Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes

An integrated assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Indiana forests

Forests provide myriad ecosystem services, many of which are vital to local and regional economies. Consequently, there is a need to better understand how predicted changes in climate will impact forests dynamics and the implications of such changes for society as a whole. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on Indiana forests, which are representative of many secondary growth broadleaved forests in the greater Midwest region in terms of their land use history and current composition. We find that predicted changes in climate for the state – warmer and wetter winters/springs and hotter and potentially drier summers – will dramatically shape forest communities, resulting in new assemblages of trees and wildlife that differ from forest communities of the past or present. Overall, suitable habitat is expected to decline for 17-29 percent of tree species and increase for 43-52 percent of tree species in the state, depending on the region and climate scenario. Such changes have important consequences for wildlife that depend on certain tree species or have ranges with strong sensitivities to climate. Additionally, these changes will have potential economic impacts on Indiana industries that depend on forest resources and products (both timber and non-timber). Finally, we offer some practical suggestions on how management may minimize the extent of climate-induced ecological impacts, and highlight a case study from a tree planting initiative currently underway in the Patoka River National Wildlife Refuge and Management Area

Indiana\u27s Future Forests: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

Over the next century, rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns across the Midwest will likely have profound consequences for Indiana’s forests. Such changes include shifts in the distributions and abundances of trees, understory plants and wildlife, as well as changes to the environmental, economic and cultural benefits these forests provide. This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) examines the direct and indirect impacts that climate change is expected to have on Indiana’s forests. The report specifically addresses forest regeneration, forest composition, tree growth and harvest, wildlife habitat and forest products

High prevalence of lipoatrophy in pre-pubertal South African children on antiretroviral therapy : a cross-sectional study

Publication of this article was funded by the Stellenbosch University Open Access Fund.The original publication is available at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpediatrBackground: Despite changes in WHO guidelines, stavudine is still used extensively for treatment of pediatric HIV in the developing world. Lipoatrophy in sub-Saharan African children can be stigmatizing and have far-reaching consequences. The severity and extent of lipoatrophy in pre-pubertal children living in sub-Saharan Africa is unknown. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, children who were 3-12 years old, on antiretroviral therapy and pre-pubertal were recruited from a Family HIV Clinic in South Africa. Lipoatrophy was identified and graded by consensus between two HIV pediatricians using a standardized grading scale. A professional dietician performed formal dietary assessment and anthropometric measurements of trunk and limb fat. Previous antiretroviral exposures were recorded. In a Dual-Energy X-ray Absorbtiometry (DXA) substudy body composition was determined in 42 participants. Results: Among 100 recruits, the prevalence of visually obvious lipoatrophy was 36% (95% CI: 27%–45%). Anthropometry and DXA measurements corroborated the clinical diagnosis of lipoatrophy: Both confirmed significant, substantial extremity fat loss in children with visually obvious lipoatrophy, when adjusted for age and sex. Adjusted odds ratio for developing lipoatrophy was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.3 - 2.9) for each additional year of accumulated exposure to standard dose stavudine. Cumulative time on standard dose stavudine was significantly associated with reductions in biceps and triceps skin-fold thickness (p=0.008). Conclusions: The prevalence of visually obvious lipoatrophy in pre-pubertal South African children on antiretroviral therapy is high. The amount of stavudine that children are exposed to needs review. Resources are needed to enable low-and-middle-income countries to provide suitable pediatric-formulated alternatives to stavudine-based pediatric regimens. The standard stavudine dose for children may need to be reduced. Diagnosis of lipoatrophy at an early stage is important to allow timeous antiretroviral switching to arrest progression and avoid stigmatization. Diagnosis using visual grading requires training and experience, and DXA and comprehensive anthropometry are not commonly available. A simple objective screening tool is needed to identify early lipoatrophy in resourcelimited settings where specialized skills and equipment are not available.Stellenbosch University Open Access FundPublishers' versio

