskart. Studiet demonstrerer at denne typen modeller er svært egnet også for fjellområder. Rekonstruerte lufttemperaturserier tilbake til 10 000BP er brukt til å modellere historiske permafrostutbredelser, med særlig vekt på den lille istiden og Holocene klimatisk optimum. I henhold til modellresultatene har omtrent 6% av dagens landareal i Norge permafrost. Beregnet permafrostutbredelse for den lille istiden er 15%, mens permafrost overlevde Holocene klimatisk optimum i 1% av fastland Norge. Fremtidige simuleringer antyder at permafrost vil bli nærmest fraværende (0,2%) med klimaet forespeilet for 2071-2100, gitt det valgte A2 scenrioet

I gode hender : Intervju med mor og far som har erfart katastrofekeisersnitt

Bakgrunn Et katastrofekeisersnitt kan være livstruende for mor og barn. Situasjonen kan virke kaotisk med et stort team tilstede med mange aktiviteter og høyt tempo. Det er liten grense mellom liv og død og teamet har få sekunder til rådighet. Den manglende kunnskap om hvordan mor og far erfarer situasjonen er bakgrunn for å arbeide med denne tematikken. Hensikt Hensikten med studien er å få mors og fars beskrivelser av hvordan de erfarer samhandlingen med teamet etter beslutning om katastrofekeisersnitt. Design Oppgaven er en kvalitativ studie med en utforskende/ beskrivende design. Datasamlingen var 16 forskningsintervjuer, åtte med mor og åtte med far separat i deres hjem, en måned etter katastrofekeisersnittet. Det empiriske materialet ble analysert etter meningsfortetting innenfor en fortolkende tradisjon. Teoretisk perspektiv Den teoretiske referanserammen er i hovedsak hentet fra Lazarus & Folkmans (1984) stressteori, som beskriver stressbegrepet og egenskaper ved situasjonen. Brudals (2000) perinatalpsykologi beskriver egenskaper ved mor og far. Teamets samhandling med mor og far i akuttsituasjonen er definert som et ”sykepleiefenomen” av Kim (2000). Resultater Mødrene erfarer et sterkt fokus på å redde livet barnets liv. Hendelser rundt henne som ikke støtter fokus blir tåkelagt. Fedrene må omstille seg til stadig skiftende situasjoner og uventede emosjoner. Både mødre og fedre erfarer et team som kan beskrives som høyekspertise. De erfarer at de føler seg i ”gode hender” fordi teamet er tydelige, rolige, fokuserte, i forkant av situasjonen og at de gir seg tid. Disse kvalitatsparametrene indikerer at teamet har kontroll, at de gir god ivaretakelse og god informasjon. Konklusjon Mors og fars beskrivelse av teamet var svært positiv en måned etter keisersnittet. Tidspunktet for datasamlingen kan ha innvirket på resultatet og det anbefales oppfølging med en longitudinal studie etter tre, seks og 12 måneder. Kvalitetsparametrene underbygger eksisterende praksis, men forbedringer kan gjøres i forhold til informasjon. Nøkkelord: Akutt og katastrofekeisersnitt, fedre, mødre, PTSD, samhandling, sykepleier

Research Plan 2020–2022

Snow avalanches are a significant natural hazard and common phenomenon in Norway. Each year, avalanches result in fatalities, evacuations, and interruptions or damage to infrastructure networks such as roads, railways, and electrical transmission lines. Persistent avalanche hazard in steep terrain is a major factor considered during land-use planning and development. During the snow season, daily or weekly variations in the avalanche danger identified in regional and applied bulletins influence the operation of transportation networks. Applied research on avalanches and their societal impacts has been conducted at the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) since 1973. This research has been funded in part by an annual grant from the Norwegian parliament, administered by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE – Norges vassdrags- og energi-direktorat). Recent research activities have improved our understanding of avalanche formation, movement, and impacts. Enhanced knowledge of the individual processes leading to avalanche initiation, avalanche dynamics, and avalanche impacts has been applied to developing tools to help predict avalanche occurrence, runout distance, and impact pressures. While much has been accomplished within the avalanche research community in recent years, many key questions remain. This project plan: (1) presents the research goals for the 2020-2022 period, (2) outlines the projects organization – including potential for external collaboration, and (3) presents the work-package structure and specific research tasks to be undertaken by the applied avalanche research group at NGI over the next three years.NVE (Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat

