Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico

The native population collapse in 16th century Mexico was a demographic catastrophe with one of the highest death rates in history. Recently developed tree-ring evidence has allowed the levels of precipitation to be reconstructed for north central Mexico, adding to the growing body of epidemiologic evidence and indicating that the 1545 and 1576 epidemics of cocoliztli (Nahuatl for "pest”) were indigenous hemorrhagic fevers transmitted by rodent hosts and aggravated by extreme drought conditions

Murine Typhus in Child, Yucatan, Mexico

A case of murine typhus in Yucatan was diagnosed in a child with nonspecific signs and symptoms. The finding of Rickettsia typhi increases the number of Rickettsia species identified in Yucatan and shows that studies are needed to determine the prevalence and incidence of rickettsioses in Mexico

Equation-Free Multiscale Computational Analysis of Individual-Based Epidemic Dynamics on Networks

The surveillance, analysis and ultimately the efficient long-term prediction and control of epidemic dynamics appear to be one of the major challenges nowadays. Detailed atomistic mathematical models play an important role towards this aim. In this work it is shown how one can exploit the Equation Free approach and optimization methods such as Simulated Annealing to bridge detailed individual-based epidemic simulation with coarse-grained, systems-level, analysis. The methodology provides a systematic approach for analyzing the parametric behavior of complex/ multi-scale epidemic simulators much more efficiently than simply simulating forward in time. It is shown how steady state and (if required) time-dependent computations, stability computations, as well as continuation and numerical bifurcation analysis can be performed in a straightforward manner. The approach is illustrated through a simple individual-based epidemic model deploying on a random regular connected graph. Using the individual-based microscopic simulator as a black box coarse-grained timestepper and with the aid of Simulated Annealing I compute the coarse-grained equilibrium bifurcation diagram and analyze the stability of the stationary states sidestepping the necessity of obtaining explicit closures at the macroscopic level under a pairwise representation perspective

Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in 66 Large Cities in the United States in Years Surrounding the 1918 Pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman r = 0.64–0.72; P,0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (r = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ,0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods

Clinical Prediction Rule for Stratifying Risk of Pulmonary Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampin, is a worldwide problem.To develop a clinical prediction rule to stratify risk for MDR-TB among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.Derivation and internal validation of the rule among adult patients prospectively recruited from 37 health centers (Perú), either a) presenting with a positive acid-fast bacillus smear, or b) had failed therapy or had a relapse within the first 12 months.Among 964 patients, 82 had MDR-TB (prevalence, 8.5%). Variables included were MDR-TB contact within the family, previous tuberculosis, cavitary radiologic pattern, and abnormal lung exam. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) was 0.76. Selecting a cut-off score of one or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 72.6%, specificity of 62.8%, likelihood ratio (LR) positive of 1.95, and LR negative of 0.44. Similarly, selecting a cut-off score of two or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 60.8%, specificity of 87.5%, LR positive of 4.85, and LR negative of 0.45. Finally, selecting a cut-off score of three or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 45.1%, specificity of 95.3%, LR positive of 9.56, and LR negative of 0.58.A simple clinical prediction rule at presentation can stratify risk for MDR-TB. If further validated, the rule could be used for management decisions in resource-limited areas

P2X4 receptor function in the nervous system and current breakthroughs in pharmacology

ATP is a well-known extracellular signalling molecule and neurotransmitter known to activate purinergic P2X receptors. Information has been elucidated about the structure and gating of P2X channels following the determination of the crystal structure of P2X4 (zebrafish), however there is still much to discover regarding the role of this receptor in the central nervous system (CNS). In this review we provide an overview of what is known about P2X4 expression in the CNS and discuss evidence for pathophysiological roles in neuroinflammation and neuropathic pain. Recent advances in the development of pharmacological tools including selective antagonists (5-BDBD, PSB-12062, BX430) and positive modulators (ivermectin, avermectins, divalent cations) of P2X4 will be discussed

Host–Parasite interactions in Entamoeba histolytica and Entamoeba dispar: what have we learned from their genomes?

Invasive amoebiasis caused by Entamoeba histolytica is a major global health problem. Virulence is a rare outcome of infection, occurring in fewer than 1 in 10 infections. Not all strains of the parasite are equally virulent, and understanding the mechanisms and causes of virulence is an important goal of Entamoeba research. The sequencing of the genome of E. histolytica and the related avirulent species Entamoeba dispar has allowed whole-genome-scale analyses of genetic divergence and differential gene expression to be undertaken. These studies have helped elucidate mechanisms of virulence and identified genes differentially expressed in virulent and avirulent parasites. Here, we review the current status of the E. histolytica and E. dispar genomes and the findings of a number of genome-scale studies comparing parasites of different virulence