Design considerations in a sib-pair study of linkage for susceptibility loci in cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Modern approaches to identifying new genes associated with disease allow very fine analysis of associaton and can be performed in population based case-control studies. However, the sibpair design is still valuable because it requires few assumptions other than acceptably high penetrance to identify genetic loci.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted simulation studies to assess the impact of design factors on relative efficiency for a linkage study of colorectal cancer. We considered two test statistics, one comparing the mean IBD probability in affected pairs to its null value of 0.5, and one comparing the mean IBD probabilities between affected and discordant pairs. We varied numbers of parents available, numbers of affected and unaffected siblings, reconstructing the genotype of an unavailable affected sibling by a spouse and offspring, and elimination of sibships where the proband carries a mutation at another locus.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Power and efficiency were most affected by the number of affected sibs, the number of sib pairs genotyped, and the risk attributable to linked and unlinked loci. Genotyping unaffected siblings added little power for low penetrance models, but improved validity of tests when there was genetic heterogeneity and for multipoint testing. The efficiency of the concordant-only test was nearly always better than the concordant-discordant test. Replacement of an unavailable affected sibling by a spouse and offspring recovered some linkage information, particularly if several offspring were available. In multipoint analysis, the concordant-only test was showed a small anticonservative bias at 5 cM, while the multipoint concordant-discordant test was generally the most powerful test, and was not biased away from the null at 5 cM.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Genotyping parents and unaffected siblings is useful for detecting genotyping errors and if allele frequencies are uncertain. If adequate allele frequency data are available, we suggest a single-point affecteds-only analysis for an initial scan, followed by a multipoint analysis of affected and unaffected members of all available sibships with additional markers around initial hits.</p

Genetic Determinants of Lipid Traits in Diverse Populations from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study

For the past five years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of common variants associated with human diseases and traits, including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) levels. Approximately 95 loci associated with lipid levels have been identified primarily among populations of European ancestry. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study was established in 2008 to characterize GWAS–identified variants in diverse population-based studies. We genotyped 49 GWAS–identified SNPs associated with one or more lipid traits in at least two PAGE studies and across six racial/ethnic groups. We performed a meta-analysis testing for SNP associations with fasting HDL-C, LDL-C, and ln(TG) levels in self-identified European American (∼20,000), African American (∼9,000), American Indian (∼6,000), Mexican American/Hispanic (∼2,500), Japanese/East Asian (∼690), and Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian (∼175) adults, regardless of lipid-lowering medication use. We replicated 55 of 60 (92%) SNP associations tested in European Americans at p<0.05. Despite sufficient power, we were unable to replicate ABCA1 rs4149268 and rs1883025, CETP rs1864163, and TTC39B rs471364 previously associated with HDL-C and MAFB rs6102059 previously associated with LDL-C. Based on significance (p<0.05) and consistent direction of effect, a majority of replicated genotype-phentoype associations for HDL-C, LDL-C, and ln(TG) in European Americans generalized to African Americans (48%, 61%, and 57%), American Indians (45%, 64%, and 77%), and Mexican Americans/Hispanics (57%, 56%, and 86%). Overall, 16 associations generalized across all three populations. For the associations that did not generalize, differences in effect sizes, allele frequencies, and linkage disequilibrium offer clues to the next generation of association studies for these traits

Molecular understanding of sulphuric acid-amine particle nucleation in the atmosphere

4 pages 359-363 in the print version, additional 7 pages online.Peer reviewe

In Situ Characterization of Interfaces Relevant for Efficient Photoinduced Reactions

Solar energy conversion and photoinduced bioactive sensors are representing topical scientific fields, where interfaces play a decisive role for efficient applications. The key to specifically tune these interfaces is a precise knowledge of interfacial structures and their formation on the microscopic, preferably atomic scale. Gaining thorough insight into interfacial reactions, however, is particularly challenging in relevant complex chemical environment. This review introduces a spectrum of material systems with corresponding interfaces significant for efficient applications in energy conversion and sensor technologies. It highlights appropriate analysis techniques capable of monitoring critical physicochemical reactions in situ during non-vacuum preparation and photoactivity studies including well-defined inorganic epitaxial reference surfaces, buried interfaces, and low-defect nucleation of disjunct epitaxial materials that are analyzed during preparation in chemical vapor environment. Their surfaces are then modified and functionalized in gaseous and liquid environment. Finally, even more complex coupling of inorganic stable photoactive materials with responsive soft matter for bioactivity is reviewed. Interface formation, structure, and/or artificial photochemical interfacial reactions are scrutinized down to the atomic scale in real time, also accounting for equilibrium versus non-equilibrium, kinetically driven processes, in order to accelerate progresses in the realization of efficient energy materials and in the exploitation of photoinduced processes at interfaces