Research Plan 2023–2025

Snow avalanches are a frequent and significant natural hazard in Norway. Each year, avalanche events result in fatalities, evacuations, interruptions, and damage to infrastructure networks such as roads, railways, and electrical transmission lines. This combines to a substantial impact on the livelihoods of the people living and working in mountainous areas or also along the fjords in Norway. Persistent avalanche hazard in steep terrain is a major factor considered during land-use planning and development. During the snow season, variations in the avalanche danger identified in regional and site-specific bulletins influence the operation of the transportation networks and the safety of workers in these areas. Applied research on avalanches and their societal impacts has been conducted at the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) since 1973. The year 2023 will mark the 50 years anniversary of this research project. The research has been funded in part by an annual grant from the Norwegian parliament administered by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). Recent research activities have improved our understanding of avalanche formation, movement and impacts from avalanches. For example, enhanced knowledge of the individual processes leading to avalanche initiation, avalanche dynamics and avalanche impacts have been applied to develop tools for prediction of avalanche events, runout distance and impact pressures. While much has been accomplished within the avalanche research community in recent years, many key questions remain. Research in this area becomes increasingly important as a changing climate will vary the frequency and behaviour of avalanche events. In addition, the transfer of resent research outcomes into common practise is an ongoing challenge which needs continuous attention. This project plan will: Present the research goals for the 2023–2025 period. Outline the project organisation. Present the work-package structure and specific research tasks to be undertaken by the applied avalanche research group at NGI over the next three years.NVE (Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat

Variations in near‐surface debris temperature through the summer monsoon on Khumbu Glacier, Nepal Himalaya

Debris surface temperature is a function of debris characteristics and energy fluxes at the debris surface. However, spatial and temporal variability in debris surface temperature, and the debris properties that control it, are poorly constrained. Here, near‐surface debris temperature (Ts) is reported for 16 sites across the lower elevations of Khumbu Glacier, Nepal Himalaya, for the 2014 monsoon season. The debris layer at all sites was ≥1 m thick. We confirm the occurrence of temporal and spatial variability in Ts over a 67‐day period and investigate its controls. Ts was found to exhibit marked temporal fluctuations on diurnal, short‐term (1–8 days) and seasonal timescales. Over the study period, two distinct diurnal patterns in Ts were identified that varied in timing, daily amplitude and maximum temperature; days in the latter half of the study period (after Day of Year 176) exhibited a lower diurnal amplitude (mean = 23°C) and reduced maximum temperatures. Days with lower amplitude and minimum Ts were concurrent with periods of increased seasonal variability in on‐glacier air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation, with the increased frequency of these periods attributed to increasing cloud cover as the monsoon progressed. Spatial variability in Ts was manifested in variability of diurnal amplitude and maximum Ts of 7°C to 47°C between sites. Local slope, debris clast size and lithology were identified as the most important drivers of spatial variability in Ts, with inclusion of these three variables in the stepwise general linear models resulting in R2 ≥0.89 for six out of the seven sites. The complexity of surface energy fluxes and their influence on Ts highlight that assuming a simplified relationship between air temperature and debris surface temperature in glacier melt models, and a direct relationship between debris surface temperature and debris thickness for calculating supraglacial debris thickness, should be undertaken with caution

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 +/- 2.8 x 10(6) km(2). This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.Peer reviewe

Musculoskeletal pain in relation to risk of disability pension, and the possible modifying role of physical workload and work satisfaction : prospective data from the HUNT Study, Norway

Musculoskeletal pain is a significant cause of years lived with disability, and expenses of examination and treatment, reduced work ability, sickness absence and disability benefits are considerable. A better understanding of work-related factors that can modify the association between pain and disability is essential, in order to develop effective preventive strategies. The aim of the current study was to examine the independent effects of musculoskeletal pain, physical workload and work satisfaction on risk for disability pension, as well as the possible modifying role of physical workload and work satisfaction on the relation between musculoskeletal pain and disability pension risk. Data on 44 713 individuals, originating from the second wave of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT2, 1995-97), was linked to a national registry on incident disability pension from Statistics Norway (FD-trygd, follow-up through 2007). We used Cox regression analyses to estimate adjusted relative risks (RRs) of disability pension associated with musculoskeletal pain and work-related factors. Precision of the estimated associations was assessed by 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Additionally, tests of statistical interaction (i.e., deviation from multiplicativity or additivity) were conducted, to explore possible synergistic effects. During the 10-year follow-up, 6764 individuals (15.1 %) became recipients of disability pension. Chronic musculoskeletal pain was strongly associated with risk of disability pension (males: RR 2.06, 95% CI 1.90-2.24; females: RR 2.59, 95% CI 2.40-2.79), and activity-interfering pain increased the risk even further. The independent effects of physical workload and work satisfaction were modest; however, individuals who concurrently experienced chronic pain and had heavy physical work or low work satisfaction were at the highest risk of disability pension. For males and females with pain and heavy physical work, RRs and 95% CIs were 2.60 (2.24-3.02) and 3.37 (2.88-3.95), respectively. For the joint effects of pain and low work satisfaction, RRs and 95% CIs were 2.98 (2.34-3.79) for males and 3.29 (2.67-4.07) for females. Despite the strong associations, there were no statistically significant interaction between these factors, based on p-values from the multiplicative test and RERI estimates with 95% CIs from the additive test. In conclusion, musculoskeletal pain is positively associated with disability pension risk, and work-related factors such as physical workload and work satisfaction may contribute to a further amplification of this risk. Persons with musculoskeletal pain exposed to heavy physical work, or with low work satisfaction, should be given special attention to prevent early work disability

Systematisk arbeid med ord- og begrepslæring blant flerspråklige elever. En kvalitativ undersøkelse av tre elevers erfaringer.

Formålet med denne masteroppgaven har vært å undersøke hvilke erfaringer et utvalg flerspråklige elever har til systematisk arbeid med ord- og begrepslæring. Jeg ønsket å få innsikt i hvordan elevene har opplevd arbeidsmåtene som har blitt anvendt i det systematiske arbeidet, hvilket læringsutbytte de opplever å sitte igjen med etter arbeidet, og hvilke læringsstrategier de bruker i andre situasjoner der de møter nye ord og begreper. I tillegg valgte jeg å inkludere modellen som det systematiske arbeidet med ord- og begrepslæring baserte seg på, for å få en mer inngående forståelse for undersøkelses-området. Basert på problemstillingen har studien en kvalitativ tilnærming, hvor intervjuer med tre flerspråklige elever er primærmetoden, og den teoretiske analysen av undervisningsmodellen er sekundærmetoden. Oppgavens teoretiske rammeverk baserer seg på litteratur om ordforråd og ordkunnskap, og med bakgrunn i undersøkelsesområdet vektlegges andrespråksperspektivet særlig tungt. I tillegg står teori om ordlæring og ordlæringsstrategier sentralt, samt didaktiske innganger til arbeid med ord- og begreps-læring i skolen. Funnene fra undersøkelsen viser at elevene har positive erfaringer til det systematiske arbeidet med ord- og begrepslæring som baserer seg på undervisningsmodellen. Flere av arbeidsmåtene blir trukket frem som givende, og i tillegg vektlegges det sosiale ved undervisningen som noe særlig positivt. Videre tyder funnene på at elevene har opplevd et økt læringsutbytte som følge av undervisningen, og på at de benytter seg av kommunikative/sosiale strategier for å oppnå forståelse når de møter nye ord/begreper i andre situasjoner. Når det gjelder undervisningsmodellen viser analysen at den på mange måter kan sies å egne seg godt i arbeid med ord- og begrepslæring med flerspråklige elever. Likevel må det understrekes at det er avgjørende at lærere som velger å benytte seg av modellen i dette henseende har god kunnskap om flerspråklighet og flerspråklig utvikling. Dette er en forutsetning for å kunne tilpasse arbeid som baserer seg på modellen til elevenes forutsetninger